Redskins vs. Patriots: Full New England Game Preview

Approaching the halfway point of the season, the New England Patriots have created some separation between themselves and the rest of the NFL. Though the Pats are one of four unbeaten teams at 7-0, both mainstream and analytics-based polls have reached the consensus that the league's best team resides in Foxborough.

Of course, the Lombardi Trophy isn't awarded in November. While the 16-0 talk surrounding the Pats continues to pick up, this team might not want to replicate the form of the 2007 team that accomplished that undefeated regular season. After all, that rendition of the Patriots peaked right around this time of year, before slowly but perceptibly fading down the stretch until they finally cracked in February.

Sunday's Week 9 contest against the woebegone Washington Redskins won't necessarily tell us if the 2015 Patriots will follow that same pattern. However, the game will illustrate if New England can keep its focus after two big divisional wins against a streaky Washington team with a proclivity for big plays but also backbreaking mistakes.

Read on for complete analysis of the matchups and game factors the Patriots must win on Sunday to finish the season's first half with an unblemished record. You can catch the game on Fox at 1 p.m. ET.

Week 8 Results and Recap

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Playing their second game in five days, the Patriots brought the hammer down against the upstart Miami Dolphins, who had eviscerated the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans in their first two games under Dan Campbell. However, the Thursday night contest at Gillette Stadium was barely even a fight, as the Pats suffocated the Dolphins offense en route to a 36-7 win.

Bill Belichick clearly honed in on Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry in his game plan. The two catalysts on Miami's offense, Miller and Landry had combined for 508 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns against Tennessee and Houston. However, against the Pats, the dynamic tandem combined for a meager 105 yards from scrimmage, with Miller's one-yard scoring plunge representing the Fins' only points of the night.

Indeed, the defense harassed Ryan Tannehill throughout the game, forcing him to try to beat New England with his subpar perimeter receiving options. He threw a pair of picks to Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon, and although junk-time numbers pushed his passing yardage total to 300, the fourth-year quarterback was generally miserable throughout the game. Chandler Jones also took him down twice to take the NFL sack lead with 8.5, which leaves him tied with J.J. Watt.

Tom Brady and the offense consequently had a huge margin for error. Despite some rough sequences throughout the first half, Brady was still able to toss four touchdowns, shredding Miami's secondary in the second half after the pass rush had dried up. Dion Lewis was particularly explosive in his return to the lineup, totaling 112 yards from scrimmage and scoring a second-quarter touchdown.

Most importantly, the win put the Patriots three games up on the rest of the division following the New York Jets' loss on Sunday. Halfway through the season, the "hat and T-shirt" game is already in sight; a seventh consecutive AFC East title looks inevitable at the moment.

News and Notes

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McCourty Pursuit Comes Up Short

It was an uneventful trade-deadline day around the NFL this week, with not a single deal being made in the hours before the 4 p.m. Tuesday deadline. Though NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport connected the Patriots to Tennessee Titans cornerback Jason McCourty, ESPN.com's Mike Reiss explains how a deal was never really feasible:

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Would the Patriots have liked Titans cornerback Jason McCourty? I don't think there's any question about that, but it was relayed to me through Tennessee connections that the Titans had no interest in trading him. So for there to even to be an extended discussion, they would have had to be wowed by a trade offer, and the Patriots aren't in the business of trading first-round draft picks.

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Reuniting Devin McCourty with his twin brother would have been the ideal deadline scenario for the Patriots, not unlike when they bolstered their similarly thin cornerback corps in 2013 by trading for Aqib Talib. Reiss also notes how the Pats sought Kansas City's Marcus Cooper in a potential deal, but that the Chiefs weren't interested in thinning their future depth due to the expiring contracts of Sean Smith and Jamell Fleming.

Thus, New England will march forward with the quartet of Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin at the position. The depth at safety has enabled the Patriots to offset some of the position's thinness, but it looks as though scheming against more talented receiving corps will be Bill Belichick's biggest challenge the rest of the way.

Broncos D Better Than Pats O?

At the moment, there's little question the two best units in football are the Patriots offense and Denver Broncos defense. Whereas the Pats lead the league with 35.6 points per game, the Broncos have topped the league in scoring defense, stifling offenses to the tune of 16.0 points per game. Fresh off its masterful effort against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, the Broncos defense might actually hold the upper edge on New England's offense, per Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz:

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According to DVOA, the Broncos have been 36 percent more efficient than an average defense. By comparison, the No. 1 New England offense has been 29.5 percent more efficient than an average offense. For all the conventional wisdom about defense winning championships, it's quite rare for the league's best defense to be better than the best offense over the course of an entire season. As we often write, the best offenses are usually better than the best defenses, and the worst offenses are usually worse than the worst defenses.

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The Patriots do top the weekly DVOA ratings, FO's mark of overall efficiency, but Denver rose into the top 10 (sixth overall) largely on the strength of its historic defense. As Schatz goes on to list, the Broncos possess the second-best defensive DVOA figure (-36.0 percent) in the site's database dating back to 1989, trailing only the 1991 Washington squad.

