Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: What's the Game Plan for Tampa Bay?
After a gut-wrenching collapse in the final seconds in Week 7, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are eager to put that loss behind them and get back in the win column. Unfortunately, they’ll face the tall task of heading out on the road to face the 6-1 Atlanta Falcons, who destroyed the Bucs 56-14 at the Georgia Dome last year.
The Bucs are starting to click on offense, as Doug Martin has spearheaded a top-five rushing attack, while Jameis Winston has gone two games without committing a turnover and threw for a career-high 297 yards last week.
Tampa Bay’s struggles have largely come on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary, and it won’t help that it’ll be facing the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones this week.
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What do the Bucs need to do on both sides of the ball to have a chance against the Dirty Birds this week? Let’s take a look.
Offensive Game Plan
Over the past two games, the Bucs have started to establish a clear identity on offense. Martin had topped 100 yards rushing in three straight games, while Winston has been taking better care of the ball and efficiently managing the offense.
Between Martin and Charles Sims, Tampa Bay’s ground game has been humming, ranking fourth in the league with 133.7 rushing yards per game. The offensive line has been quietly exceeding expectations, and both backs have been taking full advantage.
Since his four-interception outing against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, Winston hasn’t committed a single turnover, making better decisions with the ball and looking more comfortable in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s system. Koetter has brought life to Tampa Bay’s attack, helping it find an effective balance between the run and pass, and keeping defenses off balance with the play action.
Tampa Bay’s biggest concern this week will be its lack of depth at receiver. Louis Murphy is gone for the season with a torn knee ligament, and Vincent Jackson could be out for the foreseeable future with a knee injury. This leaves a skeleton crew behind Mike Evans, with the likes of Russell Shepard, Donteea Dye and Adam Humphries sliding up the depth chart to fill in the gaps.
Both Dye and Humphries are rookies who went undrafted yet had impressive training camps and have stuck around on the practice squad until recently. Dye made an impressive touchdown catch last week on his first NFL reception, and he has the speed to make things happen after the catch. Humphries should see plenty of work in the slot when the Bucs go with four receivers. Russell is a special teams stud who proved in the preseason he can be useful as a pass-catcher when counted on.
Evans will face the tall task of lining up across from Desmond Trufant, one of the best corners in the entire league. It will be a battle of heavyweights, and it will be interesting to see how much Winston is willing to challenge Trufant to get the ball to his best playmaker. The other members of Atlanta’s secondary are no slouches either, and with tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins unlikely to be available again this week, Winston’s alternative options will be limited.
The Bucs simply must have an effective run game to be successful on offense, but Atlanta knows that and will stack the box in an effort to shut Martin down. It’ll do everything it can to bottle him up and force Winston to beat it through the air.
Look for the Bucs to move Evans around to try to get him away from Trufant, freeing him up with more advantageous matchups elsewhere on the field. If they can capitalize on that and get enough going on the ground to keep the defense honest, the play-action game should be effective and free up holes in the back seven for Winston to exploit.
Defensive Game Plan
After a demoralizing finish against Washington last week, the Tampa Bay defense will be looking for some redemption this week. But it won’t be easy, as it’ll face a much more dangerous offense in Atlanta, led by two of the league’s best playmakers.
Devonta Freeman leads the NFL in rushing yards, total yards and touchdowns, establishing himself as not only the Falcons’ top back but one of the best in the entire league. He’s a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball and is equally effective on the ground as he is coming out of the backfield in the passing game.
Atlanta also has arguably the most explosive, dominant receiver in the league in Jones, who will be the biggest challenge Tampa Bay’s secondary has faced so far this season. Jones was unstoppable over the first three weeks of the season, catching 34 passes for 440 yards and four touchdowns. Multiple injuries have slowed him, as he’s failed to top 100 yards receiving in any game since, but he’s not listed on this week’s injury report and is due for another big game.
Tampa Bay’s game plan on defense should be fairly simple this week, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. It’s vital that it create pressure early and often with its front four, whether from Gerald McCoy up the middle or Jacquies Smith on the edge, disrupting Ryan’s timing and forcing him to make throws from a cluttered pocket. Rushers need to get their hands up if they can’t get to him, closing down throwing lanes and eliminating checkdowns to Freeman, who can do plenty of damage if given space to work after the catch.
Expect the secondary to struggle, but the real key to success in coverage will be the linebackers, who will face the tough challenge of avoiding getting sucked in by play-action fakes. Freeman’s threat as a runner will have them ready to pounce on his every carry, which would give Ryan gaping holes at the second level to exploit through the air.
If the Bucs can rattle Ryan, bottle Freeman and pilfer the ball, they’ll have a fighting chance this week on defense.
Top Matchups and Players to Watch
Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant
This matchup will feature two of the NFL’s best young players as their positions. Trufant has already become one of the premier cover men in the entire league, and while Evans had some early-season struggles thanks to a lingering hamstring injury, he’s coming off a season-best performance against Washington last week.
Tampa Bay’s laundry list of injuries at receiver will make it even more important for Evans to win this matchup and be Winston’s go-to target down the field.
Falcons DE Vic Beasley vs. Bucs OT Donovan Smith
This matchup of early 2015 draft picks pits top-10 selection Beasley against second-rounder Smith, both of whom have flashed some early potential but have yet to put together consistent performances on a weekly basis.
Smith has shown some improvement since taking over as Tampa Bay’s starting left tackle from day one but still has heavy feet in pass protection and struggles against quicker, more explosive edge-rushers. That’s exactly the kind of player Beasley is, so this matchup should be quite a test for the Penn State product. Beasley has only bagged two sacks so far this year—none since Week 3—but he’s due for a breakout performance, and this matchup favors his skill set.
Prediction
The Bucs are returning to the scene of the crime, where they were absolutely embarrassed in front of a national audience early last season. With the way their secondary has been playing lately, this matchup could easily get out of hand.
But one big difference this year is the efficiency Tampa Bay has been putting out on offense behind Winston and Martin, which should allow it to score enough points to make this one competitive. If the offensive line can continue to hold up in pass protection and give Martin enough room to work, the Bucs will have a shot, but their lack of depth at receiver against a solid secondary will limit Winston’s ability to attack it down the field.
Tampa Bay will have to be nearly flawless on offense, because its defense should struggle all game long to stop Atlanta’s playmakers. Freeman is a touchdown machine who can make big plays on the ground or through the air, and Jones is a threat to take the top off the defense on every snap.
Tampa Bay’s offense should make the score look somewhat respectable, but this one should be out of reach for most of the afternoon.
Final Prediction: Falcons 38, Bucs 24
All stats courtesy of NFL.com.
Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He is also a senior NFL draft analyst for Draft Breakdown. Follow him on Twitter @Luke Easterling.
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