Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two disappointing NFL teams will meet in London when the Detroit Lions (1-6) face the Kansas City Chiefs (2-5) Sunday at Wembley Stadium. The Chiefs ended a five-game losing streak straight up and against the spread with a 23-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week as three-point home favorites while the Lions failed to cover their third in a row in a 28-19 loss to the Minnesota Vikings as one-point home chalk.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.2-23.0 Chiefs

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit just fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, per Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com. Lombardi took the fall for the team’s inability to score much outside of their lone victory in overtime against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago. The Lions beat the Bears 37-34 in that game but nearly lost it, which would have put them in danger of duplicating their dubious 0-16 mark from 2008. This team is much more talented than that one though, which is why Lombardi is gone.

Fortunately for Detroit, their next opponent is one that has struggled just as much this season. Kansas City has looked abysmal at times and failed about the same offensively, making this a fairly even matchup. The irony is that both head coaches have offensive backgrounds, so there’s really nobody to blame but themselves. The Lions also have more talent on paper, so they should be able to at least cover in this spot.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs got their first home win last week and earned just their second victory overall when they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-13 as three-point favorites. They had failed to score more than 21 points in their previous three games and got another solid defensive effort in holding an opponent under 19 for the third straight time.

Detroit has had similar issues offensively and may continue to sputter along with new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter taking over for Lombardi. As mentioned earlier, Lions head coach Jim Caldwell should be taking the blame, and his job could very well be on the line here, much like Joe Philbin with the Miami Dolphins earlier in London.

Smart pick

When a team does not look right, odds are there’s a good reason behind it. Caldwell may have taken the first step toward fixing Detroit’s offensive woes by letting some of his assistant coaches go, but that still won’t change the culture inside the locker room. Despite suffering from some of the same problems, Kansas City is still in a much better place and will be able to beat the Lions by more than a touchdown to cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Lions are 5-0 SU in their last five games in Week 8.

The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Chiefs.

The Lions are 0-20 SU in their last 20 games as underdogs in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.