Texans vs. Colts: Full Houston Week 15 Preview
People who write articles like this or do talk radio on a daily or weekly basis have an odd tendency to label games as "must win" or as the most important of the season when they're clearly not, but for this week both of those labels are absolutely fair and true for the Houston Texans.
If the Texans want to keep their playoff chances alive and keep playing past the first weekend of January, they must do what they've never done before in franchise history: defeat the Colts in Indianapolis.
Improving their record at Indianapolis to 1-13 would be nothing to brag about, but finally winning there would help forgive some of the many sins of the past. The Texans should have ended the road losing streak to their division rival in 2011, but somehow found a way to lose to Dan Orlovsky.
It's still difficult to figure out how that happened. Dan Orlovsky?
Winning this game and getting into the playoffs won't completely erase the bad memories from their embarrassing losses in Atlanta and Miami, but it should help fans feel better about the ability of the players and coaches to finish strong and overcome adversity for a second season in a row.
A near-.500 record is a near-.500 record, but it's at least nice to see the Texans fight and not fold up when faced with a difficult stretch of games.
Making the playoffs with a 9-7 or 8-8 record wouldn't make them a great team or even a team on the rise, but not making the playoffs because they couldn't beat Andrew Luck's backup, in a season when he played only seven games, would be a difficult stench to wash off for most fans.
The Texans will have many pressing issues to deal with in the offseason, like finding a franchise quarterback and improving the running game, but finally getting a win at Indianapolis and winning the division would at least let them head into that part of the NFL calendar with their heads held high.
Please, for the sanity of Texans fans everywhere, just win this game.
Week 14 Results and Recap
1 of 6
The Texans defense held Tom Brady to his lowest passing total of the season by 49 yards, the Patriots as a team to their second-lowest total yards of the season and their running game to only 3.7 yards per carry, but Houston still managed to lose the game by a convincing 21-point margin.
How that oddity happened is pretty basic in that they failed to execute in any of the basic areas of the game.
The Texans gave up too many sacks in the passing game, failed to stick with what was working in the running game by going to Wildcat formations that had no prayer of working and gave the Patriots too many short fields with turnovers and bad punt coverage.
They also left points on the field with two underthrows from Brian Hoyer on deep passes to Nate Washington, which could have resulted in touchdowns had the passes been on time and put out in front.
It'll be hard for them to beat the other teams in the mediocre AFC South playing like that, much less the defending Super Bowl champs.
Not to make excuses for poor play, but we all know by now that Hoyer is a limited quarterback, so getting mad at him for not executing like Brady is probably a waste of time. However, some of the other failures, especially with the coaching staff, were inexcusable.
For the second week in a row now, Bill O'Brien has taken timeouts into the locker room at halftime that could have helped the team prevent or add points to the scoreboard before the break.
Against Buffalo, O'Brien foolishly let time roll off the clock after a 2nd-and-goal play from the Bills, when one of their two timeouts would have left them time to score on the following possession.
On a play that also came right before the half, O'Brien watched the Patriots predictably split Rob Gronkowski out wide near the goal line and throw a nearly uncontested touchdown pass on a route that everyone in the building and watching on TV saw coming.
The Texans once again had two timeouts at the time, so why not use one when you see Gronkowski about to exploit an obvious mismatch against solo man coverage by one of your safeties?
It was obvious what the Patriots were trying to do, and it was even more obvious that the play call and personnel on the field wouldn't be able to stop it, so why not use a timeout with under 30 seconds left and come up with a plan to take away that throw and force Brady to look elsewhere?
Using a timeout wouldn't have helped the Patriots, given the down-and-distance situation, and you can't roll over the timeouts into the second half, so what exactly was the downside to using one?
There was nothing complex about either situation, just simple clock-management and awareness mistakes that even inexperienced coaches shouldn't be making by a guy in his fourth season as a head coach at some level.
Speaking of awareness mistakes that no coach should be making, why were J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the other starters still playing late in the game with the margin clearly too big to overcome?
Maybe it's unrealistic to pull all the starters, but what's the point of keeping veteran players or players with injury concerns in the game? What potential gain are you getting that comes anywhere close to making up for the huge potential risk?
