Bold Predictions for Big Ten Football in 2016
The college football season has all but wrapped and as far as the Big Ten is concerned, the 2015 campaign is already in the books.
And much like its predecessor, this past season was full of surprises, with no shortage of unexpected occurrences having taken place over the course of the past six months.
Who would have thought that Ohio State's loaded quarterback depth chart would ultimately hurt instead of help the Buckeyes? Or that the sack total of Penn State's Carl Nassib would eclipse that of Joey Bosa's?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Or what if I would have told you that at the end of the season, it was going to be Mark Dantonio and not Urban Meyer or Jim Harbaugh standing tall as Big Ten champion? Or that Iowa—yes, Iowa—would find itself one win away from crashing the College Football Playoff.
If there's anything we've learned in this new age of the Big Ten, it's to expect the unexpected each season. That will surely ring true in 2016, with the league possessing even more question marks than usual heading into the offseason.
What surprises are in store for the Big Ten in the coming year? We don't know. That's why they're called surprises. But it's never too early to take a stab at predicting the unpredictable when college football is concerned.
With that in mind, let's take a look at some bold predictions for the Big Ten in 2016.
Michigan will win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff
Considering the Wolverines figure to be a sexy preseason playoff pick for prognosticators, maybe this isn't all that bold of a prediction.
But there's a big difference between being picked to do something and actually following through.
That especially rings true for a Michigan program entering just its second season under Harbaugh. Despite finishing 10-3 on the year, the Wolverines placed third behind Michigan State and Ohio State in a loaded Big Ten East, and the conference as a whole may only be stronger in 2016.
But with the Buckeyes losing nine underclassmen to the NFL draft and a senior class that won 50 games over the course of the past four seasons and the Spartans now without star quarterback Connor Cook, the Big Ten East is there for the taking.
Returning a combined 14 starters on offense and defense from this past season, Michigan could be the team to take advantage of that opening. The Wolverines schedule sets up favorably in 2016 even as road dates with Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State all loom, and Michigan laid the groundwork in 2015 to make a jump in Harbaugh's second season in Ann Arbor.
"This set a foundation for us," running back De'Veon Smith said following the Wolverines' 41-7 Citrus Bowl win over Florida. "We gotta carry this over into 2016."
The Wolverines will likely only be afforded one regular-season loss and will need to win the Big Ten title game in order to crash the playoff. But with all that Michigan returns and the circumstances surrounding the rest of the conference, it's certainly in play for the Wolverines to make a big leap in 2016.
Michigan State will be out of playoff contention by Halloween
On the same note, if Michigan has the most to gain in the coming year, it's the Spartans who have the most to lose.
Yes, that's been a notion that's followed Michigan State for the better part of Mark Dantonio's tenure in East Lansing, with the Spartans typically rising to the occasion and continuing to defy the doubters. How else do you think MSU has continued to carry a chip on its shoulder, riding that mindset to an appearance in this year's College Football Playoff?
"For us, I think we played best when we are the underdog and nobody believes in us," Michigan State center Jack Allen said, per Bill Nichols of the Dallas Morning News. "It's when we thrive. There's no magic to it."
But with the eligibility of Cook and star defensive end Shilique Calhoun having expired, it simply seems improbable that the Spartans will be capable of maintaining their momentum in 2016. Quite frankly, Michigan State was lucky to find the success it did this past season, narrowly escaping close calls with Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa en route to its playoff appearance.
And while the Spartans' success has led to better recruiting, they simply have too many question marks to count on this year, the biggest being who will replace Cook as MSU's starting signal-caller. With a date with Notre Dame and a Big Ten opener against Wisconsin looming, the Spartans could find themselves out of playoff contention sooner rather than later in 2016.
Then again, this is exactly the position Michigan State prefers to be in.
D.J. Durkin will win Big Ten Coach of the Year
What do you get when you mix Urban Meyer with Jim Harbaugh?
Meet new Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin.
