Previewing the Upcoming Crazy College Football Coaching Carousel
There were 15 head coaching changes among FBS schools last offseason, and it’s entirely possible we blow by that number before Thanksgiving this season. There are already 10 openings across college football right now, a number that nearly matches the amount of openings from a decade ago.
While there’s little doubt that the win-now mentality and increase in money in college athletics has contributed to a more unstable job market, this season could bring an unprecedented level of turnover to the coaching carousel.
As one administrator pointed out to Bleacher Report recently, it doesn’t help things when you normally have, at most, one head coach retirement during the offseason and we’re already up to four before the calendar had turned to November. Throw in two midseason firings a level above in the NFL and the number of open jobs is anybody’s guess at this point, but it continues to move higher and higher with each passing week.
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Agents, athletic directors, search firms and even head coaches are already bracing for a wild and crazy 10-plus weeks of rumors, contract discussions and even more openings. Here’s a bit of a look ahead at what could happen in college football.
ACC
Open: Virginia Tech, Miami
South Carolina will provide plenty of competition for a number of the ACC openings and will likely be able to pay as much as a million dollars more than others. That said, the two current openings in Miami and Blacksburg are very attractive to coaches and will draw plenty of interest.
Alabama assistant Mario Cristobal is the odds-on favorite to land in South Florida and may be an option at UCF if the Hurricanes pass on him. Virginia Tech is cited by many industry sources as the top non-USC job right now due to a combination of salary, facilities, fanbase, recruiting and the fact that athletic director Whit Babcock is well respected.
Likely open: Syracuse, Virginia
The Orange are very likely to finish 3-9 for the second straight season, and that doesn’t bode well for Scott Shafer with a new athletic director taking over earlier this year. The best case for keeping him might be the number of openings in the same part of the country, but it might not matter. As for the Cavaliers, the only question is when, not if, Mike London is let go.
Dominoes that could fall: North Carolina
Larry Fedora took over in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, with the program under NCAA probation and faces the prospect of more uncertainty when it comes to the NCAA investigation into the school’s academic scandal going forward. He’s on the lower end of the pay scale in the ACC and could be a prime candidate to leverage a division title this season into a better job with more stability. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik will be mentioned a lot as well.
Big 12
Potentially open: Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas State
Beating Texas just might have saved Paul Rhoads' job. Iowa State’s early schedule was brutal (teams it lost to have a combined 35-5 record) and getting to a surprising five wins isn’t completely out of the question. A change still could be made at Iowa State but that’s less certain than before.
West Virginia could also make a move (it has a new athletic director) if Dana Holgorsen doesn’t get out of town for another job first. The Mountaineers are 3-4 right now, but finishing 8-4 is very possible. If that doesn’t happen, then things could get interesting.
Bill Snyder retirement watch will continue until he gives an answer as to what he wants to do. Former assistant Brent Venables (Clemson’s defensive coordinator) will get mentioned a lot if there’s an opening in Manhattan, Kansas.
Dominoes: Texas
After another humiliating loss, it almost makes too much sense for the Longhorns and Charlie Strong to part ways at this point and have him head to a job that fits much better (Miami). The Dallas Morning News reported there is no buyout if Strong wanted to leave (as opposed to getting fired), but it will be tough for him to leave a $5 million a year position unless he gets something similar from another place. Miami won’t be able to pay that but South Carolina possibly could.
Big Ten
Open: Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois
Fox Sports’ Bruce Feldman reports that Gophers interim head coach Tracy Claeys has a lot of support to get the job full time and that makes a lot of sense, especially because the school is in the middle of a search for an athletic director. Bill Cubit has done a solid job leading the Illini through adversity, and reaching a bowl game could keep him in the mix even as the school likely looks to tap another up-and-coming MAC head coach.
It remains to be seen what Maryland will do (no, not Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly nor Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien) but somebody like Bowling Green’s Dino Babers makes a lot of sense. The Terps also could do a lot worse than hiring Greg Schiano.
Potentially open: Rutgers, Indiana
The level of dysfunction at Rutgers means it’s unlikely Kyle Flood gets another season in charge, but where the school goes from there is anybody’s guess. As for Indiana, it could follow Purdue’s lead in avoiding an active market and keep Kevin Wilson.
