SEC Championship Game 2015: Odds and Final Breakdown of Alabama vs. Florida
It's Championship Saturday in the world of college football. The nation's best programs from conferences all over the map are going toe-to-toe in what should be a manic day of action. A number of games are worthy of must-see TV consideration.
If elite defense and power running are your thing, the 2015 SEC title game between No. 2 Alabama and No. 18 Florida should be viewing priority No. 1. Though there is a large gap between the two teams in the polls, Alabama coach Nick Saban isn't taking the opposition lightly.
"We haven't beaten a team that's won 10 games all year," he said, via Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel. "So we feel this is the best team we've played all year."
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A win guarantees Alabama (11-1) a spot in the College Football Playoff. A loss, and Florida (10-2) gets sweet, sweet spoiler satisfaction to go along with the obvious joy of winning the Southeastern Conference championship.
As of 7 a.m. ET on Saturday, Alabama is favored by 17.5 points over Florida, per Odds Shark. With the over-under set at a measly 40 points, it's clear the oddsmakers doubt the Gators' ability to put up points against an overwhelming Crimson Tide defense.
Here's the essential viewing info and breakdown for the championship matchup.
2015 SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida Viewing Info
When: Saturday, December 5 at 4 p.m. ET
Where: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
TV: CBS
Live Stream: CBS Sports
Championship Breakdown
Make no mistake, Heisman Trophy candidate Derrick Henry will be the most important player on the field Saturday, bar none. Sure, it would be nice if Florida got a big game from quarterback Treon Harris—and that would certainly shake up the dynamic of this contest—but Henry is the most talented offensive player in this contest and the one most likely to define it.
LSU's Leonard Fournette was the running back du jour in the first half of the season, only for his star to lose its luster as Henry went supernova starting in October.
Henry has rushed for 1,797 yards at a clip of 6.1 yards per carry in 2015. He's scored 22 touchdowns on the year, at least one in every game. In four of his past six outings, he's topped the 200-yard mark. He carried the ball a staggering 46 times in Alabama's 29-13 win over Auburn in this year's Iron Bowl.
Henry also has a record to break on Saturday, per the SEC Network:
No team has contained—let alone shut down—Henry this season, though if there was a group to pull off the feat, it might be the Gators. AL.com's Charles Hollis points out how a rather large contingent of NFL-caliber talent has shaped the Gators into one of the nation's most fearsome defenses:
"These Gators will play in the NFL one day: Tackle Jonathan Bullard, cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor, safeties Quincy Wilson and Keanu Neal and linebacker Antonio Morrison.
How good is the 6'3", 283-pound Bullard? Think Jarran Reed, Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson.
Bullard is the leader of a defense that is No. 5 nationally in yards allowed (283.6) and No. 7 against the run (111.3). The Tide rank second nationally in total defense (264.6 yards per game) and is third in points allowed (14.3).
Florida's defense has 38 sacks, tied for fifth in the FBS. It is also among the top teams nationally in three-and-out (31.2 percent), and points per game (15.5).
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In the four games prior to Florida's ugly 27-2 loss to Florida State in Week 13, Gators opponents combined for 38 points. It's a devastating group that has the luxury of honing in on an Alabama attack that relies all too heavily on Henry and mammoth run blocking from that offensive line.
The Crimson Tide's passing attack is nothing to get excited about, a clear step down from 2014. Senior Jake Coker (15 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is a serviceable quarterback, though he lacks the big-play ability of Blake Sims and doesn't have the luxury of chucking the ball to a receiver like Amari Cooper when all else fails.
The good news for Alabama is that Coker has cut down on his mistakes as of late, throwing just one pick in his last four games. Even more heartening was his clutch performance against Auburn in the Iron Bowl last week, one that drew praise from ESPN's Peter Burns:
Freshman wide receiver Calvin Ridley is one to watch for the future. He leads Alabama this season in receptions (67), yards (791) and receiving touchdowns (5).
Florida started the season with freshman Will Grier at signal-caller, only to see his October suspension for a positive PED test lead to Treon Harris taking over in Gainesville. Harris is an athletic quarterback with a strong arm, but his game is marred by the twin scourges of inaccuracy and poor decision-making. He might have to zero in on his targets without a clean pocket in this one, as Alabama has racked up 41 sacks on the year.
For all the ability he flashes on the ground, Harris doesn't produce much in this facet of the game, either. He usually notches around 10 or 11 carries and has a miserable 2.6 average yards per tote this year. Any chance of them beating Alabama starts with Harris making plays either through the air or on the ground.
Running back Kelvin Taylor has put in a solid season (977 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns), but he may find it difficult against Alabama's top-ranked rushing defense. The Crimson Tide have allowed just 78.9 rushing yards per game on just 2.47 yards per carry, per NCAA.com. Florida coach Jim McElwain admits Harris might be running more out of necessity than design in this game, per Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee:
If Florida is to overcome this ruthless run defense, it will need Harris to threaten in the read-option game and keep defenders from keying on Taylor at the point of attack.
Some deep throws might also come in handy for Florida, as Thompson notes Alabama's defense might indeed have an Achilles' heel:
"If the Tide do have a weakness, it is pass coverage. Arkansas is the only SEC team to allow more completions of 20 yards or longer than Alabama (36) and none has given up more 50-yard throws (five). Meanwhile, Harris has 18 completions of 25 yards or longer, including touchdowns of 53 and 66 yards to freshman phenom Antonio Callaway.
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Now isn't the time for Florida to take an ultra-conservative approach just because the conference championship is on the line. As the underdogs, the Gators could use a big passing play or two at the start to perhaps shock Alabama and get them on the back foot.
Taking a few shots downfield early might also keep the Alabama safeties from creeping into the box and stacking up against the run. Add in a couple of turnovers from Alabama on offense, and you have the recipe for a potential upset, instead of a blowout like the oddsmakers are forecasting.
Anything is possible on Championship Saturday, but not everything is probable. Alabama should execute its game plan on both sides of the ball, with the offensive line paving the way for a pair of Henry touchdowns—and maybe even a jump pass—while Harris and company can't quite do enough to keep up.
Prediction: Alabama 27-17 Florida
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