Updated 2015-16 MVP Odds: Steph Curry vs. the Field, Who Ya Got?
The NBA MVP race is over—or, rather, it would be if the 2015-16 campaign closed today.
Stephen Curry, who's still sporting the belt from last season, could give the league its first unanimous winner. It's not easy to be the first anything in a five-plus-decade-old association, but it's possible when the same person wears the labels most often affixed to the award—best player overall and best player on the best team.
But the curtain isn't close to dropping yet. This marathon journey still has four-plus months to go; who knows what type of madness lies ahead. As a wise man once said, anything is possible.
The injury bug might strike. Streaks and slumps can push players up and down the MVP ladder. Heck, Curry's Golden State Warriors might actually lose a game at some point.
So much of this script still needs to be written. But there's enough data on hand already to weigh Curry's odds of a repeat MVP award and those of his top competitors.
Curry's Credentials
In the video above, Curry erupted for 28 points (including 24 straight) during the third quarter of a 40-point performance. It was his fifth 20-point period already this season.
No one else has more than one, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The outing was also his sixth performance with 40-plus points. The Warriors have only played 20 games. As Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding noted, it's been a long time since an NBA player had this many monster performances this early into the season:
Curry's statistical marks are several levels above video-game numbers. Some of these are simply unprecedented.
Only five players have ever averaged at least 30 points and had a true shooting percentage of 60-plus. Four are Hall of Famers (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Adrian Dantley), and the fifth will be when he walks away (Kevin Durant). Dantley is the only one to clear 65 percent, topping out at 66.1 in 1982-83.
Curry, who's pouring in 32 points a night, has a 70.0 true shooting percentage, which would be the third-highest ever recorded (minimum 20 games played, 20 minutes per). And the two players ahead of that mark are centers (Tyson Chandler, Hall of Famer Artis Gilmore).
Curry's 35.0 player efficiency rating would shatter Wilt Chamberlain's record of 31.8. Curry is also poised to break his own record of 3.6 made three-pointers a night by knocking in an astounding 5.1 triples per outing.
And he's doing so while burying 45.9 percent of his long-range looks—a conversion rate players have cleared only three times with 400-plus attempts (Curry's on pace for 910).
"He's transforming the way we see point guards and three-point shooters in the NBA," wrote FiveThirtyEight's Kirk Goldsberry. "That may seem like hyperbole, but it's not; between Curry's volume, his efficiency and his quickness, it's easy to argue that he is the best three-point shooter the NBA has ever seen."
Curry is also tied for 15th in restricted-area field goals. And the 6'3", 190-pound point guard is shooting a higher percentage from that zone (68.8) than Durant (68.3), LeBron James (68.2), Blake Griffin (68.7), Russell Westbrook (57.7) and Anthony Davis (68.1).
Oh, by the way, Curry has dunked once this season; the aforementioned quintet has 121 slams.
"I would say Steph is turning into a historical category of his own, in a way," two-time MVP and current Warriors consultant Steve Nash said, via San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami. "... His ability to make shots and still handle the playmaking duties is historic. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a player more skilled than him in the history of the game."
Curry's MVP argument can be made without ever shifting away from individual numbers. This hasn't even mentioned that he's on pace to set personal bests in free-throw percentage (94.3), rebounds (5.1), steals (2.4), defensive rating (99) and win shares per 48 minutes (.384). Or that he's leading the NBA in scoring while ranking 28th in minutes (34.3).
But here's the kicker—widening the lens to include team impact only strengthens Curry's case.
The defending-champion Dubs are the league's best squad by a long shot, but they're a dramatically different outfit with and without Curry.
No one means more to his club than Curry. He's tops in both raw plus-minus (plus-15.7) and ESPN.com's real plus-minus (10.83). And remember, he's suiting up for a historically dominant team.
Clearly, this is his award to lose, which is absurd in itself given the quantity (and quality) of other candidates.
The Competition
Kevin Durant
Durant tried to warn everyone. Despite missing all but 27 games last season to a foot problem that necessitated three surgeries, he boldly declared in September, "Yes, I'm still the best player in the world," via Ruptly TV.
The former MVP is not just picking up where he left off; he's building from it. He's converting field goals (51.4) and three-point bombs (45.7) at career-high rates while still tallying 28.2 points on a nightly basis. He's also shattering his previous best in blocks (1.6, up from 1.3) and rounding out his stat line with 7.5 boards and 3.5 assists.
Taken together, that adds up to a 30.5 PER—higher than the 29.8 he posted during his MVP-winning 2013-14 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are still finding their way, but they play like world-beaters when Durant is on the floor (plus-12.2 points per 100 possessions).
