Predicting Which NBA Players Will Have a Monster 2016
Few things in life are more invigorating than the calendar change at New Year's. It's the trigger point for so many to start making better choices, pursuing greater goals and a living a fuller life—or at least having the intention to do so.
Not all New Year's resolutions have staying power, but those that do can permanently alter one's trajectory. That's essentially what our crystal ball is prognosticating for the seven NBA players listed here.
The year of 2016 is shaping up to be theirs for the taking. All of them are ending 2015 on higher notes than they've ever reached, and each heads into January with the stars aligning for more steps to be taken sooner rather than later.
Only time and the basketball gods know how many of these rises will come to fruition, but measuring the statistics, eye-test results and situations for each player gives us no worse than an educated guess. There are key ingredients every candidate had to have: talent (obviously), some signs of box-score life (focusing more on quality than quantity) and opportunity (having enough minutes to actually break out).
Put all those elements together, and you're left with a stock almost guaranteed to soar in 2016.
Will Barton, Denver Nuggets
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Will Barton's task list sounds exhaustive.
"Rebounding, scoring, getting some assists, getting out and running, steals, anything," he said earlier this season, per Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post. "My job is to go fill the stat sheet up."
Consider it a job well done so far. Barton ranks among the Denver Nuggets' top four in points (16.7 per game, second), rebounds (6.0, third), assists (2.5, fourth) and steals (1.1, first). All of those are career highs for the four-year pro, who's averaging more than twice as many minutes as he did over his first three seasons (29.5, up from 13.2).
The energetic swingman—aptly dubbed "The Thrill"—will remember 2015 fondly. In February, he served as the centerpiece of the package the Portland Trail Blazers sent to Denver for Arron Afflalo. Barton then made the most of his minutes down the 2014-15 stretch, helping him score a three-year, $10.6 million deal over the summer.
What could make 2016 even sweeter? For starters, Nuggets coach Michael Malone is discovering there's no such thing as too much playing time for Barton. He logged 27.0 minutes per night through the first 20 games and has received 33.4 over the past 13.
There's also a very distinct possibility that he's just getting started.
He might have three-plus years of service on his resume, but he's never had a rotation place this prominent. And somehow, he seems incredibly comfortable with the increased workload. Over his last 14 games, he's tallied 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.0 steals—marks only three players are currently clearing: Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Paul George.
Allen Crabbe, Portland Trail Blazers
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Like Barton, Allen Crabbe's career crawled out of the gate, as the sharpshooter found himself buried behind Portland's talented, veteran-laden collection of wings.
But unlike Barton, Crabbe didn't have to leave Rose City to get his opportunity. When the Blazers parted with four starters and their sixth man this summer, the 23-year-old finally had room to breathe.
Or room to ball, rather. After seemingly starting this season as another face in the crowd on Portland's perimeter, Crabbe has entrenched himself in coach Terry Stotts' rotation. Crabbe got 21 minutes of action on opening night; he's averaged 28.8 over his last 12 outings.
"Crabbe has...emerged as an all-around crunch-time weapon for the Trail Blazers," wrote ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "He is more comfortable attacking off the bounce once Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum kicks to him, and his footwork on defense has improved massively since the first few weeks of the season."
Crabbe projects more as a complementary scorer than a go-to option, which is more than fine for a Blazers team getting 45.3 points a night from its starting backcourt. That also means Crabbe can be more selective, which has allowed him to notch his 10.9 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting (37.1 from three).
He should go crashing into the New Year with a constantly expanding role. He's flexed a considerable amount of three-and-D muscle through the early goings, and his evolving off-the-dribble game means that job title may not fit much longer.
Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics
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The scouting report on Boston Celtics swingman Jae Crowder runs two words long—does everything.
Guard multiple positions? Check. Score from every level? Check. Clean the glass, set the table, seal off passing lanes, fly in the open court?
Check, check, check and check.
"He's one of those contributors who manages to make an impact in every facet of the game," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "While continuing to serve as a defensive stopper, he's improved his shooting tremendously and has already asserted himself as a bargain for the Boston Celtics."
That's a $35 million bargain, by the way. His $6 million salary for this season puts him in a tie for 127th with Blazers wing Gerald Henderson. Crowder's 3.61 real plus-minus places him 25th overall, per ESPN.com, and fifth among small forwards behind only All-Star locks Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George.
The Celtics have outscored opponents by 6.2 points per 100 possessions when he plays and been outscored by 2.2 points per 100 possessions when he doesn't. The former would be the NBA's fourth-best net efficiency rating; the latter would be 20th.
The mention of Crowder's name may conjure up images of pesky defense and full-throttle hustle, but he's forcing everyone to take note of his scoring chops. He's reached double figures in 16 of his last 17 games, shooting 46.6 percent from the field, 36.8 from long range and 84.1 at the stripe.
Tyler Johnson, Miami Heat
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The Miami Heat uncovered two hidden gems last season, though the basketball world may have only noticed one.
