Big 12 Football: Bowl Projections for Every Team
You like bowl projections? Bleacher Report colleague Bryan Fischer has you covered on a national scale. For the Big 12, however, it's time to take a closer look at how the postseason pecking order will shake out.
The tough November slate featuring Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU has already produced one eye-opening result, which means more surprises are on the way. As such, the following bowl projections could be entirely different this time next week.
The additional thing to remember is bowl selection beyond the playoff and New Year's Six slot does not have to mirror final conference standings; it only determines the order in which the games select their conference representatives.
With that in mind, here are the Big 12's bowl predictions after 10 weeks in order of selection. Note that in our projections we do not include the Heart of Dallas Bowl for non-qualifier reasons.
Oklahoma State
1 of 8
Prediction: College Football Playoff semifinal
Baylor head coach Art Briles is confident an undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champion should make the playoff. There's no doubt the Big 12's playoff contenders have a season's worth of tough games in November, but it's still too early to know how the selection committee will view the possibility of a one-loss Big 12 champ.
That said, Oklahoma State showed it has a real possibility of going unbeaten. The 49-29 win over TCU was as impressive as any win in college football this year. It could seem as if Daniel Powter's "Bad Day" was written specifically for the Frogs, but it's impossible to ignore the role the Cowboys played in that.
Head coach Mike Gundy is making a two-quarterback system work—a difficult balance to strike, to say the least—with Mason Rudolph and J.W. Walsh. The defense is physical and excellent at taking the ball away.
Speaking of which, Oklahoma State has more takeaways than anyone in the Big 12. Its turnover margin is right there with Baylor atop the conference. In 2013 and '11, the two years in which the Pokes won at least 10 games, they led the Big 12 in takeaways.
Oklahoma State also gets Baylor and Oklahoma at home. Things are setting up nicely.
Baylor
2 of 8
Prediction: Sugar Bowl
Baylor's offense didn't skip a beat last Thursday against Kansas State with true freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham. In his first start for the injured Seth Russell, Stidham threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns. The Wildcats don't have the stiffest pass defense, so while it was a solid debut, it's wise to see how Stidham does against more physical defenses such as Oklahoma State.
Rather, the liability is Baylor's defense.
The Bears have been able to get away with allowing 20 or more points regularly because their offense is so potent. But we saw a glimpse of what could happen once the offense isn't clicking. Baylor gave up 258 rushing yards to Kansas State at 5.4 yards per carry and allowed the Wildcats to score two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make things close.
An experienced Big 12 assistant coach told Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans of Sports Illustrated:
"They haven't played anyone. I don't know if they're as good as they were last year. Their secondary is very average. Their field corner (Ryan Reid) is very average, their safeties are not great in space and their linebackers are very average. I'm not trying to say they are bad, but against a Top 5-tier team, that's where they'll struggle.
"
The test for Baylor begins in earnest, and the schedule immediately goes from one of the easiest in college football to one of the hardest. The Bears host Oklahoma on Saturday, travel to Oklahoma State on Nov. 21 and then have a short week to travel to TCU on Nov. 27.
That's tough for any team, and with TCU losing last Saturday, the grind known as November in the Big 12 is already taking its toll.
Oklahoma
3 of 8
Prediction: Alamo Bowl
Last week, I stated the case for Oklahoma as a playoff contender. Despite a bad loss to Texas, the Sooners are one of the most complete teams in the Big 12, statistically speaking.
But there's one noteworthy factor that needs to be discussed as well: In order for Oklahoma to run the table in November, it needs to solve its Baylor problem. Lo and behold, the Sooners travel to Waco (with College GameDay riding shotgun) on Saturday.
"We owe them one for the last two years," Oklahoma center Ty Darlington said, per Jason Kersey of the Oklahoman.
In their last two meetings, Baylor has outscored Oklahoma 89-26 and averaged 501.5 yards of offense per game. To give further context, Oklahoma needed a record-setting day from quarterback Baker Mayfield to beat Tulsa 56-31. That would be the same Tulsa coached by former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery. Sure enough, the Golden Hurricane racked up 603 yards of offense against the Sooners.
