Premier League Preview: Time for Arsenal to Show True Title Credentials

To use an analogy I originally penned for Field Matchday in 2013 and is still apt today, the American comic strip Peanuts ran for 49 years, three months and a day. A reoccurring panel saw Charlie Brown repeatedly humbled by his nemesis, Lucy. On cue, she would yank an American football away from him just as he was about to kick it.

Never once in nigh on half a century did Peanuts creator Charles M. Schulz allow his central character to strike the ball. The closest he got was once making contact with Lucy's arm, for which he apologised profusely.

It is open to interpretation whether this oft repeated act was a celebratory metaphor for the eternal optimism of our Everyman hero or, alternatively, a sententious lament over the futility of striving for an unachievable goal. All of which, in a roundabout way, brings us to Arsene Wenger, Arsenal and Premier League title bids.

Since winning a third crown in seven seasons by going the whole 2003/04 campaign unbeaten, Arsenal have been trapped in a perpetual loop where each new start becomes indistinguishable from the last. Quoting from my Field Matchday article, "The writer Rainer Maria Rilke was on the money when proffering the view 'beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror' and so it has proved for Arsenal in the fallow years that have followed those of the halcyon variety."

Lighting candles outside the Emirates Stadium for those supporters who see Wenger as holding the club back is rare among neutrals given successive FA Cup triumphs, yet there are many who see such highs as being mere scraps from English football's top table. Arsenal were no better than a windy Labrador then, clutching Wenger to their bosom as Linus did a security blanket that had seen better days, as I noted in 2013.

Wenger teams have hit the front on countless occasions. Invariably, though, come May, opinion is split on whether the glue factory is in fact the best place for an undeniably classy mare, but one that lacks the blinkered outlook of other thoroughbreds. All too often, they set out of the traps like Red Rum before woozily concluding the race as if they've polished off a bottle of the Caribbean's finest en route to the finish line.

In early February of both 2008 and 2014, Arsenal topped the Premier League table. Five- and two-point advantages at the summit were ultimately relinquished, as miserable climaxes saw them finish in third and fourth place, respectively.

They are not isolated incidents for the prettiest but not necessarily the smartest in the class. In 2010 and 2011, Arsenal were similarly profligate in squandering gilt-edged opportunities for the title.

Faces on the field have come and gone, but on the touchline, Wenger has been the constant. Channeling Charlie Brown, he manages to be at once a wide-eyed innocent and world-weary cynic, an optimistic pessimist to the core. For years, it was Sir Alex Ferguson who was cast as his Lucy before the specialist in failure saw Jose Mourinho more often than not whip that darn football from his boot.

To draw on my 2013 metaphor one last time, Wenger could be forgiven for seeking solace at the booth in which Lucy offers psychiatric advice for $5. It'd do a roaring trade outside the Emirates if fish and chips can command £14.50.

The landscape is changing, though.

It may be more about the rest of the Premier League's mediocrity than any deep metamorphosis on Arsenal's part—Wenger's side is only two points better off this term than from the corresponding fixtures last season—yet there is an overwhelming feeling that Monday night's victory over Manchester City saw a seismic shift in the title race.

Arsenal had just 41.2 per cent of possession against City in a performance that showed a refined approach that has all too often been absent from Wenger sides previously preoccupied with aesthetics and domination of the ball over results. There's plenty of experience in Arsenal's XI, so naivety in terms of game management surely stops at the manager's door.

It was January's victory at the Etihad Stadium that set the blueprint for beating the best teams, both domestically and in Europe. Rather than go toe-to-toe, exchanging haymakers with heavyweights, Arsenal are now content to sit deep with a tight defensive line and then swiftly counter-attack with both economy and precision.

"Last season when we played at City we showed we could play a different kind of game plan," defender Per Mertesacker said, via the Telegraph's Luke Brown. He continued:

"

That is something we had in the locker already, but this year we are more consistent, and it is what is making us better as a unit. That is what we are doing well at the moment.

But it requires a lot of concentration and work in training and everyone in the game has to be up for the challenge. When I see our players up front working as hard as they did today, that makes a difference for us defenders, for example.

"

The apologetic Arsenal that would open the front door for opponents, invite them in for a beer before realizing the flat-screen TV set and three points had been pilfered out the back door has been replaced with a controlled and steelier version. No team has conceded fewer league goals than Arsenal, with the 14 they have shipped making their back four the joint-stingiest with Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

Southampton vs. Arsenal, Saturday at 7:45 p.m. GMT

The Gunners have lost just once in 11 Premier League matches heading into a Boxing Day trip to Southampton. When allied to the fact Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla, Jack Wilshere, Francis Coquelin, Danny Welbeck and Tomas Rosicky make up the league's best crocked six-a-side team, and will all presumably play a part at some point, it's little wonder the bookmakers have now installed them as title favourites.

Remarkably, Joel Campbell is the only Arsenal outfield player not to have suffered an injury in the calendar year.

It won't be lost on anyone at Arsenal that it was a 2-0 defeat at St Mary's on New Year's Day last season that effectively ended the meekest of title challenges. Southampton have lost four of their last five games, though, and they are winless since the first week of November. This is classic banana-skin territory for Arsenal.

