Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Green Bay?
In a matchup of the NFC's top two teams, the Green Bay Packers will hit the road Sunday to take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 9.
Green Bay (6-1), fresh off its first loss of the season to Denver last week, will face the 7-0 Panthers in one of the week's most anticipated games.
If you thought it was odd to see the Packers play two undefeated teams in a row—well, you'd be right. As noted by Randall Liu, the NFL's director of NFC football communications, the Packers are competing in rarified air right now:
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"Packers will be 3rd team in @NFL history to play teams 6-0 or better in consecutive games (1934 DET & 2004 PIT) pic.twitter.com/yrn0N5NL0Y
— Randall Liu (@RLiuNFL) November 3, 2015"
Sunday afternoon's game will be just the 13th time Green Bay and Carolina face off. The Packers own an 8-4 advantage in the series including wins in three of the last four meetings.
Although in the midst of the gauntlet of their schedule, the division-leading Packers need a win this week to stay at least one game ahead of Minnesota in the NFC North.
The Week 9 showdown will not only pit two division leaders against each other, but it will also feature a pair of top-10 scoring offenses and defenses going head-to-head.
We'll get more in-depth with those numbers in a bit as we look ahead to the game plans the Packers could use on offense and defense against the Panthers this weekend.
Offensive Game Plan
We saw what happened last week when Aaron Rodgers and Co. went up against a top-notch defense—it wasn't pretty, to say the least—and things won't get much easier this week in Carolina.
The Panthers boast the league's 10th-best scoring defense (19.4 points allowed per game) and have given up the fifth-fewest passing yards all season (1,602). To go a step further, opposing quarterbacks have compiled an NFL-worst 64.5 passer rating while the defense's 12 interceptions rank third in the NFL.
When you consider how poorly the Packers' pass offense has been lately, the matchup looks even scarier. Rodgers is coming off one of his worst games ever—his 77 passing yards against Denver were a career low in games he started and finished—while his injury-riddled receiving corps has offered almost no help in getting open downfield.
ESPN's Rob Demovsky laid out the situation in Green Bay pretty clearly:
"The Packers’ passing game is predicated on receivers winning their one-on-one matchups and the belief that their guys are superior to the defenders covering them. With No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson out for the year, Adams having missed extended time with an ankle injury, Cobb and Jones playing through injuries earlier in the season and rookie Ty Montgomery hobbled by an ankle injury of his own, the Packers’ pass-catching talent hasn’t always had the clear-cut edge against opponents.
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Green Bay's struggles in the passing game stretch further than one week, though. The Packers are averaging just 210 passing yards per game this season—the sixth-lowest mark in the league—while Rodgers has managed just one 250-yard day through the air since his five-touchdown outburst in Week 3.
Still, it's hard to explain the shortcomings of a Rodgers-led offense that's been so efficient and productive in years past.
Sean Wagner-McGough of CBS Sports suggests Rodgers' low number of pass attempts has contributed to the Packers' lack of success through the air.
"Furthermore, Rodgers has only attempted 204 passes this season," Wagner-McGough wrote. "That's also 27th in the league. Last year, Rodgers averaged 32.5 passes per game. In 2013, he averaged 32.2. In 2012, he averaged 34.5. This year, he's averaging 29.1."
It would be a valid excuse for any offense with poor passing numbers to lay the blame on a strong ground game. However, the Packers don't fall in this category either—their backfield combination of Eddie Lacy and James Starks has been inconsistent week to week.
On that note, it might be smart for Green Bay to dedicate to the run by alternating its running backs. Carolina's given up 113.7 rushing yards per game this year—20th in the NFL—yet has only allowed one opposing tailback to have a 100-yard day (Tampa Bay's Doug Martin). More often than not, opponents have opted to attack with more than one rusher to grind out yards against Carolina.
It'll be a tall task for the Packers to win through the air Sunday—but with Rodgers under center, would Green Bay fans want anything else?
Defensive Game Plan
The Panthers wouldn't be undefeated and one of the league's best teams if it weren't for their dominant run game.
Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton make up one of the best duos on the ground and one that keeps defenses guessing as soon as the ball is snapped. With Newton's athletic build, the Panthers have smartly featured his dual-threat ability this season with a variety of zone reads, options and designed quarterback runs.
