Patriots vs. Broncos: Full New England Game Preview

Since the New England Patriots' hot September start made an unbeaten season a realistic possibility, this game has always been circled as the biggest potential stumbling block. As a battered Patriots squad hits the road to face the Denver Broncos, New England faces the distinct possibility of entering a game as an underdog for the first (and perhaps only) time all season.

Granted, this isn't going to become the type of game most would have expected at the start of the season. We won't see the 17th rendition of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry, with plantar fascia and rib injuries sidelining Manning for the foreseeable future. Instead, the Broncos have built their 8-2 record on the league's best defense, which has served as a modern update on the franchise's famed "Orange Crush" units.

The Broncos are far from infallible, though, as their point differential suggests that of a six-win team. By that metric (Pythagorean win expectancy), Denver has outperformed expectations more than any team in the league. Even with Brock Osweiler appearing under control in his first NFL start, the Broncos aren't the type of team that is likely to run away and hide from the Pats.

Nonetheless, Denver presents more challenges than any opponent to date. Read on for the matchups and factors to consider as the Patriots attempt to keep the dream of perfection alive Sunday night.

Location: Sports Authority Field; Denver

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC

Week 11 Results and Recap

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AFC East Standings

1. New England Patriots (10-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
3. New York Jets (5-5)
4. Miami Dolphins (4-6)

The Pats may have opened a two-game lead in the AFC for the first time all year, but they did so while looking less formidable than ever. New England's 20-13 slopfest of a win over the Buffalo Bills was a slipshod game marked by poor officiating and execution from both sides, which made for borderline unwatchable football at times.

The 20-point night was the Pats' lowest offensive output of the season, as the offense saw its NFL-record streak of 38 consecutive quarters with a score come to an end. An already depleted receiving corps lost Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson during the game, leaving the likes of Chris Harper and Scott Chandler serving as integral targets for Tom Brady. Amendola's departure essentially forced the Pats to abandon the passing game, as Brady went 3-of-7 for 42 yards and an interception without his top wide receiver on the field.

However, the defense did play one of its best games of the year when asked to carry the load. The Bills held an edge in time of possession—32:55 to 27:05—a margin eclipsed this season by only the Jets in Week 7 (New York held the ball for 33:03 that afternoon). Nevertheless, Buffalo was never able to wear New England down, averaging just 4.8 yards per play and reaching the red zone on just two of its 13 drives.

With top playmaker Jamie Collins potentially returning soon, the defense looks like a unit the Patriots can lean on when necessary. A Super Bowl isn't within reach unless the offense can produce at an elite level, but it was encouraging to see New England pull out a win when almost nothing worked for Brady and Co.

News and Notes

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Broncos-Patriots About Defense

In the preseason, this game was always going to center on Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning.  Now that Manning is no longer able to play, much of the narrative has still focused on Brock Osweiler and the potential similarities to Brady usurping Drew Bledsoe in 2001. However, Sports Illustrated's Greg Bedard offered a different perspective, arguing that the defenses deserve the majority of our attention in this matchup:

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Breaking news: the attention on Sunday night should be on the two defenses facing off, not the quarterbacks, because those units are special.

They are No. 1 (Patriots) and 2 (Broncos) in scoring defense. They are 1 (Broncos) and 2 (Patriots) in sacks. The Broncos also lead the league in total defense, passing defense and are second in defensive passer rating (74.2).

In other words, even if we had Manning vs. Brady at full strength, this matchup would still be a defensive matchup.

"

The advanced metrics support the standard stats that Bedard cites, as both squads boast top-10 defenses by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric entering Week 12. And while the Broncos have generally held the crown of "best defense in the league" through the first three months, the Patriots are the ones who will get to face the green quarterback in this contest.

Given the state of both offenses, it's fair to expect conservative game plans from both Gary Kubiak and Josh McDaniels. Thus, despite the pregame storylines, the game's outcome might actually boil down to which defense and special teams unit can create the biggest advantage for the offense.

O-Line About to Settle Down?

The Patriots have gone against the grain this season as the only offense to regularly rotate along its offensive line. While that approach has at times protected a callow and injury-plagued unit, WEEI's Ryan Hannable wondered if the unit that closed out the Week 11 game against Buffalo will be the one Bill Belichick sticks with more regularly moving forward:

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While the Patriots continued with their trademark rotation — using four combinations over their 13 drives — they seemed to settle on one that worked.

On nine of the 13 drives, New England’s line went (from left to right): Marcus Cannon, Shaq Mason, Bryan Stork, Josh Kline and Sebastian Vollmer.

Two things that stood out were Stork and Vollmer didn’t start the game, but played major roles and center David Andrews appeared to get phased out during the game.

