The Weakest Link on Every NBA Contender
No NBA team is perfect, but these contenders come closer than most.
And that makes picking out their weak links tricky.
So we have to make important distinctions and deal in relative terms. The most important thing to keep in mind is that nobody's saying the weakness we highlight will lead to the downfall of a title contender. Instead, we're saying if a team on track for a championship goes off course, there's a good chance this particular shortcoming will be the reason why.
Sometimes we're talking about a specific player. Others, the focus will be on a position or even an entire end of the floor.
The criteria have to be broad because these teams generally don't have one obvious individual who'll hold them back. A player bad enough to derail a championship probably isn't in the rotation for a contender.
That's sort of what makes the team good enough to be in the title conversation.
So, again, no offense, contenders. You'll probably be fine. Just maybe, you know, keep an eye on the following trouble spots.
Those on the Fringe
1 of 8
We have to get a handful of not-quite-there teams out of the way. None of the following squads profile as legitimate contenders, but there may be a small minority who'd give them an outside shot at a ring.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies absolutely refuse to join the three-point revolution, and it's going to destroy them. They attempted fewer triples per game than all but one team last season, added no reputable perimeter shooters over the summer and promptly shot 2-of-16 from deep in a season-opening blowout loss, 106-76, to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. You've got to play to your gritty, grindy strengths.
But this is getting ridiculous.
Miami Heat
Hassan Whiteside might be the NBA's ultimate mixed bag—loaded with talent that led to some crazy numbers last year, but beset by immaturity and a couple of crippling on-court weaknesses that could hold him back in the future.
Whiteside simply cannot or will not pass the ball, and it doesn't really matter which it is. He has six assists against 65 turnovers in his career, which makes him a vulnerable target in Miami's offense. Doubling him is basically a no-brainer guaranteed to force a bad shot or a cough-up.
If Whiteside can't be part of a functional offense, it'll be hard for the Heat to keep him on the floor at all. And that's a problem, because sitting Whiteside could mean heavy minutes for Chris Bosh at center.
That was a fine way to go when Miami had LeBron James and a swarming defense, but now that the Heat are decidedly less vicious on that end, it's difficult to see a championship-caliber defense forming with Bosh as the centerpiece.
Oh, and Dwyane Wade's ability to stay healthy is a concern. You've probably heard that once or twice.
Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr's Health
2 of 8
Starting center Andrew Bogut posted an on-court net rating of plus-16.6 last season, per NBA.com, and was among the league's very best rim protectors. But he couldn't even get on the floor in the last two games of the NBA Finals because the Dubs' small lineup was so effective.
That's kind of the Warriors in a nutshell: Whenever a weakness shows up—be it because of a strategic mismatch, injury, fatigue or the rare off night for a rotation player—there's a way to turn it into a strength.
You don't win 67 games and post a historic average margin of victory if you've got glaring shortcomings. The Warriors roster is essentially bulletproof: elite shooting, superstar defense, unselfishness across the board. There are no missing pieces.
Unfortunately, the guy who so ably maneuvered those pieces last season is ailing. Head coach Steve Kerr is out indefinitely following complications from offseason back surgery that resulted in a spinal fluid leak.
Though he was on hand to collect his championship ring opening night, Kerr didn't look like someone who'd be back on the sidelines soon.
"I would hope tomorrow, but tomorrow's not happening," Kerr told reporters before the season opener. "I fully believe that I will be back before too long."
There's a sense that this team is good enough to run on autopilot. But that minimizes Kerr's role as an emotional leader and strategic savant. Golden State can be successful without its head coach, but I'm not convinced it can win a championship.
And in this era of Warriors basketball, falling short of another ring is a failure.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shooting Guard
3 of 8
If you could combine the various talents of the Oklahoma City Thunder's shooting guards, you'd have a superstar. Unfortunately, as separate entities, each of the contenders for minutes at the 2 combines specialty strengths with broader deficiencies.
Take Anthony Morrow as the first example. Here's a guy who ranks ninth all time in career three-point percentage—as deadly an open shooter as there is in the NBA today. Yet he's started a grand total of 10 games over the last three seasons, because he hasn't defended well enough to earn a bigger role.
Andre Roberson is basically a Bizarro version of Morrow: wretched from long range, but one of the absolute best wing defenders in the league. Last year, he knocked 4.5 percent off opponents' field-goal percentages when he was the primary defender, per NBA.com, and ranked third in the league among shooting guards in defensive real plus-minus, according to ESPN.com.
But he can't shoot a lick, as evidenced by his 24.7 percent conversion rate on 85 attempted treys in 2014-15. And in the world that exists today—the one in which the Warriors completely eliminated Tony Allen from an entire playoff series by not guarding him on the perimeter—Roberson is unplayable in games that matter.
That leaves Dion Waiters, a player with obvious physical gifts but no track record of reasonable shot selection or competent defense. At least Morrow and Roberson have demonstrable skills in specific areas. Playing Waiters is an act of blind faith at this point.
As long as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are healthy, OKC should be viewed as a legitimate contender. It could easily win the whole thing.
But if the Thunder find themselves in a playoff series where weaknesses get exposed, the issues at shooting guard will be front and center.
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
4 of 8
Tony Parker? Tony Parker?!
Yeah, Tony Parker.
The six-time All-Star wasn't himself last season, posting his lowest scoring average since 2002-03 and his lowest player efficiency rating since 2003-04.
