Patriots vs. Texans: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

Only four cornerbacks in the NFL have been thrown at more than New England's Malcolm Butler this season. It doesn't seem to be poor play causing the excessive number of throws against him, but rather the great play from his team-mate at the other corner position for the Patriots.

Out of 116 eligible NFL cornerbacks who have played at least 25 percent of their team's snaps this season, Logan Ryan ranks eighth in opposing QB rating and 13th in coverage rating from Pro Football Focus.

Part of what has made Bill Belichick a successful defensive strategist is his ability to scheme up ways to take away the opponents' No. 1 option. Whether that is a running back, wide receiver or tight end, most of the time he's able to take that player away and force his opponent to beat him with someone else.

The Patriots will obviously try to do that with DeAndre Hopkins, so Bill O'Brien and offensive coordinator George Godsey have to be ready with a plan to counter that strategy.

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Both New Orleans and Buffalo were able to take Hopkins away with varying degrees of success by using safety help to double team the talented receiver. Before the last two weeks, Hopkins had received at least 10 targets in every game, but he was held to just eight against the Saints and Bills.

Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington are competent receivers, but we've seen their issues with drops show up at inopportune times, so the offensive coaches have to scheme up a better way to get Hopkins open more frequently.

The most obvious thing to try would be moving him around to different receiver positions, including the slot, to keep the defense guessing as to where he'll line up from play to play and maybe get him matched up against a lesser corner occasionally.

They should also try more stack or bunch-receiver formations to get Hopkins a free release off the line and give him a better chance to beat the solid, man-cover corners of the Patriots.

Houston hasn't used many stacked receiver sets this year, but we saw how well they can work last week when Sammy Watkins beat Kevin Johnson for an early touchdown, so why not use those same ideas to help open up things for your top target?

Bottom line: If Belichick's main goal on defense is to take away Hopkins, then the Texans' main offensive goal needs to be focused on ways to get him open.

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Though it might not be a bad idea to call it once or twice, it's also time to retire most of their "Wildcat" plays for this season. Those formations and plays only work in today's NFL if it's something that catches an opponent by surprise or is something they haven't seen on tape and haven't prepared for in practice.

By now, every remaining Texans opponent has watched those plays on tape and practiced on how to stop them, so it won't be nearly as effective as it was against the New York Jets.

That doesn't mean they can't use it at all, but relying on it as heavily as they did against New York would be a mistake, especially considering how well they've run the ball with traditional plays over the last two weeks.

The Texans will also need to have their tight ends or running backs chip or bump Chandler Jones on their way out into a route whenever possible. Duane Brown is obviously a capable blocker, but Jones is a lot for any offensive tackle to handle one-on-one.

Defensive Game Plan

Assuming that both Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman don't play, the Texans should focus on taking away first-down runs to LeGarrette Blount.

The Texans have struggled to stop the run at times this season, but those issues have mostly been against teams with speedy backs who could attack the edge on sweeps or against quarterbacks who were running threats that had to be accounted for and watched.

They've at-times lacked focus and discipline with playing their assignment or being in the right position on running plays that involved the quarterback or a pulling lineman, but against more traditional attacks they have fared pretty well.

Blount is a solid back and will break tackles if hit up high, but he gets the job done with power and doesn't have the speed to get to the edge, so the Texans should perform much better against the Patriots' running game.

The things Kansas City and Buffalo did to eat the Texans up on the ground with the wide runs shouldn't be a problem against an offense featuring Blount.

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Not only do they need to win first down because Blount would be tough to stop on 3rd-and-short, but with Gronkowski and/or Edelman probably out of the lineup, who else will win for Tom Brady on 3rd-and-long?

Of the 119 eligible wide receivers who have played at least 25 percent of their team's snaps this season, Brandon LaFell of the Patriots ranks 111th in percentage of passes caught on targets toward him.

For the season, Brady is completing just 49 percent of his passes targeted toward LaFell, who ranks 117th of 119 eligible receivers in the grade from Pro Football Focus on passing plays.

Danny Amendola can win one-on-one situations but is a bigger threat on underneath routes and in short-yardage situations. He's a talented receiver with shifty moves in space, but he isn't as much of a concern downfield with his size.

On 3rd-and-short, the entire playbook is open for the Patriots. Power runs to Blount are an option as well as hard-to-stop short passes to Amendola or James White out of the backfield. If the Texans can keep them in 3rd-and-six or longer, they have a shot.

So if you can win first down against Blount and put the Patriots in 3rd-and-long situations without their two best receiving options, the Texans' pass-rush and defensive backs have a chance to get stops and lead the way for a big, upset win. 

Key Matchup and Players: Chandler Jones vs. Duane Brown

New England defensive end Chandler Jones ranks third in the NFL in sacks with 10.5 and is fifth among 4-3 defensive ends in QB hurries with 37 this year.

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Unlike J.J. Watt, Jones nearly always lines up on the right side—the normal spot against the blind side of right-handed quarterbacks—with 375 of his 406 snaps as a pass-rusher coming on that side of the defensive line.

Jones has been very productive this season with 50 total pressures from that position on the field, which ranks second among 4-3 ends rushing from the right side.

Texans three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown is the team's highest-graded pass-blocker from Pro Football Focus this year, so this will be a great matchup to watch. 

Prediction

At full strength, with Gronkowski, Edelman and Dion Lewis available for the Patriots, the pick here would probably be New England by 10 or more.

Of course that's not the case, so the pick needs to be altered some, but by how much?

The Texans' defense had been rolling with dominant play for four straight weeks before last week's setback in Buffalo, but that might have been a necessary kick to get them going again.

No loss is ever a good thing, but maintaining the level of play they had against New Orleans, Tennessee and Cincinnati every week is impossible, so at least that down performance came before this game against the Patriots.

This might be a reach, but maybe last week's loss will serve as a reminder to the level of focus, intensity and execution they must have to keep dominating on defense.

If they can reach that level again, this version of the Patriots offense is vulnerable. New England's defense is pretty solid as well, so their own defense will have to have a great game to keep the score low enough for Brian Hoyer and the offense to win the game.

Prediction: Texans 23, Patriots 20