The two sides will settle the score on the field in Week 12, but both statistically and on the chalkboard, the Broncos appear better equipped than any team in the league to stop the irrepressible Patriots offense. Of course, the inverse also holds true, and if Peyton Manning's revival on Sunday proves sustainable, we might have our second Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship Game in the past three seasons.

Butler Seeks Redemption vs. Jackson

Malcolm Butler's confidence was evident even in his nascent days as an undrafted rookie, and that apparently manifested itself in one of his first training-camp practices. As NESN's Cameron McDonough relays, Butler reflected on volunteering to cover Jackson during Washington's joint practices with New England before the 2014 season, as well as the speedy wide receiver's strengths:

"I asked coach to go against him. I just wanted to, and that didn’t turn out too well. You’ve got to be careful what you do when you’re putting your hands on him. Pure speed. He can stop on a dime and take off, so there’s a lot to prepare for. . . . I’ve been a fan of him since way before I even got here. I have a lot of respect for that guy."

Jackson doesn't have a reception this season after injuring his hamstring early in Washington's Week 1 contest, but he will return to the lineup this week after missing six games. We'll touch more on Jackson's strengths shortly, and Bill Belichick certainly appears attuned to the field-stretching dimension his return offers to Washington's offense.

Nevertheless, Jackson should be a better matchup for Butler than what he's seen the past two weeks, as he's primarily played the slot in covering Eric Decker and Jarvis Landry. The second-year pro has always looked more comfortable on the perimeter, and though Jackson is different from the bigger split ends Butler usually sees, the Patriots' top corner should find more of a comfort zone playing on the perimeter.

Latest Injury News

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Patriots			Washington
Player	Injury	Status	Player	Injury	Status
Marcus Cannon	Toe	DNP	Bashaud Breeland	Hamstring	DNP
Tre' Jackson	Knee	DNP	Jason Hatcher	Knee	DNP
Jabaal Sheard	Ankle	DNP	Kory Lichtensteiger	Neck	DNP
Shaq Mason	Knee	Limited	Chris Culliver	Knee	Limited
Dion Lewis	Abdomen	Limited	DeAngelo Hall	Toe	Limited
Julian Edelman	Knee	Limited	DeSean Jackson	Hamstring	Limited
Keshawn Martin	Hamstring	Limited	Ryan Kerrigan	Hand	Limited
Ryan Wendell	Knee	Limited	Josh LeRibeus	Shoulder	Full
			Perry Riley	Leg	Full
			Keenan Robinson	Rib/Abdomen	Full
			Chris Thompson	Back	Full

The offensive line remains the thinnest spot in terms of injury. Marcus Cannon is still not practicing and apparently hampered by the toe injury he suffered in Week 6, while rookie Tre' Jackson is a new addition to the injury report. His knee injury, which appeared rather awkward live, could have been much worse if not for New England's mandate on offensive linemen wearing knee braces. Nevertheless, while Reiss reported Jackson won't need surgery, the right guard is expected to miss multiple weeks.

That makes the availability of Mason and Wendell all the more critical. The latter was active against Miami and came in when Jackson exited but appeared rusty in his first extended action of the season. Meanwhile, Mason has missed the past two games after suffering his own knee injury against the Colts, which potentially leaves the Pats scrambling on the interior.

Washington faces similar depth issues in the secondary, where all top three corners are a serious question mark to play. Hall and Culliver have combined to play just five games this season, with each missing the past two games, while Breeland's availability is apparently a serious concern after suffering a hamstring injury in Washington's last game against Tampa Bay in Week 7.

Stars such as DeSean Jackson and Ryan Kerrigan (who underwent minor hand surgery) should be available for Washington, but defending Tom Brady with the likes of Will Blackmon and undrafted rookies Deshazor Everett and Quinton Dunbar could spell disaster for Washington. Thus, the game (along with myriad fantasy leagues) could be drastically affected by the pregame inactives.

Injury report information via Patriots.com.

Key Matchups

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Patriots Right Tackle vs. Ryan Kerrigan

It's unclear whether Marcus Cannon will be ready to play Sunday and whether or not the Patriots would rotate Cannon in with Sebastian Vollmer and Cameron Fleming if he does play. None of the three is a natural left tackle, so whenever Cannon is healthy, it might make more sense to let one of them—likely Cannon or Vollmer—learn the left side full time, while the other two rotate on the right side.

Regardless of who plays right tackle, he'll have to deal with Washington's most explosive defensive player in Ryan Kerrigan. His sack total is down this season, as he has just 3.5 sacks after totaling 13.5 in 2014, but part of that stems from the increased attention he's garnered from offensive lines this year, as opponents are chipping him more than ever with Washington lacking a viable edge-rushing option on the opposite side.

Though New England's quick-strike passing game is designed to neuter the long routes that edge-rushers need to take, Washington's suspect secondary offers opportunities for bigger plays if the Patriots can pass-protect. Stopping Kerrigan from developing a rhythm early in the game could lead to a huge afternoon through the air for Brady.

