Patriots vs. Texans: Full Houston Week 14 Preview

The Houston Texans last played the New England Patriots in 2013 during Houston's miserable 2-14 season but managed to play a very competitive game. New England would later reach the AFC title game that season but only beat the Texans in Houston by three points, 34-31.

The Patriots were nearly a touchdown favorite, but as previously mentioned only won by three points on the road, despite having a full complement of offensive weapons like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman available for quarterback Tom Brady.

Gronkowski and Edelman combined for 15 receptions, 228 yards and one touchdown in that winning effort from 2013, but to the Texans' favor, neither will likely play this week in the Patriots' return to Houston.

New England started off the year with a perfect 10-0 record but has lost back-to-back games after the injuries to Gronkowski and Edelman, including an embarrassing home loss to the previously 4-7 Philadelphia Eagles.

Even putting aside the natural home-team bias, if the Eagles were capable of taking advantage of an injured Patriots team on the road, then why can't Houston pull off an upset win at home in the same situation?

Not only would a win over New England help the Texans keep pace with Indianapolis (who plays Jacksonville this week) before their showdown in Week 15, but defeating the Patriots would also improve their chances of winning the common-games and conference-record tiebreakers for a wild-card spot.

The common-games tiebreaker won't come into play for the AFC South race if the Texans defeat New England, but it could play a major role in breaking a wild-card tie between three or more teams, or if Houston and Pittsburgh are tied at the end of the season. 

Obviously unlikely, but it never hurts to improve your odds of winning potential tiebreaker scenarios.

Week 13 Results and Recap

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

The Buffalo Bills aren't a great team, but when you make mistakes, commit lots of penalties and let nearly every opportunity for a big play slip by like the Houston Texans did last week, you can lose to any team in the NFL.

On the defensive side this game was lost up front by allowing the Bills to consistently get the edge in the running game on their way to 187 rushing yards, the second most allowed by the Texans this season.

Buffalo attacked outside linebacker John Simon play after play until the Texans removed him from the game, but he wasn't their only problem in run defense. J.J. Watt made some spectacular plays in the second half, but he got pinned inside and pushed out of the play on outside runs frequently during the first half.

Despite those problems, the Texans still had a chance to win, but two big mistakes on defense cost them the game.

The first example came with 3:50 remaining in the fourth quarter with the Bills at midfield and faced with 3rd-and-6. Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw a lazy pass out short that hit Texans safety Andre Hal in both hands, but Hal dropped the interception.

Had Hal caught the errant pass from Taylor, he would have had an easy pick-six with no one in his way to the end zone. Instead, Buffalo punted and pinned the Texans deep inside their own territory at the 6-yard line.

Instead of the Texans taking their first lead of the game with little time remaining, the Bills were able to flip the field and later use that to their advantage.

The other game-breaking Texans mistake came just before the two-minute warning when busted coverage allowed Buffalo tight end Charles Clay to score the game-winning touchdown easily on a 40-yard reception.

Houston was in Cover 4 coverage, which makes the bust even more inexcusable. The basic idea of Cover 4 is to divide the field in quarters with four defenders in deep coverage.

Most of the time that means two corners at the numbers and two safeties between the hash marks dropping deep, but because the Texans were also playing against the run with only three defensive backs on the field, the other player responsible for dropping deep would likely be an inside linebacker.

If everyone plays his assignment properly instead of jumping on underneath routes, deep down the middle of the field from a tight end/slot position should be a strength of Cover 4 and should never be wide open.

Those types of mistakes are obviously hard to overcome.

On offense, Houston rushed for over 100 yards as a team for the third week in a row, after only topping the century mark once over its first nine games of the season.

Unfortunately, the solid ground game was wasted by poor accuracy from Brian Hoyer, a slow first half by DeAndre Hopkins and too many dropped passes from the rest of the receiving group.

As we've seen from him in the past, Hoyer still has a problem with holding on to the ball for too long, ignoring easy passes underneath and frequently delivering the ball both low and behind the intended target.

