7-Step Drop: Barring a Miracle, Pac-12 Can Kiss the Playoff Goodbye
If we can learn anything from Ohio State’s magical run to the national title last season, it’s that we shouldn’t quite write anybody off until the regular season ends and those semifinal matchups are announced.
But as we transition to Week 12, it might be about time to bid adieu to the Pac-12’s already slim chances of getting a team into the Final Four in 2015. After a wild and tumultuous Week 11 out West, it looks like the Pac-12 will find itself out of the College Football Playoff just a season removed from sending a team to the inaugural title game.
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The primary culprit is once again the tense Oregon-Stanford rivalry. Over the past several years, dating back to the days of Jim Harbaugh and Chip Kelly, these two teams have been locked in a close series that has seen one side end national and league title hopes for the other numerous times.
Now we can add 2015 to the ledger in favor of the Ducks.
Vernon Adams Jr.’s return to the lineup has continued to pay dividends and has made Oregon a legitimate Top 25 team, with the offense once again humming, as we’ve all been accustomed to. Maybe just as impressive Saturday was the defense, which contained Stanford Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey better than most have (33 carries for 147 yards) and grabbed three turnovers from a normally protective offense.
Then there was the great play to essentially prevent overtime by linebacker Joe Walker, who knocked the ball away from Austin Hooper. While it took a valiant effort by the Cardinal to storm back in the fourth quarter, one can’t help but think they had this one slip through their fingers, first with early defensive miscues and then later by botching a pair of snaps.
Looking at the rest of the college football landscape, even before Tuesday's committee rankings come out, it appears the team’s hopes of making the playoff were altered to Rose Bowl or bust.
The same could also be said for Utah, which fell in double overtime to an Arizona team beset by injuries and hoping to just make it to a bowl game. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon was injured again, and backup Jerrard Randall needed just one completion, the final one, to topple a Top 10 opponent at home once again under Rich Rodriguez.
The end result is the Utes don’t even control their own fate inside the rough Pac-12 South and will need help just to make it to Santa Clara for the title game—something that looked like a lock two weeks ago.
Fans elsewhere may take the double whammy of losses to the two contenders as a chance to lambaste the Pac-12’s overall strength. That would be a mistake.
Yes, there is no elite team in the conference this season. That doesn’t mean it’s weak. Ten out of the 12 teams may eventually wind up in a bowl game this year, and fears of teams in the the league beating each other up have proved well-founded.
Put simply, the Pac-12 makes life harder on itself than other leagues, with nine conference games, a title game and a general preference for playing a decent nonconference slate. That’s the toughest road to the playoff, period. It’s also a road of its own making.
Yes, the tough strength of schedule is an oft-brought-up source of pride among conference officials. But that same pride can lead to the league’s downfall when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
It didn’t trip up last year's Oregon Ducks, an elite team with a special leader in Marcus Mariota. But with a robust middle class, no conference bully atop the standings and only fringe Heisman candidates, this wasn’t the season where everything could line up to put another team into the Final Four.
There’s an outside chance Stanford could still be alive with convincing wins over Cal, Notre Dame and Utah to end the year and a little chaos elsewhere, but the chances of that happening seem remote for now.
Whatever slim chance the league has at the playoff likely rests on Baylor winning the Big 12 and going head-to-head with a two-loss Stanford, which could present the case to the committee that it scheduled like a true contender and won a tough league.
But again, that probably won't happen.
And that’s also OK. The Pac-12 had a great season last year, and the league is a good one this year. There should be no existential crisis like there was when the Big 12 was left out. There shouldn’t be any whining from Pac-12 fans. Just rebuild, regroup and move on.
Of course, in a twist of fate, the Pac-12 faltering this season when it comes to the playoff and getting left out of the Final Four likely opens door for the league passed over last year.
The Big 12, whether it be Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, is likely the biggest beneficiary of the chaos out West. Ex-Stanford athletic director and current Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby can likely breathe a small sigh of relief thanks to his former school.
The season is not lost for the Pac-12 in these final few weeks. Stanford can play Final Four spoiler for Notre Dame (and solve a potential headache for the committee in the process). Utah and others are still vying to get to Pasadena on January 1, too. Placing two teams in the New Year’s Six is a big financial carrot dangling out there as well.
The Pac-12 will still be involved in the postseason race, but maybe not as the league had once hoped. That’s OK. Sometimes that’s just how things break in a sport like college football.
The best part is, there’s always next season.
Stats of the Week
- Congrats to Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who rushed for 137 yards and four touchdowns, the first of which helped him surpass former Wisconsin running back Montee Ball as the FBS career leader in rushing touchdowns.
- Wake Forest’s Alex Kinal also broke an FBS record with his 323rd career punt against Notre Dame Saturday. Talk about two different levels of success to break those two records.
- Washington State’s Luke Falk threw two touchdown passes, setting a Cougars single-season record with 35.
- Iowa is 10-0 for the first time in school history, and quarterback C.J. Beathard is still undefeated (11-0) as the Hawkeyes starting quarterback.
- Missouri’s offense has not been great recently, but this note from St. Louis Post-Dispatch beat man Dave Matter indicated something incredible in the Tigers' game against BYU: "Missouri's 14 first-half first downs are more than it had in the entire game vs. Florida, Georgia & Vanderbilt."
- Per the TCU's official website, "KaVontae Turpin’s 49-yard punt return extended TCU’s nation's-best streak to 23 games with a first-quarter touchdown. That’s a Big 12 record and the nation’s second-longest streak since 1996."
- With a victory over Illinois, Ohio State has now won 30 conference games in a row, breaking the old record mark of 29 consecutive conference wins in the ACC by Florida State from 1992-95.
- Per ESPN Stats & Info, "No. 24 Houston is first team this season to win after trailing by 20 points in the 4th quarter (teams were 0-261 entering today)."
Quote of the Week
"When you come to play Arkansas, I want you know that you're in a street fight. It's not going to come easy. We're going to play, and we're going to play longer than a lot of people want to play.” - Bret Bielema after beating LSU.
Tweet of the Week
Play of the Week
LSU may have lost to Arkansas, but the Tigers executed this tip-drill to perfection:
Sound from Saturday
Pre-Snap Reads
TCU at Oklahoma
The Horned Frogs are beat up and looked downright embarrassed last week at Oklahoma State, where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Things won’t improve much with a trip to Norman, where the Sooners are playing as well as anybody in the country. I’m not betting against a confident Bob Stoops right now, but this will be closer than some expect.
Baylor at Oklahoma State
Since dual-threat quarterback Jarrett Stidham has taken over the offense, the Bears just haven’t been clicking like they once were. Part of that is because the strength of schedule is jumping up noticeably, but it’s also because of the Bears, too. I’m still not 100 percent sold on Oklahoma State, but at home and playing like they have been, the Cowboys should get a slight edge.
Michigan State at Ohio State
Will we see Ohio State finally live up to its potential? With Michigan State in town and all the lights on Columbus, we will. Big time. Not much needs to be said after that.
Bryan Fischer is a national football columnist at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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