AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for LSU vs. Texas Tech
Deep in the heart of Houston, two border opponents will take the field seeking postseason success as No. 20 LSU clashes with Big 12 representative Texas Tech at NRG Stadium. The Tigers enter the matchup off an emotional victory over rival and former Big 12 member Texas A&M, while the Red Raiders hope to earn its third win in a row after downing Kansas State and Texas.
After over a week of turmoil regarding the job status of longtime coach Les Miles, LSU broke out of its three-game losing funk in a dominating win over A&M. The Tigers have yet to look like their midseason form—when they ranked second in the CFP rankings—but have an opportunity to enter the offseason on a solid note with the bowl win.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech counts itself lucky to reach the postseason after missing one last year, securing the in-state bid with two late victories. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury and company have seen flashes of greatness during the year, as the Red Raiders suffered close losses to TCU and Oklahoma State, but a win over SEC West powerhouse LSU would stand as a coup for this rising program.
So the question stands: How far have the Tigers fallen, and can they stop the bleeding on what looked like a championship-bound season? And how much better are the Red Raiders, who are bowl-bound, but still struggle in big-time games?
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7What might stand out most is simply this: How much of a field day is stud running back Leonard Fournette going to have with this Red Raiders defense? The big back has—combined with freshman Derrius Guice—averaged 247 yards per game, but Texas Tech has given up more.
Good luck containing Fournette when you have trouble containing Big 12 backfields.
Another interesting fact from this graphic comes in the form of Tech's average offensive production versus the Tigers' defensive stinginess. LSU has a tendency to not give up many yards per game, while the Raiders are an offensive that thrives the more it produces. Whoever wins that battle may determine the fate of the matchup.
Keys to Victory for LSU
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1) Simple: Stick with your game plan. LSU likes the run the ball, mainly because it has one of the best backs this sport has ever seen. So give the ball to Fournette, and let him do his thing. The sophomore has done immense damage to almost every SEC defense the Tigers have lined up against, so just envision how mouthwatering this matchup is for the bruising running back.
2) Rushing the passer and covering complex downfield route-running is basic football, but LSU must be on-point in both these facets against the Red Raiders. Kliff Kingsbury's offense can be decisive when mistakes are made, and score fast when the opportunity presents itself.
3) Special teams has been the leak in the rowboat this whole season, but it looked much improved against A&M. While Texas Tech doesn't stand out as a squad with a ton of deadly special teams weapons, LSU needs to ensure it doesn't make any critical errors to hand momentum over to the Raiders.
Keys to Victory for Texas Tech
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1) Air the ball out, and do it the whole game. Texas Tech has done it all season, and it's worked against the likes of everyone, from Arkansas to TCU. Outscoring LSU isn't out of the question, and in all likelihood, it's the best way to take down the Tigers.
2) Quarterback Brandon Harris has been abysmal as of late, and it wouldn't be out of the question to throw most of your defensive chips into stopping Fournette. Shutting down Fournette means you shut down LSU, and if rolling the dice with Harris means the Tiger ground game goes nowhere, the Raiders should take their chances.
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Players to Watch for LSU
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1) RB Leonard Fournette - Not exactly a stretch here to say Fournette is the heart of this LSU team. The sophomore running back is a force by himself, and is no doubt the central figure in coordinator Cam Cameron's offensive scheme. If Fournette rolls, the Tigers do as well, so expect big things from the sophomore.
2) LB Deion Jones - The team leader in both tackles and tackles for loss, racking up 92 and 11.5 respectively this season, Jones has served as the figurative center of the Tiger defensive front. The senior linebacker has also contributed in the turnover department, intercepting opposing quarterbacks twice on the year.
3) QB Brandon Harris - The passing game lives and dies with quarterback Brandon Harris, who has shown flashes of both greatness and mediocrity throughout the season. The perfect complement to Fournette when on, Harris and his receiving corps have the ability to be dangerous, but they just aren't always on that level.
Players to Watch for Texas Tech
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1) QB Patrick Mahomes - Even though Mahomes hasn't been phenomenal this season, the young quarterback has served as a solid conduit for head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offensive schemes. Racking up an impressive 4283 passing yards for 32 touchdowns with just 14 interceptions, the sophomore completed 65 percent of his passes on the year, helping Tech to its seven wins.
2) RB DeAndre Washington - While Texas Tech is certainly not a "running" squad, back DeAndre Washington has been solid throughout the season for the Raiders. The 1455 rushing yards on 223 carries for 14 touchdowns has given Tech an extra dimension when necessary, even if it is relatively short lived. Look for Washington to play an active role, if only to distract LSU from the passing attack Mahomes will be throwing at the Tigers.
3) WR Jakeem Grant - If Washington has been solid as a running back, Jakeem Grant has been that and more at wide receiver this year. Grant's 80 receptions for 1143 yards and seven scores acts as proof of his lethality, especially when opposing defenses are entranced by the multitude of formations and routes Texas Tech runs on a consistent basis.
What They're Saying
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LSU head coach Les Miles anticipates the matchup with Texas Tech to gives the Tigers a good look for Texas recruits and close venue for fans to travel, per James Moran of Tiger Rag:
""It’s a great venue for our players and our fans. Our recruiting efforts there are certainly significant and we recruit our student population from that area. A major city and a great place for us. We’ve enjoyed it.”
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Meanwhile, many Texas Tech fans and media continue to be annoyed by the lack of a Texas A&M appearance opposite them in the Houston-based bowl, via TexasFootball.com.
"Which means we won't get Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl. https://t.co/stmJNg4o8b
— TexasFootball.com (@dctf) December 6, 2015"
Prediction
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LSU 31, Texas Tech 14
As potent as the Texas Tech offense has been this past season, and as tempting as going against the chalk is, taking LSU over the Red Raiders is almost a no-brainer. The Fournette factor alone is enough to believe in the Tigers victory, as it's likely the sophomore back could take on the Tech defense by himself and still gain ground.
The LSU defense has just too much speed to be undone by the Tech offensive scheme, and considering the Tigers were just successful against a similar squad in Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend, it's not a far stretch to assume the same will happen to the Red Raiders in the Texas Bowl.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
