The NBA's Stars of Tomorrow at Every Position
The NBA is always improving.
It's a matter of simple math. There are a finite number of roster spots and constant competition for them, which forces older, less skilled players out of the league at the hands of future standouts with more upside.
The product gets slightly better. Then rinse and repeat.
Some of the hopefuls pan out as low-level starters or career backups, while others enter the realm of stars. It's the latter group we're interested in, having picked out the young men who have the most potential for greatness based on a combination of offensive excellence and defensive prowess.
In order to qualify, players can't have celebrated their 26th birthday yet. They also can't have made an All-Star squad, nor can they be a legitimate threat to earn a berth during the 2015-16 campaign.
But rest assured. They'll get there.
Point Guard: Cory Joseph
1 of 5
Team: Toronto Raptors
Age: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 13.4 PER
Given the wealth of talent at point guard, it's tough to believe we don't have too many can't-miss prospects at what's arguably become the most glamorous spot in the lineup. But because the established starters are so entrenched in their roles, it's tough for the up-and-comers to get on the court and shine.
Elfrid Payton, Dennis Schroder, Marcus Smart, Emmanuel Mudiay (yes, despite the struggles he's endured as a rookie) and D'Angelo Russell are all valid choices, but the real standout is a 24-year-old currently serving as Kyle Lowry's backup.
Just as was the case with the San Antonio Spurs, Cory Joseph is thriving as a defensive stopper, helping the Toronto Raptors allow 4.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. But the young floor general is also coming into his own on offense, looking more comfortable despite filling a larger, more crucial role. It's notable that the Raptors' offensive rating only dips from 107.5 to 106.3 when he plays, and his minutes often have him replacing a fringe MVP candidate (Lowry).
Joseph hasn't shot particularly well during his first season north of the border, but his offensive value will only rise as his percentages regress to career norms. That's particularly true between three and 10 feet, where he's knocked down only 34.5 percent of his looks this year despite having hit 43.1 percent of those shots over the previous three full seasons.
His ability to keep his turnovers in control and play within the flow of the Toronto offense has made him an asset on the scoring end, not a detriment. And right now, it's tough to find other young point guards with so much two-way upside.
Shooting Guard: C.J. McCollum
2 of 5
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 20.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 18.5 PER
During the 2015-16 season, only 14 qualified players are averaging at least 20 points and four assists per game. If you limit the field to include only those who have also produced no fewer than three rebounds and one steal per contest, the list grows smaller still:
- Eric Bledsoe
- Stephen Curry
- DeMar DeRozan
- Paul George
- James Harden
- Reggie Jackson
- LeBron James
- Kyle Lowry
- C.J. McCollum
- Russell Westbrook
Granted, C.J. McCollum has the luxury of playing for a Portland Trail Blazers squad with low expectations and the ability to hand him serious offensive responsibility. He's one of the few true scoring threats in Rip City, which has allowed him to assert himself as a legitimate candidate for Most Improved Player.
But it's still not easy to produce these counting stats. If it were, we'd see more players do so for middling squads, not a list composed almost entirely of marquee stars.
"C.J. worked very hard his first two years here. But he learned the NBA game and put in a lot of time to have the type of success he is having right now," Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told the Associated Press, per NBA.com, after the young 2-guard put up 35 points, 11 rebounds and nine dimes in a victory over the Sacramento Kings on Sunday.
The success isn't just going to stop, even if McCollum finds it difficult to replicate that noteworthy line.
Small Forward: Jae Crowder
3 of 5
Team: Boston Celtics
Age: 25
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 13.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 15.3 PER
Jae Crowder isn't just the future at small forward. He's also the present.
According to my total points added database (which is explained in full throughout this article), Crowder is on pace to be more valuable than all but 22 players in the Association. He's directly behind John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and Tim Duncan. The only natural 3s ahead of him, in order, are Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George.