So much for easing back into the action. Like Durant, Paul George endured an injury-ravaged 2014-15 season. George made only six appearances in April after suffering a gruesome leg fracture during a Team USA scrimmage in August 2014. But his 17-point, 12-rebound, eight-assist debut sent a message—he's making up for lost time.
"He's been fantastic," Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel said, via NBA.com's Sekou Smith. "... He's one of the best two-way players in the NBA. He's showing that he's back."
George isn't just back; he's better than ever. If the season stopped today, he'd have new career highs in points (26.5), rebounds (8.2), assists (4.3), PER (25.0) and true shooting percentage (58.7). He also routinely handles Indiana's toughest defensive assignment, and he's holding his matchups 6.1 percentage points below their field-goal average.
LeBron James
Kyrie Irving hasn't made his 2015-16 debut and Kevin Love, while more productive than last season, has still disappeared at times. And yet, the Cleveland Cavaliers are sitting alone atop the Eastern Conference standings, thanks in large part to LeBron.
The four-time MVP remains one of the most productive players in the business. He's en route to his ninth season with at least 25 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Only two other players have more than two: Oscar Robertson (six) and Larry Bird (four). The Cavs also fare a staggering 26.9 points better per 100 possessions when James is on the floor against when he isn't.
"I'm going to hold everyone accountable including myself," James said, via USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "I expect nothing less than greatness out of all of us, and if we're not able to do that, then I feel like I've failed."
Kawhi Leonard
San Antonio Spurs swingman Kawhi Leonard's trophy case is already crowded. The 24-year-old, who's never been an NBA All-Star, has a championship, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award all under his belt. All indications are he's coming for the highest individual honor this time around.
"Defensively, he's always been really special," Atlanta Hawks head coach and former Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer said, via Nick Moyle of the San Antonio Express-News. "To see how he has taken a lot of responsibility offensively, making tough shots and putting the ball in his hands and creating, he's just a physical force at the small forward position."
Leonard's points (21.9), rebounds (7.5), assists (2.6), three-point percentage (50.0) and PER (27.4) are all personal bests. His turnover percentage (6.8) and defensive rating (91) are career lows. He leads all perimeter players with a 3.36 defensive real plus-minus, and he's keeping opponents 8.2 points below their normal field-goal percentage—the best mark among anyone facing nine-plus shots.
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook is going to get his. It doesn't matter who's around him or what the statistical category is, the Oklahoma City Thunder's fiery floor general is probably going to fill it.
He's tied for second with 12 double-doubles and one of only three players with multiple triple-doubles. His per-game marks are incredible: 27.5 points, 9.6 assists, 7.3 rebounds. His single-game outbursts are even more outrageous: 40 points on 19 shots against the Memphis Grizzlies; 13 assists and five steals against the Brooklyn Nets; 17 rebounds against the Philadelphia 76ers.
He aces every test with otherworldly athleticism, and the analytical crowd can't overlook his second-place standing in both PER (31.4) and real plus-minus (9.35).
"He fills up the stat sheet in a way that not many players can," wrote Basketball Insiders' Eric Saar. "He can score with the best of them, be an elite playmaker by dishing out assists and rebounds better than most guards. This is to say nothing of his defensive prowess."
The Odds
Unpredictability is the drama driving the last three quarters of the 2015-16 campaign. Short of a fortune-revealing crystal ball, there's no way to perfectly plot the upcoming path.
But our eyeballs and box scores reveal who's playing the best at the moment. By blending that information with past performances and what we know about their current situation (health, opportunity, team success, etc.), we can make educated assessments about sustainability and thus handicap the MVP race.
Or the race for No. 2, rather.
The table below shows our odds and Odds Shark's latest information, both of which put the reigning MVP several zip codes away from his closest competitors.
| Stephen Curry | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| LeBron James | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| Russell Westbrook | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| Kevin Durant | 10-1 | 9-1 |
| Paul George | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 20-1 | 12-1 |
This is based on what we've seen so far from teams and individuals. Both must impress for a successful MVP campaign, which is why James Harden (10-1 on Odds Shark), Griffin (14-1) and Davis (16-1) didn't make our cut.
The threats to deny a repeat honor to Curry are both real and numerous.
But they're not enough to stop it.
It should be bold to tab an MVP in early December. The only adventurous calls at the moment are the ones that don't have Curry capturing the crown.
That tells you everything you need to know about this debate. The field has quantity, but no one in it can match Curry's MVP quality.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Dec. 3.