His inaccuracy cost them at least 30 yards on their possession right after the go-ahead score from Charles, as two passes to Hopkins and Cecil Shorts could have put them across midfield with their run after the catch but ended as incompletions instead.

With all three timeouts available, it was also a mistake to pass four straight times on that possession considering the success they'd had on the ground earlier in the game. You can't put the game on Hoyer's shoulders and expect positive results.

On either second or third down they should have run the ball, looked to pick up four or five yards against a defense that was playing the pass and at least put Hoyer in a more manageable situation than the eventual 4th-and-10 he faced.

A few other decisions by Bill O'Brien were troubling, like his failure to use a timeout near the end of the first half and some of his decision-making on when to go for two points, which you can read about in more detail from my postgame recap article.

Mistakes were made all around by nearly every member of the team; it's hard to win many games like that.

News and Notes

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Brian Hoyer Having a Career Season, According to the Stats

As you probably figured out from the last page and previous articles, I'm not a huge fan of Hoyer, but from a strictly statistical view he's having a solid season. 

"

#Texans QB Brian Hoyer has 18 touchdown passes this season. Per @espnstatsinfo he had 18 combined from 2012-2014.

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 7, 2015"

Hoyer is currently enjoying his best season in touchdowns, interception percentage, completion percentage, yards per game and quarterback rating in seasons during which he made at least one start.

The Student vs. The Master

Much of the talk leading up to the game this week has been about the relationship between Bill O'Brien and Patriots' coach Bill Belichick.

O'Brien had been a college assistant or coordinator for several years, including stops at Georgia Tech, Maryland and Duke, but he took a pay cut to join the Patriots in 2007. From Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, Bill's wife, Colleen, wasn't all that happy about his decision to take a pay cut.

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We had Jack and then Michael had just been born, for that college coaching deal I was making a decent salary and didn’t quite make that same salary in New England. She didn’t quite have the divorce papers written up just then, but that came later for other reasons. My suitcase was not on the porch. I don’t think she was real thrilled about the old salary.

"

O'Brien said he learned a lot from Belichick during his time in New England. 

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Bill O'Brien said he learned organizational skills, talent evaluation, defensive knowledge, approach to defense from Bill Belichick

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 9, 2015"

For his part, Belichick has nothing but praise for his former offensive coordinator. 

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Bill Belichick on Bill O'Brien: 'He's a great coach, one of the best I've had.'

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 9, 2015"

The Belichick coaching tree has had mixed results with less-than-successful head coaching stints by Romeo Crennel, Josh McDaniels and Charlie Weis, but hopefully Belichick's praise of Coach O'Brien is a sign that better times are on their way in Houston.

Latest Injury News

George Bridges/Associated Press

For the second week in a row, the Texans will enter their game in pretty good shape from a team-health point of view. Besides the players who were already on IR, only the status of offensive guard Brandon Brooks remains a question going into this game against New England.

Brooks missed just his second game of the season last week against Buffalo with what Coach O'Brien called a "24-hour bug." We later found out that Brooks stayed behind in Buffalo to receive more medical attention after the team left last Sunday.

According to Wilson, Brooks was released from a Buffalo emergency room on Monday and then flew back to Houston. 

Brooks returned to practice on Wednesday and will most likely play against the Patriots this week. 

"

Brandon Brooks said 'constant vomiting was annoying and scary,' says tests determined his ulcer had healed, says he feels good now will play

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 9, 2015"

The Texans still managed to rush for 126 yards against Buffalo, but they definitely need Brooks back on the field. Brooks has the highest grade of any Texans offensive lineman and the second-best overall grade from Pro Football Focus this season. 

Sources: Pro Football Reference

"

.@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (12/9): pic.twitter.com/eRN2gV7CPP

— Texans PR (@TexansPR) December 9, 2015"

Key Matchups

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Duane Brown vs. Chandler Jones

Patriots defensive end Chandler Jones currently ranks third in the league in sacks with 10.5 and is fifth among 4-3 defensive ends in quarterback hurries with 37 this season.

