The Current Undefeated Team Most Likely to Not Make the College Football Playoff

Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first Top 25 poll of 2015. That's when the real debate will begin.  

The committee's rationale, as explained by chairman Jeff Long, will be especially interesting because there's no explicit formula like there was with the BCS. It's hard to gauge how (or how consistently) the committee will gauge factors like strength of schedule versus the so-called "eye test." As such, it's difficult to say for sure which teams have the inside track. 

The closest thing to guaranteed entrance into the field of four, at least for Power Five schools, is to finish the season undefeated. But which of the remaining unbeaten teams is most likely to lose?

The short answer is that Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are the most at-risk. Of the trio, Baylor has the best chance to stumble, which is ironic given that the Bears have looked the best of any Big 12 team so far. That's not to say Baylor will lose, but it certainly faces the biggest hurdles to keep winning. 

Before diving into why, it helps to know the overall landscape. There are 11 undefeated teams heading into Week 9: Baylor, Clemson, Houston, Iowa, LSU, Memphis, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, TCU and Toledo.

Game	Date
TCU at Oklahoma State	Nov. 7
Memphis at Houston	Nov. 14
Baylor at Oklahoma State	Nov. 21
Michigan State at Ohio State	Nov. 21
Baylor at TCU	Nov. 27
Iowa vs. Undefeated Big Ten East champion	Dec. 5

(Frankly, the chances of Houston or Toledo making the playoff are slim, even if both finish undefeated. The strength of schedules for the Cougars and Rockets are 124th and 116th, respectively, according to Sagarin.com. Neither has a signature out-of-conference win, either. That's not going to cut it.)

Through scheduling alone, seven of those undefeated teams are on a path to play another currently undefeated team six times in the regular season. That number increases to eight if Iowa goes through the regular season unbeaten and then faces either an unbeaten Ohio State or Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game. 

In other words, the math states that even in perfect conditions in which all other games are won, as many as five undefeated teams, including two Big 12 teams, could lose between now and the conference championship weekend.  

Baylor head coach Art Briles remains confident that an undefeated Big 12 team will make the playoff. Though the Big 12 lacks a conference championship game, he's probably not wrong: 

However, what are the odds that a Big 12 team actually makes it through the next five weekends unscathed? Baylor could be the least likely because its two toughest games—Oklahoma State and TCU—are on the road. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, gets all its toughest games at home. Additionally, Bears true freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham will be starting in place of the injured Seth Russell for the remainder of the year. 

There isn't one great team in college football this year, only ones that are more complete than others. And the Big 12's top three teams all have glaring concerns. As mentioned above, Baylor lost a player (Russell) who accounted for 35 touchdowns. TCU has been ravaged by injuries and is nowhere near the same team on the road as it has been at home. The Frogs outscore teams by nearly 39 points at home and only 10 points on the road. Oklahoma State has won three of its last five games by an average of four points and gave up 53 points to Texas Tech in Week 9.

"We’re not a great team,” Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy told ESPN.com's Max Olson, “but I have a lot of confidence in their willingness to come together.”   

Somewhat lost in the Big 12's November slate is Oklahoma, who could play ultimate spoiler. As Ryan Autullo of the Austin American-Statesman tweeted, the Big 12 could have had four undefeated teams facing off against one another if Oklahoma hadn't lost to Texas. 

And with each passing week, it appears the loss to the Longhorns is more of an anomaly rather than a trend.

Baylor has had Oklahoma's number in recent years, but the fact remains the Bears have to play three currently top-15 opponents as determined by both the Associated Press Top 25 and USA Today coaches poll in 13 days. 

That's a tough stretch for anyone in college football, no matter how good or healthy a team may be. 

The schedules for other playoff contenders could boil down to one game. For Michigan State and Ohio State, the Nov. 21 meeting in Columbus is still paramount despite the sudden rise of Michigan. For Iowa, it could be the Big Ten Championship game. LSU and Memphis have tough remaining stretches, but they're also current clubhouse leaders in their respective conferences. If LSU is able to run over Alabama, there might not be anything it can't do. 

Team	SOS Ranking	Top Remaining Opponent(s)
Clemson	28th	Florida State
LSU	37th	Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Michigan State	59th	Ohio State
Ohio State	68th	Michigan State, Michigan
TCU	53rd	Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor
Baylor	104th	Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
Iowa	47th	Minnesota
Memphis	64th	Navy, Houston, Temple
Oklahoma State	70th	TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Houston	124th	Memphis, Navy
Toledo	116th	Bowling Green

In the Big 12, any one of three undefeated teams has a chance to win the conference. Oklahoma is still in the race, too. No other Power Five conference has that same potential of cannibalizing itself out of the playoff. 

If Baylor does indeed drop a game in that stretch, the lack of a signature non-conference win and 13th game could once again shut the Bears out of the playoff. That would be a shame, considering this is likely Briles' best team ever in Waco. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.