Play That Man! NBA Reserves Who Deserve More Time During Early 2015-16 Season
Not every NBA rotation is perfect this time of year.
In fact, more are mixed up than in ideal working order. Coaches are still attempting to figure out which players are due for breakouts, which members of their rosters will regress and what lineup combinations promote the highest level of play. Experimentation runs rampant during the opening salvo of every campaign, and this year has been no different.
Already, three necessary changes have emerged.
They might not be implemented right away—or at all—but they'd each help their respective squads work toward a goal. One would give a rebuilding team another young body to learn on the job. Another would provide an all-too-necessary spark for a moribund outfit. The last would just make a contender even more competitive.
It's not too early for change, even if it can admittedly be tough to pull the trigger.
Tyus Jones
The Minnesota Timberwolves are in an interesting pickle.
Though they're still clearly rebuilding around the burgeoning franchise centerpieces that are Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, they're also exceeding early expectations. Given the struggles some members of the Western Conference playoff establishment are experiencing, they're hanging around in the postseason picture and seem to have a legitimate shot at earning entry.
Unfortunately, the success forces head coach Sam Mitchell to make tough rotation decisions on a nightly basis. He has to determine how he wants to balance the minutes divvied out to competitive veterans—Kevin Garnett, Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller—with the ones handed to young up-and-comers learning on the job. If the scale tips too far toward either side, it could result in stunted growth or too many losses.
For the most part, Mitchell has done a fine job. But there's one imbalance that needs to be remedied.
Garnett, even though he's started in all 12 of his appearances, has played fewer minutes per game than Towns, Nemanja Bjelica and Gorgui Dieng. During the Wolves' comeback victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night, he was an enthusiastic cheerleader in the fourth quarter—the perfect outcome.
Prince's role has been a bit larger, but he's still not impeding the growth of either Wiggins or Shabazz Muhammad, who is playing 17.6 minutes per game.
The problem comes at point guard, where Andre Miller has played far too many minutes. Sure, he's been fairly effective while on the floor, but that playing time simply has to go in the direction of Tyus Jones.
As of now, the numbers don't support this claim. Jones has made just two appearances during the early portion of his rookie go-round, playing 14 minutes to the tune of a putrid minus-6.6 player efficiency rating. He's missed all five of his shots from the field while recording just a single rebound, assist and steal.
Miller has, for all intents and purposes, been the vastly superior player.
However, if we could judge a prospect based solely on his first dozen minutes of NBA action, player evaluation would be so much simpler. We'd immediately know who was going to turn into a star and whom teams should cut to save themselves any future trouble. Sadly, that's just not how it works.
"Tyus has done a good job," Mitchell told Dennis Brackin of the Minneapolis Star Tribune after the first four games of the 2015-16 campaign. "His practices have been great, his workouts, and I thought he played well in the preseason. The season is long, and everybody gets a chance to play. At some point, Tyus will get a chance to play."
If that's the plan, "at some point" should be the equivalent of "right now."
Playing a 39-year-old point guard does only one thing, and that's keep Minnesota moderately more competitive. If Miller were still performing at an All-Star level, the situation would be entirely different, but his meager production can't justify keeping Jones on the bench at all times.
Hindering the development of a first-round pick with a championship pedigree isn't worth the trouble when the player doing the hindering is merely average.
Plus, Mitchell is correct that Jones looked good during preseason action. All the typical caveats apply, but the No. 24 pick out of Duke did average 5.7 points and 3.5 assists in limited action while playing efficiently enough to earn an above-average 17.3 PER, via RealGM.com.
That should've already been enough to force Minnesota's hand.
Ricky Rubio is obviously entrenched as the starting point guard, while Zach LaVine rightfully earns plenty of minutes as the primary backup. But there's no reason whatsoever for Jones to be buried on the fourth line of the depth chart, unless the Wolves are harboring delusions of grandeur that will see them compete for a top playoff seed in 2015-16.