"

Granted, the line didn't exactly perform well against the Bills, so we have no meaningful sample that suggests this unit actually works. Moreover, there's still the question of whether Vollmer is better suited at left tackle over Cannon and if rookie guard Tre' Jackson will have a role when he returns (perhaps this week) from his knee injury.

Conventional wisdom would argue that continuity is critical to basic functionality for offensive lines, as the ability to identify blitzers, pass off rushers and run-block in phase typically requires chemistry between linemen. Unlike last season, though, the Patriots don't appear to be approaching a clear solution anytime soon.

Wilson's Cornerback Appearance

Cornerback has been the thinnest position on New England's roster since the summer, which has forced Belichick and Matt Patricia to creatively scheme around the unit's shortcomings. Last week, that involved safety Tavon Wilson getting his most extended defensive run of the season at slot corner. As ESPN.com's Mike Reiss noted, Wilson hadn't even played the position since his collegiate days at Illinois:

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Wilson, a 2012 second-round draft pick out of Illinois who appealed to the Patriots in part because of his versatility to play some corner, has mostly been a special-teamer and dime linebacker in recent years. In 2015, he’s been behind starters [Devin] McCourty and Patrick Chung at safety, and also top reserves Duron Harmon and rookie Jordan Richards.

"

According to Reiss' snap counts, Wilson had played just nine defensive snaps the entire season before Monday night. But for all the Pats lack in terms of corner depth, safety is arguably the deepest spot on the entire roster, with New England employing eight players at the position after signing Dewey McDonald this week.

Consequently, apart from the Arizona Cardinals, who will also use four safeties at times in their dime packages, no team relies on the position more than the Patriots. Wilson would be special teams fodder on the majority of rosters, but in Foxborough, he's part of a versatile corps that has helped keep the secondary afloat.

Latest Injury News

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Danny Amendola, New England

The tipping point for the Patriots offense came with Amendola's exit Monday night, as New England essentially reverted to a conservative, run-oriented approach after his knee injury against Buffalo. An MRI early this week revealed a knee sprain for Amendola, which is good news for his long-term prognosis but leaves his status for the Denver game in question.

For what it's worth, the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe suggested earlier this week that Amendola would play, citing a report from CSNNE's Tom Curran. It's likely about pain tolerance for Amendola this week, though given his injury history, he probably holds a greater risk of aggravating his injury than most players. As such, it might be wise for the Pats to exercise caution here, even if Amendola's absence would severely hamper the offense.

Jamie Collins, New England

Collins still does not appear ready to come back from his mystery illness, having not practiced Wednesday or Thursday of this week. However, ESPN's Michele Steele did report that Collins had been in the building, which appears to suggest progress on his part:

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Not spotted at practice but one of his teammates on defense told me it was good to have LB Jamie Collins back in the building

— Michele Steele (@ESPNMichele) November 25, 2015"

Given that Collins apparently lost significant weight and strength while sick, it's not surprising that he would need time to rebuild his body before returning to practice and preparing for a game. Next week's game against the Philadelphia Eagles might be a good time to get Collins reaccustomed to game action as he hopefully works back to full strength before the postseason.

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver

Sanders was expected to play last week between shoulder and ankle injuries, but the cold weather in Chicago apparently stiffened up his body and made him a surprise scratch. One would think he would be able to suit up a week later, but since this game should also have frigid weather at night, his status can't be assured until both team formally file the game-day inactives.

The speedy receiver has been practicing on a limited basis this week, which is progress after he missed practices last week. Though he's seen his production dip in recent weeks due to injury, Sanders has still scored from 64 and 75 yards out, making him a top priority for New England's defense if he does play.

DeMarcus Ware, Denver

The eight-time Pro Bowler has not practiced or played since reaggravating a back injury two weeks ago, and he admitted he is unlikely to play Sunday, per Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Ware leads the team with 6.5 sacks despite missing three games already, and his absence will provide a huge relief to New England's tackles. In his place, Shaquil Barrett and Shane Ray will likely rotate at edge-rusher opposite Von Miller.

For this week's full injury report, visit Patriots.com.

Key Matchups

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Rob Gronkowski vs. T.J. Ward

This isn't going to evoke good memories for Patriots fans, as Ward infamously went low on Gronkowski as a member of the Cleveland Browns in 2013, tearing Gronk's ACL and ending his season. While certainly one of the league's better box safeties, Ward has also developed a dubious reputation, having been fined $33,150 over the past three weeks for hitting a defenseless player, punching Jeremy Maclin and wearing an untucked jersey.

Thus, it's safe to say there won't be many warm feelings in this matchup. Gronkowski has seen his numbers plunge in recent weeks as teams move heaven and earth to prevent him from wrecking their game plans. If you toss out his 75-yard touchdown against the New York Giants two weeks ago, Gronk has accumulated just 10 catches for 122 yards and no other scores the past three games.

