Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) surprisingly share the same record heading into Sunday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field. While the Eagles have been a major disappointment so far this season following a 20-19 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week as 5.5-point home favorites, they still find themselves only a half-game back of the NFC East-leading New York Giants.

Point spread: The Eagles opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.9-21.6 Eagles

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers have really thrived as road underdogs in November, going 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games during the month under that scenario. One of those covers was a 23-20 road victory against the Atlanta Falcons as eight-point underdogs three weeks ago. They are also 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston coming of age and making big plays in key situations.

Last week in a 10-6 home win over the Dallas Cowboys, Winston scored the game-winning touchdown on a bootleg play near the goal line in the final minute. That rushing touchdown helped him overcome two interceptions, bringing his season total to nine. Tampa Bay had lost the three other games in which he threw at least one pick.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philadelphia is 6-2 straight up and ATS in its last eight games after losing as a favorite, and last week’s setback at home to Miami was a tough one considering the team led 16-3 at halftime. The Eagles can play a lot better than that offensively and may need to depend on backup quarterback Mark Sanchez to get the job done if starter Sam Bradford cannot go after he was knocked out of that game with a concussion.

While Sanchez failed to lead the team to a victory against the Dolphins, he has shown the ability to rally his teammates with his leadership and experience in the past. Last season, he played in nine games for Philly and completed a career-high 64 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He may be able to give the offense the spark it needs and has been missing with Bradford under center this year.

Smart pick

The Eagles are the superior team in this matchup and have a real shot to win the division despite dropping two of three. They simply cannot afford to lose this one, though, and will look to make a serious statement here much like a fellow NFC East team did last week versus another NFC South foe, as the Washington Redskins routed the New Orleans Saints 47-14 at home. Look for Philly to win and cover in similar fashion.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Eagles.

The Eagles are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games after losing as favorite.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.