Pac-12
Open: USC
The Cadillac of openings right now, USC is one of the top jobs in the country for a reason, and the recent success of the team’s young stars will only enhance that. Chip Kelly is a pipe dream, and other NFL head coaches are unlikely to actually be in the mix either. Interim coach Clay Helton has a very, very slim shot at the full-time gig and would need a win over UCLA if he wants any chance of keeping the big office at the McKay Center. There are a lot of talkative boosters in Los Angeles, but it’s still a bit murky who athletic director Pat Haden is really targeting.
Dominoes: Cal, Utah, UCLA, Arizona
Outside of the Trojans, the Pac-12 should be relatively stable. But there’s also lots of potential turnover that has nothing to do with firing coaches. Cal’s Sonny Dykes has a contract situation worth watching, and his success this season could make him a candidate elsewhere. Utah’s Kyle Whittingham won’t leave Salt Lake City, but he’ll be mentioned quite a bit for the USC opening. Jim Mora is very comfortable at UCLA but an NFL franchise could always make him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
As for Arizona, it’s an open secret in the industry that Rich Rodriguez has had an eye on going back East, and he’ll be a name that fits with what Virginia Tech and South Carolina are looking for. If he does leave, look for Wildcats AD Greg Byrne to quickly snap up Utah State’s Matt Wells.
SEC
Open: South Carolina
The Gamecocks are the second-best program in their own small state and the fourth- or fifth-best job in their division, but they still can offer a lot as an SEC program flush with cash, fans and facilities. AD Ray Tanner is a former coach himself so he knows what to look for, but this is his biggest move yet since being elevated to the top of the department. If they can’t lure an already-established head coach, don’t be surprised if some hot-name coordinator (such as Alabama’s Kirby Smart) winds up taking over for Steve Spurrier.
Potentially open: Georgia
It’s no secret that Georgia is dysfunctional right now, and that shows no signs of slowing down. Atlanta-based USA Today reporter Dan Wolken wrote that athletic director Greg McGarity wanted to fire Mark Richt last year but was overruled. That doesn’t bode well for the staff’s job security going forward.
A loss in any of the remaining regular-season games would probably be the final nail in the coffin for Richt, but the flip side for Bulldogs fans is Georgia would be the best job in the country to come open this year (yes, even over USC). There would be immense interest in such an opening, and that in turn could create a dozen other moves around the country.
Dominoes: Kentucky, Mississippi State
The early-season shine has come off Mark Stoops a bit but his name will still get tossed around for a few openings, and it’s always possible he leaves for a more football-centric school. Dan Mullen’s name comes up every offseason and while he could stay put once again, he does make a lot of sense at USC, Virginia Tech and Georgia if it came open.
Group of Five
Open: UCF, North Texas, Hawaii
Central Florida does not have an athletic director yet so that complicates the search a bit, but it remains the most attractive "Group of Five" opening in the country thanks to the level of support the program gets and its location. There may be more coaches interested in the Knights job than some Power Five programs according to one industry source. Hawaii sounds like a nice job in theory, but former coach June Jones is probably the odds-on favorite because the school won’t be able to afford any kind of top-level hire.
Potentially open: Idaho, Georgia State, New Mexico State
The bottom of the Sun Belt could see a lot of turnover for performance-based reasons.
Dominoes: Temple, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Utah State, Air Force, Georgia Southern
The up-and-coming coaches in the Group of Five like Memphis’ Justin Fuente and Houston’s Tom Herman will get mentioned for nearly every opening this year for good reason. Both would succeed just about anywhere they go, but Fuente will likely be looking for the right fit and can afford to be choosy. That means Virginia Tech is more likely than, say, a Miami.
As for Herman, he can be patient in pursuit of a bigger job, but a one-and-done season for the right opportunity shouldn’t be ruled out. If USC comes calling or Texas surprisingly opens up, then he could be firmly in the mix.
Outside of those two names, any number of successful Group of Five coaches are primed to move up to a bigger program, hence the long list of dominoes that could fall this year. That's also not even counting some coaches sitting out (Brady Hoke, Butch Davis and even CBS commentators Rick Neuheisel and Houston Nutt), who could get in the mix somewhere too.
It’s going to be a crazy final few months on the field, and that’s not even getting to what can happen off it. Buckle up, folks, we’re in for one wild ride.
Bryan Fischer is a national college football columnist for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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