Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (6-0) will put their unbeaten record on the line versus an AFC opponent for the second straight week when they host the Miami Dolphins (3-3) in the Week 8 Thursday night game. The Patriots have lost two of the last three meetings with the Dolphins both straight up and against the spread, and they are 3-1-2 ATS this season, with both pushes coming at home.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-19.0 Patriots

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami is 2-0 SU and ATS since Dan Campbell took over as head coach for Joe Philbin after he was fired following the team’s 27-14 loss to the New York Jets in London. The Dolphins had lost three straight SU and ATS before winning two in a row by an average of 23 points, so Campbell must be doing something right here.

Many experts knew they were talented heading into the season and picked them as the second-best team in the AFC East behind only New England. That’s why Philbin was fired, and the players are now proving themselves as part of a legit playoff contender. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been outstanding in leading their offensive resurgence, completing 40 of 48 passes for 548 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in the last two games combined.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

What else can be said about the Patriots other than the fact that they are playing like champs again and continue to find a way to stay motivated against every opponent they play. The Dolphins will be no different, especially since they are a divisional foe and have had some recent success against them. New England quarterback Tom Brady thrives on challenges and seems to be focused on another perfect season right now.

Brady was spectacular in leading the Pats past the Jets, 30-23, last week in Foxborough after they trailed 23-20 in the fourth quarter, finishing with 355 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. In the only previous game for New England against an AFC East opponent this year, Brady threw for a season-high 466 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a 40-32 road victory against the Buffalo Bills back in Week 2.

Smart pick

It’s hard to go against the Patriots in this spot, but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last four appearances on Thursday night. Miami also has the ability to stay within a touchdown here, especially with Tannehill playing at a high level again. Look for the Dolphins to hang in there and give New England a scare two days before Halloween to cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home in October.

The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs in October.

The Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four TNF games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.