The point being, Oklahoma's kryptonite is this Baylor offense. If the Sooners can overcome that, it'll tell us a lot about them moving forward.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
TCU
4 of 8
Prediction: Russell Athletic Bowl
Social media extraordinaire Matt Repchak and the fine folks at the Russell Athletic Bowl will take good care of TCU if the Horned Frogs find themselves shuffled back a bit in the bowl pecking order.
TCU has been living dangerously at times, and it caught up in the worst way possible against Oklahoma State. This team is completely different on the road—and not for the better. The defense has played about as well as it could with all the injuries, but it got torched by the Cowboys—and Oklahoma State isn't the best offensive team TCU will face this year.
Quarterback Trevone Boykin should bounce back from his four-interception performance. That was a bad day more than anything else. However, the wrist injury to leading receiver Josh Doctson would be a huge blow if he's out for an extended period of time (his status is unclear). As Brandon Chatmon of ESPN.com wrote, the Frogs don't have a standout receiver who can match what Doctson brought to the offense.
It's felt as though TCU has been kicking into the wind, so to speak, for much of the season. Now, as banged up as ever, the Frogs are playing in their toughest stretch.
Texas Tech
5 of 8
Prediction: Texas Bowl
Texas Tech's season is highlighted by a road win against Arkansas. That tells you everything you need to know. The Red Raiders have won games against lower-tier Big 12 teams and lost to the conference's Big Four.
It's been all offense and almost no defense, too. Tech is scoring just three points more on offense than it's allowing on defense (45.2 to 42.2). Quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains second in the conference with 392.7 yards of offense per game.
If nothing else, Tech is exciting to watch. It's also worn down and a bye week isn't coming until after this weekend. The Red Raiders need only one more win to become bowl-eligible, and it can find one between Kansas State and Texas, two teams with their own struggles.
Kansas State
6 of 8
Prediction: Liberty Bowl
It's been a tough season for Kansas State, possibly on track to be the worst since 2008 if the Fightin' Bill Snydercats can't get to a bowl game. There's also a report from Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports that Snyder may retire at the end of the year (h/t Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer).
However, if there's one thing we should know about K-State by now, it's never count out Snyder. This team can still turn things around. Given the Wildcats are in the Big 12's bowl projections, the assumption is they will.
There are a couple of reasons to believe this. First, with the exception of a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma, K-State has been in a position to win all its Big 12 conference games. The concern isn't whether this team is capable of winning—it's whether it is too emotionally drained to do so.
However, the schedule eases up some with games against Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia. Even though K-State is banged up, especially on defense, the tendency is for Snyder's teams to get better as the year goes along.
West Virginia
7 of 8
Prediction: Cactus Bowl
West Virginia beat Texas Tech 31-26 with an outstanding ground game and defense, proving the Mountaineers were always a better fit for the Big Ten conference.
Kidding aside, West Virginia is out of the month from hell, better known by most of us as October, and the future looks brighter. The Mountaineers should be able to find at least two more wins in the remaining schedule against Texas, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State.
The running game is one of the best in the Big 12, but the 'Eers offense simply isn't that explosive, which isn't what you'd expect from a Dana Holgorsen-led team. There are legitimate long-term questions as to whether Holgorsen can find and develop his next great quarterback at West Virginia, but in the meantime, he is playing to the team's strengths.
So long as he does that, West Virginia should be bowl-bound.
Outside Looking in
8 of 8
Iowa State and Kansas are no-brainers here (sorry, Iowa State and Kansas). The wild card is Texas.
The Longhorns finally looked like they were turning a corner under second-year coach Charlie Strong when they stunned Oklahoma in the Red River Game. However, as the weeks go on, it appears that game was an anomaly of the "throw out the record books" variety.
Texas' chances of reaching the postseason would have gone up had it not been shut out 24-0 by the Cyclones two weeks ago. With three games left, the Horns have to find two wins to be 6-6. However, two of those games, against West Virginia and Baylor, are on the road. And, as David Ubben of Sports on Earth tweeted, Texas has lost three road games by a combined score of 112-10.
Who knows with this team.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
