Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: What's the Game Plan for Tampa Bay?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to double their win total from the 2014 season on Sunday, as they welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Raymond James Stadium.
The Bucs sit at 3-5 on the year, having alternated wins and losses since Week 4. The Cowboys have been reeling since losing quarterback Tony Romo to injury in Week 2, losing all six of their games since.
Tampa Bay will be looking for just its second home win under head coach Lovie Smith, as rookie quarterback Jameis Winston hopes to continue his streak of turnover-free performances behind a strong running game.
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On defense, the Bucs will be looking for a bounce-back game after failing to clamp down in the red zone last week in a 32-18 home loss to the New York Giants.
What do the Bucs need to do on both sides of the ball to get a win this week? Let’s take a look.
Offensive Game Plan
Slowly but surely, the Tampa Bay offense is starting to pick up steam, developing an identity thanks to an effective ground game and a young quarterback who can make big plays and take care of the football at the same time.
Not only is Winston riding a four-game streak without a single turnover, he’s constantly moving the chains and engineering sustained drives, keeping his defense fresh and opposing offenses off the field. So far this season, the Bucs have the fewest three-and-outs of any team in the NFL, having failed to move the chains just 10 times out of 91 offensive possessions, per Buccaneers.com.
Doug Martin and Charles Sims have provided a strong one-two punch for the Bucs on the ground, spearheading the league’s seventh-ranked rushing offense at just under 132 yards per game.
The unsung heroes of Tampa Bay’s offensive improvement are found in the trenches, where a work-in-progress offensive line has quietly overachieved despite breaking in two rookies starters from day one. With injuries forcing veteran backups like Joe Hawley and Gosder Cherilus into starting roles, as well, it’s been impressive to watch the Bucs get the job done up front, both in pass protection and on the ground.
The Cowboys haven’t been the staunchest defenders against the run, allowing 111 yards per game on the ground. The nine rushing touchdowns they’ve given up are tied for the third-highest mark in the league.
Dallas ranks 21st in the NFL in pass defense, giving up just over 240 yards per game. But the Cowboys have been one of the league’s best at preventing touchdowns through the air, giving up only nine touchdown passes so far this season, tied for the fourth-lowest total in the league.
To be successful on Sunday, the Bucs simply need to dance with the script that has brought them this far on offense: a healthy dose of Martin and Sims, along with ball security and timely, chain-moving throws from Winston when needed.
Defensive Game Plan
Thanks to multiple injuries, Tampa Bay’s mission on defense seems to get more difficult by the week.
Jacquies Smith will miss his second straight game with an ankle injury, while Gerald McCoy has been going through a four-game slump, thanks in large part to a nagging shoulder issue. These two injuries played a huge part in Tampa Bay’s ineffectiveness on defense last week, as the team’s pass rush was completely nonexistent, failing to register a single sack all game.
Tampa Bay’s safeties have been banged up all week, with three of them showing up on the injury report. No matter who ends up starting on the back end for the Bucs this week, it’s a good bet they won’t be at 100 percent.
Tampa Bay’s issues at cornerback and linebacker have had more to do with inconsistency than health. There have been some solid plays from the linebacking crew, but just as many head-scratching mental errors, missed tackles and breakdowns in coverage. At corner, the Bucs were so unimpressed with their play, they waived veteran Tim Jennings and demoted starters Johnthan Banks and Mike Jenkins, replacing them with Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah last week.
That combo seemed to actually give the Bucs improved play at the corner spots last week, with Alterraun Verner also making some plays from the slot.
The mission is clear for the Bucs on defense this week: to stop the run and force Matt Cassel to win the game with his arm.
Cassel threw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception in last week’s overtime loss against the Philadelphia Eagles, but his previous two starts in relief of Romo were far less inspiring. He threw three picks in a Week 7 loss to the Giants, then managed just 97 yards through the air the following week in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
The ground game is where Dallas excels, ranking eighth in the NFL by averaging 128 rushing yards per game. Darren McFadden has become the team’s workhorse back, carrying the ball at least 20 times in each of the last three games and averaging 111 yards rushing over that stretch.
McFadden’s success is due in large part to the destructive blockers in front of him, as the Cowboys own one of the league’s best offensive line units.
If the Bucs want to come away winners on Sunday, they’ll have to get some serious overachievement from their thin, banged-up front four, along with some splash plays and takeaways from the back seven.
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Dez Bryant and Jason Witten vs. Bucs Secondary
Last week, the Bucs did a solid job of keeping Odell Beckham Jr. in front of them, allowing him a handful of catches and just over 100 yards, but not letting him take the top off with any huge plays down the field.
Tampa Bay will have to do the same thing this week with Bryant, as well as keeping close watch on Witten, who will be hoping to gash the Tampa 2 up the seams, where it is most vulnerable. The Bucs have the athletes at linebacker to hang with Witten, but the banged-up, struggling secondary will have their hands full with Bryant.
Bucs Defensive line vs. Cowboys Offensive Line
It’s no secret that Dallas’ strength lies in the ground game, led by arguably the most dominant run-blocking offensive line in the entire league.
Cassel is the weakest link in the Dallas offense, but it won’t matter if they’re able to keep moving the chains with the running game. Tampa Bay will have to do enough up front to hold McFadden in check and force Cassel to beat them through the air.
Prediction
The Bucs seem to show improvement in at least one facet each week, keeping games close and falling just a few plays short when they can’t close out a win.
On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys haven’t tasted victory since Week 2, and the return of Bryant hasn’t been enough to get them in the win column.
Jameis Winston has the Tampa Bay offense moving in the right direction, despite working with a skeleton crew of pass-catchers. But the Bucs will have their hands full in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and this game will come down to whether or not they can contain the Dallas running game while finding enough room for Martin and Sims to keep the focus in the box.
If Tampa Bay can do enough on the ground to keep the Cowboys honest in the back seven, along with a game plan that gets the ball out of Winston’s hands quickly, they should be able to move the ball consistently and continue to sustain drives. The best way to keep the Cowboys from scoring is to keep their offense on the bench, but the Bucs simply must turn those drives into touchdowns rather than field goals to come away with a win.
I think the Bucs turn a corner this week against a Cowboys team struggling to find their mojo without their star quarterback. Look for the defense to bend but not break, and for Winston to do just enough to give the Bucs the slim win at home.
Final Prediction: Bucs 27, Cowboys 24
*All stats courtesy of NFL.com
Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He is also a senior NFL draft analyst for Draft Breakdown. Follow him on Twitter @Luke Easterling.
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