Realistic Projections for Indianapolis Colts' Skill Players for the Rest of 2015
The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the most underachieving teams in the league during the first half of the 2015 season.
As a result, Colts players have also ranked among the most disappointing fantasy players this season. The Colts offense was supposed to be a fantasy gold mine in 2015, ranking alongside offenses like Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New England as some of the most fantasy-rich units in the league.
With a wealth of yards and touchdown opportunities to spread around, even a team as deep at the skill positions as Indianapolis was supposed to have multiple top-end fantasy players.
Obviously that hasn't happened. But what does it mean for the Colts going forward? With a much easier schedule in the back half of the season, a change in offensive coordinator and a complicated quarterback situation, Colts players could play a big part in fantasy football playoff runs.
Quarterbacks
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With Andrew Luck out two to six weeks with kidney and abdominal injuries, owners are in a bit of a bind.
Luck has already underperformed to start the season, and now could be gone for nearly the remainder of the season. If he's out for the full six weeks, his first game back wouldn't come until Week 16, the fantasy football championships for most leagues. He's 21st among quarterbacks in standard scoring so far this season, and it may be tempting to drop the quarterback for a much-needed waiver-wire acquisition.
Still, the quarterback is worth rostering down the stretch, especially if a team is well on its way to the fantasy football playoffs and is looking for a postseason edge. The Colts schedule is fantastic down the back half, and if Luck does make it back in time for the full fantasy playoffs, he's looking at facing Miami, Houston and Jacksonville.
But even without the schedule, Luck is a potential home run threat every time he's on the field. Even while disappointing to start the season, Luck still averaged 18 points per game, which would put him among the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Even more promising, Luck averaged more than 21 points per game in the four games after returning from a rib injury, and that was against a nightmare schedule that included New England, Carolina and Denver.
When Luck's healthy, he's a touchdown producer and a volume hog. With the Colts likely fighting for the playoffs when he returns, he could be a game-changer down the stretch.
Matt Hasselbeck
The Colts' backup quarterback produced 15 and 16 fantasy points, respectively, during his two starts earlier this season, and that's likely going to be his cap. The Jacksonville and Houston defenses were both playing horribly at the time, and the schedule over the next few weeks should be pretty similar.
If needing a short-term streamer, Hasselbeck could be an option, but there is a potential downside with him. Hasselbeck is 40, after all, and he was terrible in the preseason. It would not be at all surprising for his play to drop precipitously at any time. He isn't prone to turnovers, but the offense could fall into long periods of inactivity.
Still, the Colts have enough weapons for him to be a feasible streamer for the next few weeks, particularly with a home matchup against Tampa Bay in Week 12.
Running Backs
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Frank Gore
While Andrew Luck's injury does cap Gore's touchdown opportunities more than we'd like, his volume should be consistently higher over the next few weeks.
Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski wanted to rely on Gore and the run game more before Luck was injured; now that Matt Hasselbeck is running the show, that sentiment should come into play even more. Gore hasn't been the most efficient back this season, but he's been very consistent, scoring six or more points (standard scoring) in every game since Week 3.
According to RotoViz's Buy Low Machine, the Colts have the league's most running back-friendly schedule during the fantasy football playoffs (Weeks 14-16), and Gore has the potential for huge games. At the very least, you know what you're going to get.
There is some concern for wear and tear with Gore since he's 32 years old and the season is long. But if it's any consolation, some of Gore's best performances last year came at the end of the season, as he rushed for over five yards per carry in three of the final four games of the season, including 158-yard and 144-yard games in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
Unless Gore goes down, Bradshaw shouldn't be rostered in most fantasy football leagues.
Brought in to be the third-down back, Bradshaw has averaged 26 snaps per game over the last four weeks, per Football Outsiders, but he averages just five touches per game.
Gore is the bell cow back, and while Bradshaw did score a touchdown last week, his opportunity count is simply too low to consider him as an asset.
Wide Receivers
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T.Y. Hilton
The definition of a WR2 this season, Hilton has gained at least 50 yards in all but two contests, matchups against elite cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Josh Norman. Unfortunately, Hilton hasn't been able to find the end zone in most games, and only has one 100-yard receiving game with Luck and the passing game struggling.