Unlike J.J. Watt, Jones almost exclusively lines up on the right side—the traditional spot against the blindside of right-handed quarterbacks—with 375 of his 406 snaps as a pass-rusher coming on the right side of the defensive line.

Jones has been quite productive with 50 total pressures from that spot, which ranks second among 4-3 defensive ends rushing from the right side.

Texans All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown is the team's highest graded pass-blocker from Pro Football Focus this season, so this should be a great matchup to watch this week.

Win On First Down Against LeGarrette Blount

Losing Dion Lewis to a season-ending injury hurt the Patriots offense in several ways, but most noticeably in the passing game and his speed in getting the edge on running plays.

LeGarrette Blount is a quality back but a much different runner. Blount was the power-back complement to the speed of Lewis, so now that he'll be New England's primary runner, expect its rushing attack to feature more runs between the tackles than to the outside.

Last week against Philadelphia, Blount gained minus-three yards on three total rushing attempts at the left end and left tackle while gaining 45 yards on eight attempts between the guards.

That's a small sample size, but it points out the obvious: Power backs are more efficient running between the guards than outside the tackles.

The Texans love to use sub-packages with an extra defensive back on the field, which would make sense against the quicker Lewis. But against the power of Blount that strategy might need a little tweaking.

New England likely won't call many 3rd-and-long draw plays to Blount, so the Texans will need to win on first down when he's more likely to get the ball. Not to state the obvious, but doing so would also put them in a favorable spot against a quarterback without his top two receiving options.

Texans X-Factor of the Week

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Texans X-Factor of the Week: Jadeveon Clowney

Second-year player Jadeveon Clowney got his second sack of the season last week and has received an overall positive grade from Pro Football Focus for every game he's played this year, with the exception of one, but the Texans need more from the 2014 No. 1 overall pick this week against Brady.

Clowney's one negative grade came from the game against Tennessee when he injured his back and only played 12 snaps, so he's been effective this year, but he hasn't made the big impact yet that fans have anxiously been waiting to see from the talented pass-rusher.

As you would expect, Brady's performance has dropped off since Edelman and Gronkowski went down to injury.

Weeks 1-10 Before Injuries to Edelman and Gronkowski

• 67.8 completion percentage
• 8.2 yards per attempt
• 111.1 quarterback rating
• 27 drops (2.7 per game)
• 24 touchdowns to three interceptions (2.4/0.3 per game)
• Hit as he threw or sacked 25 times (2.5 times per game) 

Weeks 11-13 After Injuries to Edelman and Gronkowski

• 52.6 completion percentage
• 6.3 yards per attempt
• 80.2 quarterback rating
• 14 drops (4.66 per game)
• Seven touchdowns to three interceptions (2.3/1.0 per game)
• Hit as he threw or sacked 14 total times (4.66 per game)

Every important stat has turned dramatically worse for Brady after those key injuries, so the Texans must get a better rush out of Clowney to make sure Brady doesn't get comfortable in the pocket or find a rhythm to break out of his current funk.

Clowney is graded as the Texans' second-best pass-rusher and run defender behind Watt, so his performance level can make a big difference.

We know that Watt will find a way to make an impact. Clowney must do the same.

Prediction

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Despite how the Patriots offense has trended statistically after the injuries to Gronkowski and Edelman, it's still hard to come on here and predict a Texans win over New England with much confidence.

Maybe the beatings given by New England in the 2012 season when the Texans allowed 83 combined points over two miserable games are still clouding my judgement, but it's hard to shake the feeling that it's just the better team.

At full strength with Dion Lewis, Gronkowski and Edelman available, not to mention a healthier version of Danny Amendola or Dont'a Hightower, the Patriots would defeat the Texans by 10 points or more, even on the road.

However, that's not the case, so the question becomes, how much will those injuries impact the result of this game? The loss at Denver was one thing, but that home defeat to Philadelphia was eye-opening.

Though it would have been better for the Texans to face the Patriots last week before the Eagles likely woke them up and ticked them off.

The decision on this pick has changed several times, but I'll go with the improved defense over the injured offense.

Prediction: Texans 23, Patriots 20

Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac