NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 13
Rivalry weekend never seems to disappoint.
Week 13 of the 2015 season had everything—close calls, upsets, last-second victories and a 296-pound offensive lineman rumbling in for a decent-sized touchdown run.
In the end, one Top 5 team in the Associated Press poll fell in heartbreaking fashion, while another scooped up a massive blowout victory over its in-state rival. Two other Top 10 teams went down swinging, and the bottom portion of the ranking went through yet another upheaval.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As we always do at this time, here is the latest projection of the AP Top 25, which will be released Sunday afternoon. Remember, these are not the College Football Playoff committee rankings.
This is the predicted media poll, which usually is a good barometer of what will happen Tuesday night in the important Top 25, along with a few spotlighted teams that moved up and fell down this weekend.
| 1. Clemson | 1 | 12-0 | Won 37-32 at South Carolina |
| 2. Alabama | 2 | 11-1 | Won 29-13 at Auburn |
| 3. Iowa | 3 | 12-0 | Won 28-20 at Nebraska |
| 4. Oklahoma | 5 | 11-1 | Won 58-23 at No. 9 Oklahoma State |
| 5. Michigan State | 6 | 11-1 | Won 55-16 vs. Penn State |
| 6. Ohio State | 8 | 11-1 | Won 42-13 at No. 12 Michigan |
| 7. North Carolina | 11 | 11-1 | Won 45-34 at NC State |
| 8. Stanford | 13 | 10-2 | Won 38-36 vs. No. 4 Notre Dame |
| 9. Notre Dame | 4 | 10-2 | Lost 38-36 at No. 13 Stanford |
| 10. Florida State | 14 | 10-2 | Won 27-2 at No. 10 Florida |
| 11. TCU | 15 | 10-2 | Won 28-21 (OT) vs. No. 7 Baylor |
| 12. Baylor | 7 | 9-2 | Lost 28-21 (OT) at No. 15 TCU |
| 13. Northwestern | 17 | 10-2 | Won 24-14 at Illinois |
| 14. Oklahoma State | 9 | 10-2 | Lost 58-23 vs. No. 5 Oklahoma |
| 15. Florida | 10 | 10-2 | Lost 27-2 vs. No. 14 Florida State |
| 16. Houston | 21 | 11-1 | Won 52-31 vs. No. 16 Navy |
| 17. Ole Miss | 19 | 9-3 | Won 38-27 at No. 23 Mississippi State |
| 18. Oregon | 18 | 9-3 | Won 52-42 vs. Oregon State |
| 19. Michigan | 12 | 9-3 | Lost 42-13 vs. No. 8 Ohio State |
| 20. Temple | 25 | 10-2 | Won 27-3 vs. UConn |
| 21. Navy | 16 | 9-2 | Lost 52-31 at No. 21 Houston |
| 22. Utah | NR | 9-3 | Won 20-14 vs. Colorado |
| 23. LSU | NR | 8-3 | Won 19-7 vs. Texas A&M |
| 24. Wisconsin | NR | 9-3 | Won 31-21 at Minnesota |
| 25. Western Kentucky | NR | 10-2 | Won 49-28 vs. Marshall |
Moving up
Oklahoma and Michigan State
Oklahoma most likely nailed down a College Football Playoff spot Saturday night, and it did it in style. The Sooners threw up 44 points on one-loss Oklahoma State before halftime and won by five touchdowns.
When other teams struggled away from home Saturday against less-than-stellar opposition, the Sooners hammered their ranked rivals, who were also trying to stay in the playoff picture. Since the surprise loss to Texas, Oklahoma has played like one of the most talented and balanced teams in the country, and now it has an outright Big 12 title.
Michigan State still has a shot at grabbing a place in the final four, too, after throttling Penn State by a score of 55-16 on Saturday in East Lansing. The Spartans, winners of the Big Ten East, will now face undefeated Iowa in a title matchup that should be a guaranteed play-in game for the playoff.
There was some debate over Oklahoma and Michigan State's AP poll order heading into Week 13, with the Sooners only holding a tiny nine-point advantage over the Spartans. While MSU may have the more acceptable loss this season, OU's 35-point win this weekend came on the road. The Sooners should stay ahead again.
North Carolina and Stanford
Joining one-loss Ohio State as longer shots for the College Football Playoff are North Carolina and Stanford, who will get rankings bumps heading into their respective conference championship games.
North Carolina had an easier time with NC State than it had with Virginia Tech last weekend, throwing up 31 points on the Wolfpack in the first quarter on Saturday. The Tar Heels and their high-powered offense are just a couple of bad Week 1 throws away from being a serious playoff contender, but they'll get a shot next week at No. 1 Clemson.
Stanford snatched a home victory over playoff-hopeful Notre Dame in dramatic fashion Saturday night, with Conrad Ukropina hitting a game-winning, 45-yard field goal after quarterback Kevin Hogan got the Cardinal in position with less than a minute remaining. Even as a two-loss team, the Cardinal could sneak back in with a Pac-12 title win and some more chaos in Week 14.
One area to watch here is if the AP poll follows the committee's lead and puts Stanford ahead of North Carolina this week. UNC had the advantage with the AP last week but was five spots behind Stanford in the CFP rankings. Here, I'll stick with the Heels and their one-loss record over the Cardinal.
Houston and Western Kentucky
Just one week after losing to UConn in a heartbreaker away from home, Houston took hold of the American Athletic Conference's Western Division and the Group of Five's New Year's Six berth with a 52-31 win over Navy.
Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. looked healthy again with 391 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns, and he outgunned Navy star Keenan Reynolds in a Friday free-for-all. When the final whistle sounded, the Cougars had cooled off one of the nation's hottest teams.
Houston will now face Temple in the AAC title game next weekend, and it should receive a decent-sized rankings spike Sunday afternoon. This projection has Houston nestled ahead of the three-loss teams that were also victorious this weekend. Beating Navy by 21 should carry some decent weight.
Rounding out the Top 25 this week is another Group of Five member—the Conference USA's Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers edged four-loss USC in this week's projection, as they've dominated their conference foes this season and only have losses at Indiana and LSU to their name. USC might snatch the spot, but the pollsters should give some credit to a two-loss G5 power.
Moving down
Notre Dame
The resilient Fighting Irish battled through quite a bit this season, and it still had a chance to stay in the College Football Playoff race with just seconds remaining on the clock at Stanford.
But Stanford head coach David Shaw's decision to save his timeouts worked, and the Cardinal knocked off Notre Dame at home. The Irish's second loss of the season ended their playoff hopes, as they already had a slim margin for error as an independent.
"If the Irish were an ACC member, they could be looking to a rematch with No. 1 Clemson in next week’s ACC Championship Game—and would still have CFP hopes," Matt Hayes of the Sporting News wrote. "Instead Notre Dame has its independent status and the growing uncertainty in how it will impact the future."
Even with the loss, Notre Dame should still have a shot at a New Year's Six bowl game. I'm projecting that Notre Dame will stay in the Top 10—just behind Stanford—after its second gut-punch loss of 2015.
Oklahoma State and Florida
For the second week in a row, Oklahoma State couldn't make its favorable home schedule in the Big 12 count. The Cowboys were on the wrong end of a lopsided score in Bedlam, and now their biggest rivals will be dancing their way to the final four.
Oklahoma State's biggest issue down the stretch of the season was the ground game. According to Jake Trotter of ESPN.com, Oklahoma State was "outgained on the ground 648 yards to 140" in losses to both Baylor and Oklahoma. Luckily for the Pokes, a couple more teams below them lost this weekend, cushioning their fall down the Top 25.
Florida's lackluster play on offense finally caught up to it Saturday night in a rough 27-2 loss in the Swamp to rival Florida State. As the Seminoles look set to take their spot in the Top 10, the Gators have to regroup in a major way before facing No. 2 Alabama next weekend.
As I said last weekend, Jim McElwain's team is ahead of schedule in terms of contention on a national level. However, Florida just hasn't looked the same since the suspension of quarterback Will Grier, and it has ultimately cost it style points and poll positions down the stretch. Now the Gators need a miracle.
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh's first "Big Game in the Big House" turned out to be a big disappointment for Wolverines everywhere. Michigan lost its third game of the season, and Ohio State might have saved its long shot at a playoff berth.
Ohio State outgained Michigan 369-57 on the ground, dominating the line of scrimmage en route to a huge win away from home. Michigan's excellent defense was picked apart by an Ohio State offense that had major problems last weekend against Michigan State.
"Harbaugh vs. [Urban] Meyer could be a worthy successor to the famed 10-Year War, which pitted Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes,. But Michigan will have to show it can be a serious threat to Ohio State first," Bleacher Report's Greg Wallace wrote. "Saturday, that didn’t happen, and that’ll leave a bitter taste in Wolverine fans’ mouths for the next 365 days."
After two tough losses earlier in the season, Michigan came crashing back down to Earth on Saturday with its first bad defeat of the Harbaugh era. The margin of victory will keep the Wolverines from staying ahead of other three-loss teams like Oregon and Ole Miss, who won this weekend.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