Patrick Chung vs. Jordan Reed

When healthy, Jordan Reed has always been one of the league's more dangerous receiving tight ends due to his unique size (6'2", 237 lbs) and speed. After missing two games due to a concussion, he returned with a vengeance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, garnering a career-high 11 catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner with 24 seconds left.

Reed lines up both on the line and split out from the core of the formation like a receiver, but he's significantly more dangerous as the latter. Whenever he lines up in the slot, which tends to happen in clear passing situations, expect Patrick Chung to drop down on him. Chung has done an excellent job of covering tight ends in recent weeks, with the likes of Jason Witten and Jordan Cameron doing little against New England.

Pierre Garcon is Washington's most targeted receiver, while the return of speedster DeSean Jackson will force the Patriots safeties to play with extra depth. However, in terms of matchup problems, no one presents a bigger issue on the Washington offense than the talented tight end.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Dashon Goldson

In truth, this is probably the game's biggest mismatch. Goldson is a heady veteran who has improved after a couple of disastrous seasons in Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 scheme, but the Washington safety is no match for Gronkowski. Moreover, with a pair of subpar coverage linebackers in Perry Riley and Keenan Robinson, it's difficult to figure how D.C. might game-plan against Gronk.

Brady has some winnable matchups on the perimeter, especially if Breeland is unable to go because of injury, but Gronkowski should be his primary target Sunday. This mismatch has shades of the 2014 game against the Chicago Bears, when the lumbering tight end eviscerated Chicago's young, outmatched secondary for 149 yards and three touchdowns in just three quarters of action.

It's presumptuous to assume that Gronk will put up such a monstrous stat line, of course, but the potential is there for his biggest explosion of the season. Barring a Herculean effort from Goldson and the rest of Washington's front seven, it's difficult to imagine Gronkowski staying under wraps against this defense.

Matchup X-Factors

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Patriots X-Factor of the Week: Dont'a Hightower

Since returning from his rib injury suffered in Week 5, Hightower has been a heat-seeking missile against the run, totaling a team-high 13 solo tackles. Against a Washington offense that needs its running game to control the clock and alleviate pressure on Kirk Cousins, Hightower could be the piece that turns D.C. dangerously one-dimensional.

Washington's ground game has been disappointingly abysmal in 2015, as its rushing attack ranks 27th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The duo of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones started the season strong, totaling 331 rushing yards over the first two games, but has since totally collapsed. In Washington's past five games, Morris and Jones have combined for just 220 rushing yards on a wretched 2.6 yards per attempt.

Though Chris Thompson has been a pleasant surprise as a passing back, Washington surely would prefer not to engage in a shootout against New England. Hightower's skill set lends itself well to stifling Washington's zone-rushing attack, as he's proved particularly adept at knifing through the thin gaps that emerge in that rushing scheme.

Hightower might not be the best option to cover Thompson on passing downs, but if he can force Morris and Jones off the field, he will have done his job. Cousins hasn't proved capable of playing an entire game mistake-free, especially against fundamentally sound defenses, so putting the game in the hands of the Washington quarterback should spell good things for the Patriots.

Washington X-Factor of the Week: DeSean Jackson

It appears Jackson has finally gotten the green light to return after hurting his hamstring in the first quarter of opening week against Miami. He adds a vertical dimension that has been missing to Washington's passing game, potentially opening up some schematic creativity for Jay Gruden.

Jackson is a highly limited route-runner, and it won't be difficult for Belichick to coach his cornerbacks on the proper technique to keep him from beating the defense over the top. Actually defending Jackson is an entirely different story, however, and despite playing with Washington's tire fire of a quarterback situation in 2014, he managed to post a strong season roughly on par with what he had done in Philadelphia.

We can expect Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to receive safety help from Devin McCourty or Duron Harmon whenever they're across from Jackson. Though that probably leaves the inside-breaking underneath routes open, expect New England to remain patient against Cousins, knowing that the quarterback will likely provide the Patriots defense with its fair share of opportunities to create its own big plays.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Washington 17

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The 10-day break following the Week 8 win over Miami gave the Patriots a chance to catch their breath after an injury-filled and emotionally intense three-game stretch. However, even while Washington represents one of the least glamorous opponents remaining on the schedule, don't expect New England to take its foot off the pedal.

With the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos still undefeated as well, the Pats are in a real dogfight for a first-round bye. Unlike in 2007, when New England lapped the field and could afford to focus on its pursuit of history, this year's squad has enough personnel holes and AFC competition to force the team into a week-to-week mentality.

Washington has a reputation as a hot mess organizationally, but at 3-4, D.C. is an improving team that remains in the thick of the NFC East title chase. Gruden received criticism for how he handled Robert Griffin III and the quarterback situation last season, but he's done an underrated job as an offensive schemer, designing an overlooked functional offense despite lackluster personnel.

Nonetheless, barring a career game from Cousins and/or uncharacteristic mistakes from Brady and the offense, the talent gap between these two teams is too large to imagine an upset victory at Gillette Stadium. Expect the Patriots to finish their three-game homestand with another businesslike win, setting the stage for a more challenging month ahead.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Washington 17