Best Bets for 2015-16 College Football Bowl Season
Bowl season is handicapping Christmas, which is fitting since it falls across…well, actual Christmas.
Starting December 19, there will be a record 40 bowl games in 15 days. Some might argue that's a glut, especially with 5-7 teams such as Nebraska in the field, but even if that's true, who cares? The offseason approaches, so soak in all the football you can.
To help with that, I've narrowed down my eight favorite bets of bowl season. That's one pick for every five games. They range from smaller bowls with non-Power Five teams to New Year's bowls and College Football Playoff games.
Everywhere you look, there is value.
You just need to know how to find it.
South Florida vs. Western Kentucky (-2.5)
1 of 8
The Game: Miami Beach Bowl — Friday, December 21
South Florida is decent, but Western Kentucky is good—and not just for a Conference USA team. The Hilltoppers are legitimately good.
They rank No. 14 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, ahead of the runner-up from all five major conferences (North Carolina, Iowa, Oklahoma State/TCU, USC and Florida). They average 520 yards and 44 points per game and have the firepower to erase small deficits.
That's what happened in the C-USA Championship Game, when they beat Southern Miss 45-28. The Golden Eagles led 21-7 through 20 minutes but were hopeless once Western Kentucky turned the jets on.
"They’ve got a really good football team," Southern Miss head coach Todd Monken told reporters after the game. "That’s the way it is. You play a good football team and make the mistakes that we made. We got worn out in the second half."
Hilltoppers quarterback Brandon Doughty is an NFL prospect with an accurate arm. South Florida improved throughout the season, but it still lost by 18 points at Maryland (pre-Randy Edsall firing).
It's hard to get that taste out of my mouth.
The Pick: Western Kentucky (-2.5)
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan (-3)
2 of 8
The Game: Popeyes Bahamas Bowl — Thursday, December 24
Is it regional bias that gives Sun Belt teams, which play and recruit in the southeast, more respect than MAC teams, which play and recruit in the midwest?
If not, why is this line so short?
Western Michigan ranks No. 48 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings. That's one spot ahead of Auburn. Middle Tennessee ranks No. 81 by the same metric. That's one spot ahead of Syracuse.
How many points would Auburn lay to Syracuse?
Exactly.
Western Michigan is the better team and will play hard for head coach P.J. Fleck, whose name surfaced for bigger jobs this offseason. Fleck stayed committed to the Broncos, who are sure to return that loyalty and end the season with a quality effort.
Quarterback Zach Terrell and wide receivers Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman could all play and start at bigger programs.
The Pick: Western Michigan (-3)
Memphis vs. Auburn (-2.5)
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The Game: Birmingham Bowl — Wednesday, December 30
I would have rather taken this at three, where it opened, but I doubt the spread comes into play.
Memphis should win straight up.
Even without head coach Justin Fuente, who left to accept the same job at Virginia Tech, Memphis is the better team. It ranks 22 spots higher on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, and it beat the same Ole Miss team that defeated Auburn in late October.
Plus, it's not like Auburn kept its staff intact. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp became the head coach at South Carolina, and his loss negates what Memphis lost in Fuente. That doesn't mean neither will make an impact; it's just hard to consider one but not the other.
Memphis lost three straight games in November but righted the ship with a 63-0 win over SMU. All three of the teams it lost to—Navy, Houston and Temple—are better than Auburn, too. If not for each team's conference, this line would be much different.
The Pick: Memphis (+2.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Wisconsin vs. USC (-3)
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The Game: Holiday Bowl — Wednesday, December 30
Wisconsin has lost three games this season: two against top-five opponents and one against a top-15 opponent.
Alabama blew its doors off in the season opener, but since then it has only lost to Iowa and Northwestern by 10 combined points.
Its offense has been a mess, but its defense ranks No. 7 on Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings. In more ways than one, the Badgers resemble Pac-12 team Washington, which held USC to 12 points in a road upset in October. It only needed 17 points to win.
Wisconsin might need more, but not by much. Its defense will be the best unit on the field, and I love how it performed last bowl season (albeit with a different coach), when it upset Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Even its shaky offense should make plays against USC's soft defense.
The Pick: Wisconsin (+3)
Clemson vs. Oklahoma (-3.5)
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The Game: Capital One Orange Bowl — Thursday, January 31
Remind me why Oklahoma is favored?
Is it because Clemson won a close game instead of a blowout against North Carolina? Because the Sooners did the same against TCU two weeks earlier, inching past the Horned Frogs on a stopped two-point conversion when both teams were down a starting quarterback.
Is it because Clemson plays in the ACC instead of the Big 12? Because that didn't stop it from pasting Oklahoma in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl, 40-6.
Is it because Clemson can't guard Baker Mayfield? Because the same might be said of Oklahoma and Deshaun Watson.
The truth is these teams are mostly even. Both deserved to make the playoff, but if anything, Clemson is better. This line feels like a bit of recency bias, since Oklahoma looked better its last time out, against Oklahoma State, than Clemson did in the ACC Championship Game. But one game does not a season make.
Give me the better team…plus the hook.
The Pick: Clemson (+3.5)
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (-6.5)
6 of 8
The Game: BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl — Friday, January 1
For the first time this season—and that includes the Michigan State game—Ohio State will play a team that matches its talent.
In fact, Notre Dame might exceed it. The Irish lack the Buckeyes' depth, but linebacker Jaylon Smith, wide receiver Will Fuller, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and defensive tackle Sheldon Day would all top Ohio State's depth chart at their respective positions.
Notre Dame has lost two games this season: each by two points, and each against power-conference champions (No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford). Both came on the road, and the Irish had a chance to win both at the final whistle. Why should they lose by a touchdown on a neutral field against No. 7 Ohio State?
This line is just really inflated.
The Pick: Notre Dame (+6.5)
Iowa vs. Stanford (-6.5)
7 of 8
The Game: Rose Bowl — Friday, January 1
This line opened at seven but has moved to 6.5.
I'll take it.
Stanford can score on anyone and has just as much to prove as Iowa. The Hawkeyes are perennial underdogs, but the Cardinal are the lone major-conference champion to miss the playoff. Consider how that angle worked for TCU in last year's Sugar Bowl, when it led Ole Miss 42-0 after the first 33 minutes.
Does that mean Stanford will blow the Hawkeyes' doors off? No. But it should win by more than Michigan State did. Sparty had a banged-up Connor Cook and couldn't stretch the field. Stanford has a peaking Kevin Hogan and Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey.
A touchdown seems just too short.
The Pick: Stanford (-6.5)
Kansas State vs. Arkansas (-11)
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The Game: AutoZone Liberty Bowl — Saturday, January 2
Square play? Maybe. But Arkansas should win by a landslide.
The Razorbacks have the No. 2 offense in the country, per Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, and scored 50-plus points in four of their final six games. Kansas State already played the No. 1 and No. 3 S&P+ offenses, allowing 59 points to No. 1 Texas Tech and 55 to No. 3 Oklahoma. It lost those games by an average of 35 points.
Arkansas also peaked at the end of last season and then carried that into its bowl game. It beat Big 12 foe Texas by 24 points in the Texas Bowl, prompting head coach Bret Bielema, six months later, to call the win "borderline erotic."
In his final career game, senior quarterback Brandon Allen should have his way with Kansas State's defense. Arkansas can be scored on, but Kansas State's offense leaves a lot to be desired.
According to SB Nation's Bill Connelly, this is the most lopsided matchup on the bowl schedule.
Arkansas by 20…at least.
The Pick: Arkansas (-11)
Note: All spread info via Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