Beset by hamstring troubles for most of the year, the 33-year-old lacked the quickness that landed him among the league leaders in points in the paint for a decade.
Instead of blowing by everyone in transition and in the pick-and-roll, he settled for jumpers. And while it's encouraging that Parker shot a career-best 42.7 percent from three, the real number to know is this: He attempted just 25.5 percent of his shots from inside three feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com, a career low.
He stopped getting into the lane. He stopped getting to the line. And then his game completely fell off a cliff in the Spurs' first-round loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Parker is vital to San Antonio because he's the chaos engineer—the one who gets into the lane, draws defenders and begins the tic-tac-toe passing attack that has for years resulted in open jumpers against scrambling defenses. The Spurs don't have anyone to replace what he does.
San Antonio has backup plans: LaMarcus Aldridge can generate good looks by drawing the defense, and Kawhi Leonard could take another step as a playmaker. But Parker is the one who makes the Spurs go, and Tim Bontemps of the New York Post sees a bleak future without peak Parker: "If last season was the beginning of a new normal for the French legend, you can kiss the Spurs' championship chances goodbye."
It sounds like a potential weak link to me.
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard's Health
5 of 8
Dwight Howard missed exactly half the season in 2014-15, mainly because of knee troubles that lingered into the playoffs. And he was limited by a stiff back for most of the preseason.
It's tempting to point to breakout big man Clint Capela as a Howard replacement—one whose athleticism, bounce and length surprised just about everybody in the 2015 postseason. There's no doubt Capela has a bright future, but he's played a grand total of 30 NBA games (playoffs included) and simply isn't ready to replicate everything Howard does.
Though Howard isn't the dominant force he was five years ago, he's still darn good, as B/R's Kelly Scaletta observed: "Let's not diminish the impact a healthy Howard can have on the Rockets. The team's net rating last season was plus-8.2 when he was on the court and plus-1.8 when he wasn't. Just because he smiles a lot doesn't mean he's ineffective."
Houston is one of the deepest teams in the league, especially with the addition of Ty Lawson (for basically nothing) and especially if the power forward combo of Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas is healthy.
But Howard is the key to keeping the Rockets defense and rebounding on a championship level.
Big men with significant mileage (Howard has played almost 29,000 regular-season minutes) don't often reverse the downward trajectory of bad health. Hopefully Howard bucks the trend.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Defense
6 of 8
Offense isn't going to be an issue for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Playing a messy mix of head coach David Blatt's system and formless, LeBron James-led freelance basketball, they still managed to rank fourth in scoring efficiency last season.
According to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, "Privately, the Cavs were pleased with the ball movement, off-player ball movement, screens and cuts (in the season opener) against Chicago. From the start, not only were flashes of Blatt's European-style offense on display, the Cavs looked comfortable in those sets."
Cleveland then smashed the Memphis Grizzlies by 30 in its second game. It could roll out of bed and score at a top-five rate.
The other end is the problem area, and the strange thing is that we don't even know how big of a problem it might be. The Cavs ranked 20th in defensive efficiency last year. After the All-Star break, featuring the roster that propelled them through the playoffs, that rating only rose to 14th.
And for all of the talk about how good the Cavs offense would have looked in the Finals with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving healthy, just imagine how bad that defense would have been.
Given the personnel in their first unit, the Cavaliers simply might never be able to field a top-10 defense. That could be a problem in a seven-game series against a team smart enough to exploit weaknesses.
It's a good thing Cleveland can score like few other teams in the league. It'll have to.
Los Angeles Clippers: Backup Point Guard
7 of 8
The bench is the easy answer here, even after the Los Angeles Clippers added Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith over the summer. Those three players all come with question marks, and it's possible the Clips' reserve corps winds up as thin as the one that sank them in 2015.
But most of L.A.'s backups look fine for now, so we'll give them a pass in the interest of hitting a more specific area: second-string point guard.
Having Chris Paul has always minimized the importance of a substitute floor general. Put him in charge of any offense, and it's a lock to finish among the league's best. But as Paul transitions into the latter stages of his career, it's tough to imagine him continuing to play at an MVP level.
And nothing we've seen from Austin Rivers or Pablo Prigioni suggests either will be capable of keeping the offense running smoothly if Paul is injured or needs a break in a meaningful game. Case in point: The Clips were outscored by three points per 100 possessions when Paul was sidelined during last year's playoffs.
Blake Griffin has real playmaking skills, and maybe Jamal Crawford can handle things as a shoot-first option. But neither is an adequate Paul replacement.
Chicago Bulls: The Offense-Defense Transition
8 of 8
So, can we talk about the open secret that the Chicago Bulls aren't really that great on defense anymore? Is that allowed, or do we have to keep pretending it's 2011?
Even under former head coach Tom Thibodeau last year, the Bulls offense ranked higher in efficiency (10th) than their defense (11th), according to NBA.com. And with Fred Hoiberg taking over, we should expect the Bulls to further embrace an offensive mentality.
The decision to start Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol suggests Hoiberg is focused on scoring—which is a totally reasonable way to go, because so much of the criticism leveled at Thibs focused on a stagnant offense that didn't make use of the talent on hand.
Hoiberg's approach may be the right one, and it'll definitely make things more fun. But if the defense slips any further outside of the top 10, it'll be difficult to view Chicago as a serious title threat.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