Granted, it's the hardest one to miss. Between Hassan Whiteside's shot-blocking, rim-crushing and improbable rags-to-mega-riches-coming-shortly story, the 7-footer is almost impossible to overlook.
But Miami's second diamond in the rough—explosive combo guard Tyler Johnson—is quietly climbing onto everyone's radar. As the Heat's only sniper clearing 41 percent from range (45.2) and only regular outside of Whiteside hitting above 47 percent overall (50.4), Johnson is establishing himself as a proven and, more importantly, reliable commodity.
"Anything that he does now doesn't really surprise me," Chris Bosh told Bleacher Report earlier this season. "He's knocking down shots, he's getting guys involved and he's playing great defense."
Even with Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic in front of him, Johnson's involvement should continue trending up.
His shooting stroke is desperately needed, as the Heat have yet to find quantity (6.7 makes per game, 26th) or quality (33.2 percent, tied for 24th) from their perimeter attack. Beyond that, his versatility should separate him from Miami's other reserves. He's more athletic than Beno Udrih, more consistent than Gerald Green and a better shooter than Josh Richardson.
Bobby Portis, Chicago Bulls
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All Bobby Portis needed was an opening.
After nearly two months of waiting, the 22nd pick finally got it when Pau Gasol needed a breather after the Chicago Bulls' four-overtime marathon. Portis cleared the 20-minute mark for the first time since Dec. 19 and immediately delivered a masterful 20-point, 11-rebound performance.
Thanks to that effort—and Joakim Noah's shoulder sprain—Portis has been locked into the rotation since. And his play keeps begging for a bigger role. During the three outings he's received at least 20 minutes of burn, and he's averaged 16 points on 52.5 percent shooting and nine rebounds.
"The kid's got no concern, just thrives and has all kinds of confidence," Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said, per CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill. "You love to see that. He's not gonna back down from anybody."
Including, apparently, his teammates on Chicago's crowded frontcourt.
With Gasol, Noah, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic all factoring into the equation, the Bulls may have viewed the 20-year-old Portis as a long-term investment. But he's proving he can be both their present and future.
He has walking-double-double potential, and his scoring arsenal already runs from the post to the perimeter. With one foot in the door, it's only a matter of time before the rest of his 6'11" frame bursts through. Chicago's interior won't be overpopulated forever—the trade market is always open and both Noah and Gasol could test the free-agent waters this summer.
Lance Thomas, New York Knicks
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Lance Thomas left Duke after celebrating a national championship in 2010. Almost six years later, he seems to have finally found his NBA calling.
Adding a steady three-point stroke flipped the script of his basketball story. Once a journeyman who spent time in both the NBA D-League and China, he's suddenly become an unlikely fixture for the New York Knicks.
His defense and energy made him a favorite of head coach Derek Fisher last season, who entrusted Thomas with 26 minutes a night. But his game has reached new heights this season, thanks in no small part to his grueling summer efforts.
Marc Berman of the New York Post explained:
"In the offseason, Thomas added range to his jump shot, becoming a legitimate 3-point threat. Training in New Orleans, Thomas said he was lofting 500 to 600 shots a day, sometimes twice that if he did a two-a-day session.
Thomas gained 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason, with a renewed dedication to weightlifting. Defense, hustle and 3-point shooting have kept him in Fisher’s penthouse.
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Thomas is well past the point of a hot start. Through 700 minutes, he's sporting strong shooting marks from the field (48.6), three (42.4) and the foul line (89.2). His defense has been suffocating (opponents are shooting 5.7 points worse against him than they do on average), and his impact has been substantial (the Knicks are 3.0 points better per 100 possessions with him than without).
And still it seems there are bigger and brighter days ahead for the 27-year-old as he continues to see his role increased.
T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
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T.J. Warren needs more minutes.
That's been clear since last season, when the then-rookie erupted for 14.4 points per 36 minutes on 52.8 percent shooting. But it's only grown more apparent during this campaign, as the scoring forward has elevated his game—and the Phoenix Suns have come dangerously close to a raging dumpster fire.
Warren is a professional scorer. Through 73 career outings, he's sporting a brilliant 51.7 field-goal percentage. More importantly, he's already transformed himself from a reluctant long-range shooter to a willing-and-able one. He tried 21 triples last season and only connected on five (23.8 percent); this time around, he's 17-of-42 (40.5).
Already a crafty cutter, adding the spot-up three ball to his arsenal would make him the perfect low-maintenance complement to the Suns' ball-dominant backcourt of Brandon Knight and (when he's healthy) Eric Bledsoe.
"For a 22-year-old, Warren's offensive basketball IQ is tremendous," wrote Bright Side of the Sun's Samuel Cooper. "He knows where to place himself on offense seemingly every possession."
When Warren plays, he produces. His per-36-minute stat line now features 18.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.1 assists. His defense needs work, but that's true of many young players (and Suns players).
With Bledsoe gone until training camp, Phoenix has to embrace the youthful portion of its rotation. That means more minutes for Warren—and more buckets for the Suns.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Dec. 30.