ESPN.com's real plus-minus has him in a similar spot, at No. 25 in the NBA and No. 5 at his position, behind the same aforementioned quartet.
Crowder doesn't produce glamorous statistics, but he's one of those contributors who manages to make an impact in every facet of the game. While continuing to serve as a defensive stopper, he's improved his shooting tremendously and has already asserted himself as a bargain for the Boston Celtics, who inked him to a five-year, $35 million contract this offseason.
"I'm just being aggressive, believing in my work," the 25-year-old told Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald. "My teammates believe in me. I feel like I'm seeing the game at a different side than I've ever saw it before at this level.
"It's a work in progress for me, and I watch a lot of film and try to get better with every game."
So far, that mission has been a success. Now, even if Crowder stagnates for the rest of his career, he'd remain one of the most valuable players at his position.
Power Forward: Kristaps Porzingis
4 of 5
Team: New York Knicks
Age: 20
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 13.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.0 blocks, 18.2 PER
Coming into the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis was supposed to struggle on the boards, when guarding the rim and when working out of the post, largely because his lack of strength would hold him back against bigger opponents.
That hasn't been the case.
Though Porzingis is mired in a bit of a shooting slump, he's still shown off his impressive range and shot-making ability throughout his rookie season with the New York Knicks. And all the while, he's proved himself well ahead of the curve by turning some of his supposed weaknesses into strengths.
First, he's averaging 8.2 rebounds despite playing just 27.5 minutes during his typical outing. That not only puts him on pace to produce 10.7 boards per 36 minutes, but his 16.1 total rebounding percentage ranks third among all qualified first-year players, behind only Karl-Anthony Towns (18.7) and Nikola Jokic (16.1).
Though Porzingis has produced brief flashes of competence on post-up plays, he's only in the 23rd percentile in points per possession, per NBA.com's SportVU data. That remains a legitimate weakness, but his third purported flaw hasn't actually been a negative.
SportVU reveals that Porzingis has held opponents to 47.2 percent shooting around the rim, and that's with him facing 6.8 attempts per game. Nylon Calculus has him saving 4.18 points per 36 minutes at the hoop, which ranks just inside the NBA's top 50. That's not noteworthy in a vacuum, but it does prove this high-upside prospect is ahead of schedule.
Center: Karl-Anthony Towns
5 of 5
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 20
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.9 blocks, 21.9 PER
"[Karl-Anthony] Towns has been everything we expected and more as a rookie," Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com wrote while arguing that Towns has more potential than anyone else in this year's rookie class. "Shaquille O'Neal is the only rookie age 20 or younger as of Feb. 1 to post a better player efficiency rating than Towns has this season (22.4), according to Basketball-Reference.com. He looks like a superstar, and sooner rather than later."
Towns' PER has since fallen to 21.9, which puts him behind both O'Neal and Chris Paul in the 20-and-under category. But Pelton's point still stands, as the young big man is brushing shoulders with some rather elite company.
It's only because the Western Conference frontcourts are stacked with established studs that Towns isn't going to draw legitimate All-Star consideration in 2015-16. He's already playing like he belongs in the midseason festivities, producing across the board while maintaining stunning levels of efficiency.
My total points added metric shows he's on pace to add more points than all but 51 players in the league, and that's despite the Minnesota Timberwolves keeping him on the bench a bit too frequently. ESPN.com's real plus-minus is a bit sour on his offense, which dropped him to No. 89 overall on that list—but it's still a respectable spot for a 20-year-old rookie.
What can't Towns already do?
He's a rim-protecting, shot-blocking threat on defense with quick feet and good instincts. He's already spacing the court with his perimeter jumper on the other end, while NBA.com's SportVU has him in the 62nd percentile on post-up plays, the 91st percentile on isolations and the 86th percentile in transition.
As Towns develops his timing on pick-and-roll plays and continues to work on his jumper, he'll become more dangerous. And he's already tantalizingly close to being a complete package.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam's own databases and are current heading into games on Dec. 29.