Watt had just broken his hand earlier that week, and Clowney has had frequent injury problems his entire career, so why risk injury to them during garbage time when the score was out of reach? Did O'Brien seriously not learn anything from the mistake with Arian Foster in the Miami game?
It's bad enough that O'Brien was foolish enough to believe he could trick a veteran defense led by Bill Belichick with gadget plays like the Wildcat that had been on tape for weeks or still not understand basic clock management, but risking injury like that to key players is truly coaching malpractice.
O'Brien obviously does many things well, but he still has a lot of growing and learning to do and really owes his team an apology or two for some of these inexcusable mistakes.
News and Notes
2 of 6
Andrew Luck Out At Least Another Week
The Texans will once again catch a break when facing the Colts this season, as it has been announced that Andrew Luck will miss this game. Luck hasn't played since Week 9 against Denver.
"No surprise: Colts HC Chuck Pagano just told reporters that QB Andrew Luck will not play on Sunday. Luck returned to practice today.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 16, 2015"
Not facing one of the best young quarterbacks in the league should give a fanbase some confidence, but unfortunately, his backup tore the Texans up back in October, so for many that uneasy feeling of doubt wasn't soothed by this news.
Matt Hasselbeck got beat up physically by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week but is still probable to make the start against Houston. Hasselbeck not only had his best game of the season the last time the Texans and Colts played but had his best game since the 2011 season when he helped the Titans defeat Houston.
The Texans had nothing to play for in that 2011 finale against Tennessee, but still it had been nearly four years since Hasselbeck had a game with over 60 percent completion, a QB rating better than 100, over 200 yards passing, two touchdowns or more and no interceptions.
Hasselbeck later went on to post similar numbers against Tampa Bay this season, but the Texans' being at one point the only team in five years to allow big games to an aging quarterback, and to do it twice, was depressing.
Father Time is undefeated, as they say, but the Texans also gave up season-best performances to fellow aging veterans Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in that earlier loss this season. Maybe the sight of the Texans uniform is some odd fountain of youth for older Colts players.
Latest Injury News
3 of 6
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (12/16): pic.twitter.com/Vkz3j0sAFw
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 16, 2015
"
For the third week in a row, the Texans will enter their game with only one significant name on their injury report that wasn't already on IR.
Last week it was offensive guard Brandon Brooks, but now the man he's paid to protect will miss this game while going through the NFL concussion protocol.
Via Drew Dougherty of HoustonTexans.com, O'Brien said of Brian Hoyer after Wednesday's practice, "Still in the protocol. Not to speak for him, but I think he is feeling better. He's not going to play on Sunday."
Hoyer was beat up last week by the New England Patriots, who sacked Houston quarterbacks six times along with 10 other hits on the passer during a dominant defensive performance.
The Texans will once again turn to veteran backup T.J. Yates, who helped them win important games against Cincinnati and the New York Jets earlier this season.
Yates is a limited quarterback who even in wins often completes right at or less than 50 percent of his passes, but whether it's coincidence or not, he's been on the winning side for arguably the two biggest wins in franchise history.
Like the two wins Case Keenum had last year, Yates isn't exactly "leading" the team to victory in a traditional sense with his own great play, but he doesn't get rattled, which has to help the confidence of his teammates, and he's able to do just enough to win when the defense and running around him is working.
That's not to say the Texans are winning in spite of Yates, like was arguably the case with Keenum, but even the most optimistic fan has to realize that asking Yates to carry the team to victory with a great individual performance like those of Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers is unlikely and unreasonable.
If the defense doesn't play well and the Texans aren't able to get efficient work out of the running game, Yates isn't capable of winning a pass-happy shootout against the Colts or probably any other team.
Any stat on his performance will be based on a small sample size because of how little he's played, but one touchdown against six interceptions when passing on third or fourth down is further proof of his limitations.
Take this as reality and not an insult, but Yates needs favorable conditions to succeed. If the opposing defense is able to ignore a running game that isn't working and put Yates into predictable passing situations, he doesn't have the talent to overcome those scenarios.