The Broncos will surely hone in on him again, as middle linebacker Brandon Marshall figures to jam him at the line on most plays. Still, given Denver's talent edge across the board in comparison to the Pats offense, New England must find a way to free its only remaining game-breaker.

Sebastian Vollmer vs. Von Miller

Denver's fearsome pass rush has a little less bite at the moment, with DeMarcus Ware out nursing a back injury. However, that still leaves the Broncos' other All-Pro edge-rusher in Von Miller, who has rushed from the defensive left side on 77.3 percent of opposing dropbacks this season, per Pro Football Focus.

Miller rushed from both sides last week against the Chicago Bears, but he'll likely line up across from Sebastian Vollmer on the majority of snaps. Vollmer didn't start in his return to the lineup last Monday but ended up playing the final 11 drives of the game in place of Cameron Fleming at his customary right tackle spot. 

Whereas last week's challenge was more about figuring out where Rex Ryan would send pressure from, this week will present a much more straightforward but challenging task. New England's receivers will need time to find space against Denver's secondary, and Miller is the player most likely to harass Brady and prevent the Pats from establishing any offensive rhythm.

Malcolm Butler vs. Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders

It's unclear who New England's top corner will cover, but Bill Belichick will likely ask Butler to perform in isolation coverage while Logan Ryan receives safety help against Denver's other Pro Bowl receiver. Last season, Belichick mixed his coverages against Denver, rarely locking his corners onto one particular receiver at any point during the game.

But this year's secondary has largely relied on man coverage, simplifying the tasks and reducing the amount of communication needed for a green secondary. Sanders is a question mark to even play, as covered on the previous slide, and his absence would remove an important vertical threat from Denver's offense and generally constrict the field around Osweiler.

With the struggles of the Broncos' passing game, neither Thomas nor Sanders is as much of a challenge as his career statistics might indicate. However, Butler and the Pats secondary will need to contain the deep threat each player provides and force Osweiler to string together error-free plays on methodical drives.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Malcom Brown

The rookie first-round pick has quietly come on in recent weeks, supplanting Sealver Siliga and Akiem Hicks as the top run-stuffer in base packages. Consequently, Brown has played over 40 percent of the snaps in the past two games after reaching that threshold just once over his first eight games, per PFF.

This week's game figures to be heavy on base-package personnel early, as Gary Kubiak was able to revert to his movement-based outside zone run scheme with the more mobile Osweiler under center. The Broncos ran the ball on 53 percent of their offensive plays last week, the first time all season that they ran more frequently than they passed in a single game.

Kubiak figures to continue protecting Osweiler if possible, especially since Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson thrived to the tune of 170 yards on 4.7 yards per carry against the Bears. Run-first teams have generally played into New England's defensive strengths, as the Bills found out last week, so it will be up to Brown and the rest of the Pats interior to ensure that Denver's callow quarterback must play from behind the chains on Sunday.

Broncos X-Factor of the Week: Ryan Harris

If this name is unfamiliar to you, you're likely not alone. Harris signed with the Broncos during OTAs to provide training-camp depth, but following season-ending injuries to Ryan Clady and Ty Sambrailo, he's been tasked with the starting left tackle job for the season.

Harris is a 30-year-old journeyman who has been twice cut by the Broncos and was hardly adequate at right tackle for the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Nevertheless, despite his modest resume, PFF has charted Harris with allowing just two sacks all season and none since Week 4. 

Nonetheless, Chandler Jones should be salivating after going without a suck against Buffalo on Monday. The Broncos would prefer to control the clock with their ground game, but there will be instances when Osweiler needs time to pick up longer down-and-distance conversions. When that situation arises, the Jones vs. Harris matchup on the edge will be an important one to watch.

Prediction: Broncos 21, Patriots 20

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As the Patriots and their fans know well, 16-0 isn't a particularly validating accomplishment if a championship doesn't follow suit. So if and when New England drops a regular-season game, it certainly won't be cause for panic or an indictment of the team's Super Bowl prospects.

With that being said, this feels like the perfect storm of circumstances for the unbeaten streak to end. Denver has the capacity to carry out a superior formula of what the Bills attempted last week, as Kubiak's preferred run scheme can allow the Broncos to win time of possession, while its defensive personnel will make every yard difficult for the New England offense.

Brady has historically owned the Broncos at Gillette Stadium, but playing in Colorado has presented a different set of challenges. At Denver, he is just 2-5 lifetime with a 59.6 percent completion rate, a ratio of 12 touchdowns to seven interceptions and a mediocre 88.1 overall quarterback rating.

The Patriots were able to generate timely defensive stops and a big special teams turnover to squeak by against the .500-level Bills. The Broncos haven't often looked like serious Super Bowl contenders, but they're a superior squad to Buffalo. The Pats will stay in this game throughout, but on the road, this dilapidated squad might finally run out of gas.

Prediction: Broncos 21, Patriots 20