OK, maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a new head coach with a stronger coaching pedigree than Durkin, who served as Meyer's defensive coordinator at Florida before taking over the same position for Harbaugh at Michigan. In his lone season in Ann Arbor, Durkin helped engineer the Wolverines into the nation's fourth-ranked defense before being hired to take over the Terrapins program.
In College Park, Durkin will have his work cut out for him, taking over a 3-9 program that fired former head coach Randy Edsall midway through the 2015 campaign. More than that, Durkin now finds himself the head coach of a team in one of college football's toughest divisions, with annual games with Michigan State and his two former bosses in Meyer and Harbaugh on his schedule.
Nevertheless, Durkin remains confident in the direction of his new program.
"From the top down, if you have alignment and a culture when everyone is pushing in the same direction the sky is the limit," Durkin said in his introductory press conference. "With our recruiting base in our backyard, I know we can recruit the right talent to be here."
With a manageable out-of-conference schedule, Maryland could find itself riding a wave of momentum heading into an Oct. 22 date with Michigan State. The Terrapins will need to knock off one of their division's established leaders in order to truly make some noise in 2016, but if they do, Durkin would find himself the front-runner for Big Ten Coach of the Year in his debut campaign.
Nebraska will win the Big Ten West
All things considered, Nebraska was better than its 5-7 regular-season record indicated in 2015.
That was proved in the Cornhuskers' bowl game, where they knocked off UCLA by a score of 37-29 in the Foster Farms Bowl. According to SBNation.com's Bill Connelly, advanced stats show that Nebraska was better than its record showed in its first season under head coach Mike Riley, which was evidenced in its beatdown of the Bruins:
"With most of 2015's contributors returning—quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., most skill position complements, and 11 of the top 13 tacklers—this 6-7 team feels more like one a step from Big Ten West contention (as the numbers were suggesting even before the game), not one that bottomed out under a coach who shouldn't have been hired in the first place.
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A Sept. 17 date with Oregon will put the Cornhuskers to the test, but as far as the Big Ten is concerned, Nebraska will have a chance to reassert itself as one of the conference's top contenders. Back-to-back weeks against Ohio State and Wisconsin could prove to be the key to the Huskers' success in 2016, but if they can escape that stretch with just one loss, only a regular-season finale over reigning Big Ten West champ Iowa could stand between Nebraska and a trip to the Big Ten title game.
With one of the conference's most experienced quarterbacks and the bulk of the Cornhuskers' contributors returning, 2016 could prove to be the bounce-back year Nebraska needs. That could very well result in a division title for Riley's team, especially if it can maintain the momentum it found in its bowl-game upset this winter.
Ohio State's Curtis Samuel will be the Big Ten's top Heisman candidate
As far as Heisman Trophy contenders in the Big Ten are concerned, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett seems to be the best bet. After all, the Buckeyes quarterback finished fifth in voting for college football's most prestigious award in 2014 and seemed to be once again hitting his stride at the end of 2015.
But with a closer look at the Ohio State roster, Barrett might not even be the best Heisman Trophy candidate on his own team. He might not even be the best in his own backfield.
With all the talent the Buckeyes are losing to the NFL, Meyer's team will find itself leaning heavily on H-back Curtis Samuel. Having started his college career as a running back, Samuel transitioned to wideout in 2015, but could very well find himself once again receiving carries in the absence of Ezekiel Elliott.
That could lead to big numbers for the Brooklyn native, who totaled 421 yards of total offense (289 receiving yards, 132 rushing) and three touchdowns on a crowded roster in 2015. With proven playmakers otherwise lacking, the 5'11", 200-pounder will likely be Barrett's go-to guy, with his versatility making him a more attractive Heisman candidate.
As a focal point in one of the country's most electrifying offenses, Samuel will be one of college football's breakout stars in 2016. With that, he should receive some Heisman consideration—perhaps the most on the OSU roster.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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