Don't be surprised if we see a regular dose of Newton and Stewart on Sunday as Carolina runs the ball a league-high 50.6 percent of the time en route to leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.0).
It's the team's bread and butter as long as its starting running back and quarterback are healthy, and it has been the main ingredient to a 7-0 start.
So, all Green Bay and its 25th-ranked run defense have to do is stop what they know is coming.
That, and cover Greg Olsen, of course. We'll touch some more on Olsen below, but if Newton isn't handing the ball off to Stewart or running it himself, Olsen is his go-to target in the receiving game.
Either way, the Packers are in for a tough matchup Sunday when Carolina's on offense.
Players and Matchups to Watch
Packers OLB Julius Peppers
With such a dominant opponent looming ahead of them, the Packers will need Julius Peppers and the rest of their defensive playmakers to do just that—make enough plays in the backfield to slow down Newton, Stewart and a high-powered Carolina rushing attack.
Peppers, though, will have the spotlight on him for another reason. Sunday's game is just his second in Carolina as a member of a different team and will be his first since 2010—his first season after leaving the Panthers in free agency the previous offseason.
So there's an emotional angle to Peppers' play—but what about the competitive edge the Packers' star outside linebacker has put on full display to start this season?
Through the first seven games, the 35-year-old Peppers has a team-high 5.5 sacks and is on pace to rack up 12.5 on the year. He hasn't reached that number since he left Carolina.
Panthers TE Greg Olsen
If the Panthers aren't running the ball, Newton is likely looking his tight end's way in the passing game.
Olsen is far and away Newton's go-to receiver. He's one of only four tight ends in the NFL who lead their teams in receptions, targets and receiving yards. Dallas' Jason Witten, Buffalo's Charles Clay and Seattle's Jimmy Graham are the others.
Olsen's gap over his fellow receivers is more profound, though. Ted Ginn, the next-closest Carolina pass-catcher, is about two games' worth of stats behind Olsen in all the major categories—13 catches, 16 targets and 175 receiving yards.
After they're done trying to stop the two-headed rushing monster of Newton and Stewart, the Packers must find a way to cover Olsen down the field. Unfortunately, covering tight ends is something they struggled mightily with against San Diego and Denver the last two games.
Packers Receivers vs. Panthers Secondary
We mentioned earlier how good Carolina's pass defense is this season—allowing very few yards through the air while picking off opposing quarterbacks nearly twice a game. The unit features a dominant secondary that lives off turnovers—especially the interception type.
The defensive backs are headlined by cornerbacks Josh Norman, who's second in the NFL in both picks (four) and passes defended (12), and Charles Tillman, a 13-year veteran who knows Green Bay and Rodgers all too well from his days in Chicago.
It'll be interesting to see which receivers, and conversely which cornerbacks, Rodgers looks to target more on Sunday. Either way, we could potentially see some big matchups in this department.
Randall Cobb will likely be covered by Norman. The fourth-year player is Carolina's best coverage corner and has been assigned opposing No. 1 wideouts all year. Then there's Tillman on James Jones—two veterans going at it like old times.
Get your popcorn ready!
Game Prediction
For the second straight week, the Packers take on an undefeated team on the road, and for the second straight week, they'll be doing so as Vegas favorites, according to Odds Shark.
Win or lose, it's hard to slow down Carolina's rushing attack—let alone stop it. Green Bay will have to find a way to do either one to give Rodgers and Co. a chance to pull out a close victory.
The issue with this tactic implies Rodgers and his receivers will be able to find any space down the field to open up an effective running game of their own. This is where the Packers may struggle the most.
If Green Bay allows the Panthers to take an early lead—or hold one late into the second half—it will make the offense predictable. Rodgers will have to go to the air to win the game and could get picked off by Norman, Tillman or anyone else from a dangerous Carolina secondary.
On the other hand, if the Packers gain an edge on the scoreboard, they can dedicate to the run and give Eddie Lacy some confidence running against a porous Panthers run D.
That's the best-case scenario, and it still may not be enough to beat the 7-0 Panthers at their home field.
Final Prediction: Panthers 23, Packers 20
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