If a plume of smoke is seen billowing out of the away side's shower area, back Southampton, as Wojciech Szczesny must be back in goal for the Gunners. An increasingly despondent Ronald Koeman will cite Southampton's four-game unbeaten run at home to Arsenal as cause for optimism—less so the fact Wenger's side have only ever lost once on Boxing Day.

Leicester City remain two points clear at the top, yet Claudio Ranieri is willing to concede you rarely see a broke bookie. The Italian, who takes his side to Liverpool on Boxing Day, is a little too long in the tooth to get carried away, per the Telegraph. That five of the past six clubs to be top of the tree on Christmas Day have finished as champions is not enough to adjust his primary target of 40 points for the season.

"

I agree with the people who say our run will end, when they say Arsenal or Manchester City is the favourite.

For me, Arsenal is the favourite because they have fantastic players. Our team is a young team, it’s the first time we’re top of the league, we aren’t used to staying there.

For this reason it’s important for me they don’t think about [it]. It’s like a climber. If you look below: 'Ah, my God!'

"

In beating both Manchester clubs at the Emirates this season, and having taken points off Liverpool and Tottenham, there has been a definite improvement against the traditional challengers for Arsenal.

As a delayed catalyst for a title-winning campaign, the impact Mesut Ozil is having in his third season in north London is starting to recall when Eric Cantona pitched up in Manchester from Leeds United in November 1992. Wearing double denim and reeking of eau du insouciance, Cantona made a good side a great one. While Ozil lacks the force of personality of the Frenchman, he's no less talented.

Ozil has always milked the world's hipster gland with a depth to his passing that is perhaps best summed up as abstract, such are its subtleties in tone and vision. It's taken a little while longer for the heathens who worship at the altar of endeavour to embrace the udder of invention.

When tracking back, he looks as though he should be wearing a sun visor while carrying a book in one hand and a bottle of Corona in the other, but he's certainly not all guile and no graft. He plays the game as if privy to a secret grid that maps out the pitch before him and allows him to find angles lesser players couldn't pick if they took to the field wearing protractors instead of boots.

As Mark Twain once opined: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." But even the American has conceded Ozil's numbers are making David Moyes' assertion that "the jury is still out a bit [on Ozil]," per the Independent, sound like the words of a pale, red-headed man who must have used too little sun cream when spending his downtime as Real Sociedad boss on the beach in San Sebastian.

Ozil's assists against City that laid on goals for Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud mean he has now contributed 15 in 16 Premier League matches this term. The Premier League record is 20, set by Thierry Henry in 2002/03.

The German has put on a staggering 67 chances for his team-mates. That's some 20 more than any other player in England's top flight (West Ham United's Dimitri Payet is next, on 46), while no other player in any of Europe's top leagues can match his numbers. He's not a flat-track bully, either, having provided an assist against each of the current top six.

Talking of numbers, if we must, Giroud averages a goal every 105.8 minutes this season. Not too shabby given the amount of vitriol he receives, presumably for not being Lionel Messi.

Wenger deserves immense credit for nailing his colours to Ozil's mast amid criticism that the playmaker was yet another example of the Frenchman's obsession with adding another layer of gold to the most gilded of sides. This season, he's built his team around him, and whereas some managers would stymie such extravagant gifts by shunting him wide, Ozil has been encouraged to operate centrally to cause maximum damage.

Here he extolled the virtues of the German, per the Daily Echo.

"

In football you need one guy who gives the ball to the one who scores the goal.

In our team, most of the time, Ozil is this player. The guys who sees makes you win, and he is that.

Ozil is much more mature now, much more keen to take responsibility. I believe he's developed his physical attributes and commitment. You can see his desire to win. He plays to win the game.

His talent is exceptional and he realises he can help us in every single game.

"

When Wenger gets moist-eyed about football's ability to transcend its natural parameters to become an art form, it's usually after he's spent the previous evening in a dark room with only a glass of red and an Ozil compilation DVD for company.

If he can keep his key man fit and finally get over the fact you can't win the Premier League by treating the club's money as your own, this may—whisper it quietly—finally be Arsenal's year.

Stoke City vs. Manchester United, Saturday at 12:45 p.m. GMT: All Eyes on Louis van Gaal After Press Conference Rant Flounce Strop

"

It wasn't bizarre, it wasn't a rant, it wasn't a meltdown and he didn't storm out. He made a few good points about basic human decency tho.

— Rob Smyth (@robsmyth0) December 23, 2015"

Liverpool vs. Leicester City, Saturday at 3 p.m. GMT: Can the Foxes Outsmart Klopp and Company?

"

Jordan Ibe misplaces a pass. Klopp offers him his glasses. https://t.co/gcen7gk7MW

— Football Vines (@FootballVines) December 23, 2015"

Chelsea vs. Watford, Saturday at 3 p.m. GMT: Gorgeous Guus Back at the Bridge

Manchester City vs. Sunderland, Saturday at 3 p.m. GMT: Both Sides Desperate for Upturn in Results

All stats from WhoScored.com unless otherwise noted.