K.J. McDaniels
Poll a dozen people, and they'll probably all give you a similar answer about what's plaguing the Houston Rockets. In one word: effort.
First, let's turn to CBS Sports' Matt Moore, who wrote the following in Eye on Basketball's 3-Man Weave:
"The Rockets are doomed right now. They started a lot further away from the Warriors than the Clippers did. The Clippers lost both games to Golden State and went into this funk, but at least they built a lead and battled. The Rockets have rolled over. There's zero leadership in the Rockets locker room right now. They're either not listening to vets like Jason Terry or just plain don't care. It's a disaster on both ends. It's one thing if you miss shots you normally make. It's another if you completely quit because those shots aren't falling. Houston is just getting run over by teams that are simply trying harder, and that's an issue.
"
Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney expressed similar sentiments while discussing the firing of now-former head coach Kevin McHale:
"The Houston Rockets wear their dismay on their sleeve. Just a few months—and 11 regular-season games—removed from their impressive trip to the Western Conference finals, the Rockets have fired head coach Kevin McHale. The reasoning behind McHale's three-year extension last December had apparently grown stale in the eyes of the front office. Inexplicably poor effort from a team in a 4–7 start will do that.
"
Even since J.B. Bickerstaff took over as the primary clipboard holder, the Rockets haven't been able to get rid of the overarching apathy. They're mentally defeated as soon as they step onto the court, and any bad sequence quickly spirals out of control.
James Harden and Dwight Howard haven't proven themselves as capable leaders, and precious few members of the roster have consistently played as if they give a damn. When you're entering the season harboring expectations of 50-plus wins and home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, that's highly problematic.
The Rockets need a spark—particularly on the defensive end, where last year's eighth-ranked defense has slipped all the way down to No. 25, allowing an unacceptable 108.1 points per 100 possessions. Ideally, the spark comes in the form of an energetic stopper who's willing to fly around the court, wreaking havoc and putting his body on the line in order to make a positive impact for his teammates.
As it happens, Houston has one of those glued to its bench.
K.J. McDaniels played only 33 minutes over the course of 10 games once the Rockets acquired him midway through his rookie season, and he hasn't seen much more action during the follow-up campaign. Thus far, he's made just five appearances for a total of 30 minutes—hardly enough to get a sense of what he can bring to the proverbial table.
This offseason, he signed a three-year, $10 million deal, and it wasn't just to sit on the bench when he wasn't suiting up for the NBA Development League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers. It was to bring his intensity to the court of the Toyota Center.
Since his brief stint in the D-League, McDaniels has played in only two of four possible games. He entered a blowout loss against the Boston Celtics on Nov. 16 with his team down 25 in the fourth quarter, so those were meaningless minutes.
The reprise wasn't any more significant, as he came into a Nov. 20 loss at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies down 20 points in the third quarter, eventually exiting early in the fourth when the margin had been halved.
McDaniels hasn't really received an opportunity to prove himself since he was with the Philadelphia 76ers, submitting highlight-reel defensive plays like the ones you can see above and below.
During his rookie year out of Clemson, he helped the Sixers allow just 103.9 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, which would've been good for the league's No. 11 defensive rating. That mark rose by 1.7 when he was on the bench or the Rockets roster, and that discrepancy isn't a context-created fluke.
According to NBA.com's statistical databases, he's consistently given scorers fits during his brief career in the Association:
| 2014-15 | 44.2 | 42.1 |
| 2015-16 | 39.0 | 25.0 |
For whatever it's worth, he was also an impact defender in college.
During his final season with the Tigers, he led the ACC with 3.1 defensive win shares, per Sports-Reference.com, and his defensive rating placed him behind only Virginia's Akil Mitchell. His defensive box plus/minus (7.3) trailed only the marks earned by UNLV's Khem Birch (8.2), Arizona State's Jordan Bachynski (7.8) and Georgia Tech's Daniel Miller (7.5), looking at all players who logged at least 1,000 minutes in 2013-14.