With Hasselbeck taking the snaps, it seems unlikely that Hilton will suddenly find his big-game magic.
He is still the No. 1 receiver, however, and will likely get more yards-after-the-catch opportunities with Chudzinski in place as offensive coordinator. Consider him a low-floor, low-ceiling WR2 down the stretch, at least until Luck gets back.
Donte Moncrief
While Hilton has been the consistent one in the Colts offense, Moncrief has been the exact opposite. Though he's only gained over 50 yards in three games this year, the second-year receiver out of Ole Miss has found the end zone five times, leading the Colts in touchdown receptions.
But his production has really slid as of late.
Moncrief blew up to start the season, averaging 11 points per game (standard scoring) in the first four weeks. But as defenses began to realize that he was the No. 2 receiver in Indianapolis instead of Andre Johnson, they adjusted accordingly.
Disappointing down the field, Moncrief's work has mostly come on out-breaking routes in the short and intermediate areas of the field. He's arguably the team's best red-zone threat, but his volume on the rest of the field will likely remain inconsistent.
While he does have a rapport with Hasselbeck, having ran on the second team with him throughout last year, Moncrief had a 75-yard and three-yard outing with the veteran at quarterback earlier this year, another indication of the young wideout's volatility.
Andre Johnson
It's no coincidence that Johnson's production has boosted while Moncrief's has slipped recently. After averaging a single point per game over the first four weeks, Johnson has averaged eight points per game in the last five weeks.
Of course, that was boosted by two big games, one in particular against his old team in Houston.
Johnson simply can't get separation at this point in his career, but his inconsistencies at the catch point have been the real killer this season. Johnson may get more involved in the short passing game with Chudzinski changing things up, but don't bet on it.
Griff Whalen
Week 9 made it official: Griff Whalen took over for Andre Johnson in passing situations. While Johnson still played a large number of snaps, particularly as a run-blocker, Whalen played 24 snaps in the Colts' three-wide receiver sets while Johnson played just 11, per Louie Benjamin of Pro Football Focus. Whalen also ran three more routes overall, per Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus.
Now, this doesn't make Whalen a viable fantasy football asset, of course.
It still seems more likely that Johnson receives more snaps down the stretch, especially if Chudzinski alters the offense to fit Hasselbeck a bit more. Phillip Dorsett, who was the No. 4 receiver prior to an ankle fracture, is still returning as well.
When on the field, Whalen is a lot more helpful in real life than in fantasy, making a living with short and intermediate chain-moving catches rather than big plays and touchdowns. Unless another receiver in Indianapolis goes down, Whalen is likely not worth rostering, even in deep dynasty leagues.
Phillip Dorsett
The Colts' rookie receiver is a dark horse for dynasty leagues, where he may be available for discounted prices at the moment. Dorsett hasn't played since Week 7, and the volume was never there for the first-year wideout.
Still, Dorsett was showing the best separation ability of any receiver on the roster when he did get on the field, and Johnson's continued decline could result in more snaps for Dorsett in three- and four-receiver sets later in the year.
As he returns later in the year, keep an eye on how he integrates with the offense. If the downfield chemistry improves, he may become a sneaky dynasty pickup.
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Tight Ends
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The Colts tight ends have a great opportunity in the second half of the season, but who will take advantage of it?
According to RotoViz's Buy Low Machine, the Colts have the fourth-most advantageous schedule for tight ends from Weeks 11-16. Combine that with the continued transition into Chudzinski's tight end-friendly offense, and you have potential for great value from guys like Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
The problem will be trusting either one of them to start.
Fleener has been the more consistent receiving threat, as Allen has been the victim of a few horrific throws from Andrew Luck and has been unable to stay on the field with the team going to spread offenses when behind big. But Fleener hasn't broken the 50-yard mark since Week 4.
With Chudzinski's offense depending on tight ends to block, Allen could see an uptick in snaps and receiving opportunities, but it's a complete mystery at this point.
We'll know much more as the Colts actually get some games in after the bye, but keep an eye on the team over the next few weeks to discern how the new offensive coordinator envisions his tight ends. If forced to roster any from this team, it should be Fleener right now, as Allen has produced multiple receptions in just two games.
Situational upside is there for this tight end group, but that's about it.
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