However, if the run game is able to pick up over four yards a carry and the defense holds Indianapolis to 21 points or less, then the Texans will have a chance to win this game. If not, don't get upset over false expectations for the team's fourth quarterback.
Injury updates and stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Key Matchups
4 of 6
Slowing Down T.Y. Hilton
T.Y. Hilton didn't have his normal huge game against the Texans when the two teams met back in October, but he still had 88 yards on five receptions, which included a 43-yard catch on a 3rd-and-6 play with less than two minutes remaining.
That play forced the Texans to use their final timeout and allowed the Colts to kneel the ball out of the victory formation three times to end the game. It also further cemented Hilton's place as one of the biggest "Texans killers" in the league.
In seven career games against Houston, Hilton is averaging 5.7 receptions for 107 receiving yards per game with six touchdowns. Not surprisingly, those averages are all his best marks against any team he's played more than twice over his career.
Donte Moncrief has emerged as another dangerous target for the Colts passing game, but stopping the offense begins with at least slowing down the speedy Hilton.
Running Against Jerrell Freeman
The talented linebacker missed the earlier matchup against Houston and is coming back from injury after missing several recent games, but he has proved capable of causing problems for opposing offenses.
Freeman is the Colts' top-rated defensive player and the fourth-best inside linebacker overall this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Like most inside linebackers, Freeman isn't great in coverage but has been excellent against the run this season when healthy enough to get on the field. Freeman ranks second in the league for inside linebackers in stop percentage (the percentage of plays on which a player is responsible for a stop when in run defense).
He's also only missed three tackles this season and ranks fourth in combined tackling efficiency, according to PFF.
Texans' X-Factor of the Week
5 of 6
DeAndre Hopkins
Over the Texans' first 10 games of the season, DeAndre Hopkins averaged eight receptions, 104 yards and one touchdown per game. Over their last three games, his average has dropped to just four receptions for 59 yards per game with only one total touchdown.
There's no need for deep analysis here: Hopkins is by far their best skill position player on offense and has to have a big game for the team to succeed.
Opposing defenses have unsurprisingly started to double him heavily with safety help ever since Hopkins abused Darrelle Revis in single man coverage in Week 11. That in turn seemed to make Brian Hoyer very cautious in forcing the ball to him against double coverage, which is reasonable given his skill level.
He's been targeted eight, nine and six times over their last three games since the double-teaming started, after receiving at least 10 targets during each of their first 10 games this year.
Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington and Ryan Griffin have to make plays when Hopkins is facing a double team, but the quarterback also needs to be more willing to give Hopkins a chance with his amazing hands and leaping ability.
It's been said before, but 50-50 balls to Hopkins are more like 70-30 in his favor because of his extraordinary ability to outwork his defender and high-point the football with great leaping ability and timing, as well as his large catch radius and ability to make one-handed catches when necessary.
At the very least, Hopkins should be the target on any jump ball toward the end zone. Why the Texans threw one to Washington last week, which he dropped, instead of Hopkins, was confusing.
The Texans are 5-2 this season when Hopkins catches a touchdown pass but just 1-5 when he doesn't.
They must make an effort to feed him the ball more.
Prediction
6 of 6
Forget about the Texans 0-13 record at Indianapolis; this game won't be decided on the basis of past outcomes. Seriously, why is saying that they've never won there a logical reason as to why they can't win this individual game?
What does a game from 2005 or 2007 with completely different rosters and coaching staffs have to do with what will happen on the field in 2015?
In 2015, the Texans defense has played much better than the Colts defense, Matt Hasselbeck is banged up and hasn't played well over his last two games and Indianapolis hasn't rushed for over 100 yards as a team since a November 8 win over the Denver Broncos.
Indianapolis ranks 29th in both points and yards allowed, is playing a banged up second-string quarterback and can't run the ball, so why would we overlook all of those trends and stats just because the Texans haven't won there before?
The Texans obviously have their own flaws and have given plenty of reason for fans to doubt them, but if their defense plays well this week, they should win the game.
Prediction: Texans 17, Colts 9
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