His point-preventing prowess should carry over to some extent. It already did in Philadelphia, and he's created some highlights in Houston as well.
McDaniels might not give the Rockets the offense they need, but Harden and Howard should eventually pick up the slack in that regard. Defense is a more dire desire, and this young wing has the ability to not only protect the rim and win some individual battles, but also to provide some hopefully contagious levels of effort.
Not every team in need of a spark has one like this waiting patiently for a legitimate opportunity.
Anthony Morrow
We've advocated for a rookie getting minutes on a team in prime position to grant his wishes as well as a bench player receiving more time for his ability to function as a potential defensive spark. Now, how about Anthony Morrow getting some love because he's flat-out better than those ahead of him in the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation?
Andre Roberson has started at the 2 for the Western Conference hopefuls, and he's typically been spelled by Dion Waiters, who is somehow playing the fourth-most minutes per game (28.0) of anyone on the roster. It's a defense-offense rotation, but the pieces involved don't exactly make sense.
If the Thunder want to continue playing Roberson alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, that's fine. It's not the ideal decision, but it's at least justifiable.
Giving Waiters so many more minutes than Morrow, however, is not the least bit justifiable. Even though he's a stronger fit on the offensive end, the sharpshooter is playing only 16.3 minutes per game.
Waiters is talented, sure. He's also a turnover-prone player who experiences significant mental lapses far too frequently, and his torrid perimeter shooting is likely to regress as the season wears on. Coming off a season in which he shot 29.7 percent from beyond the arc, it's unlikely he maintains a three-point percentage north of 40.
On the flip side, Morrow has one of the quickest releases in the sport, leaving him capable of serving as an ideal floor-spacing presence.
When a player can catch the ball and move immediately into his shooting motion, as Morrow routinely does, defenses can't cheat off him and attempt to help out against a driving player such as Durant or Westbrook. The gravitational pull he exerts is too strong.
That's why Morrow's on/off splits are better than his positional counterparts', even as he's connected on "only" 38.1 percent of his long-range attempts—his lowest mark since 2012-13:
Is this just a function of Morrow happening to spend more time alongside Durant and Westbrook?
Not exactly:
| Andre Roberson | 316 | 148 | 46.8% |
| Dion Waiters | 420 | 96 | 22.9% |
| Anthony Morrow | 228 | 29 | 12.7% |
You can make the argument that Roberson's on/off split is a direct result of playing with the superstars, but the same line of thinking doesn't apply to Morrow. His mere presence simply makes the offense much better, and that's more ideal than having a conscienceless gunner such as Waiters commandeering possessions without involving too many teammates.
As Chad Waters explained for Today's Fastbreak, defense is really the only issue here:
"Morrow's weakness has always been his defense, and the Thunder already have loads of offensive weaponry in the lineup. Maybe Morrow's defense is just too bad to get him on the floor, but it'd sure be nice to see him get extended minutes to provide that extra spacing. Donovan has said he prefers [Kyle] Singler's defense over Morrow's, but Singler's defense isn't all that special either.
"
Roberson is the exception, as we've already established.
But the other relevant players—including Kyle Singler this time—are all below-average defenders, and the differences between them aren't large enough to make up for the extra spacing Morrow brings. And just for some added perspective, the sharpshooter's defensive box plus/minus is actually better than Singler's.
Eventually, first-year head coach Billy Donovan should figure this out. His schemes at Florida always involved a plethora of floor-spacing elements, and finding them is arguably even more important in NBA basketball.
The Thunder offense is already scoring at a high level, posting a 110.6 offensive rating that trails only the mark produced by the Golden State Warriors and is tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers. But there's still room for improvement as OKC attempts to ascend back up the Western Conference hierarchy.
With the exception of a certain Bay Area squad, no one in the NBA achieves perfection this early in the season. But make the right moves, and you can get closer to it.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Nov. 25's games.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
