The Biggest Threat to Each Remaining Undefeated College Football Team
The massive list of 128 FBS programs clinging to undefeated records back on the first Thursday night of the 2015 campaign has been whittled all the way down to 14 as the season's second half kicks off this week.
We're now at the point of the season when teams that have already lost a game are back in consideration as top playoff contenders. But the biggest front-runners in the race for the postseason's top games can still be found with a sparkling zero in the loss column.
Ten of these undefeated programs are in Power Five conferences, looking to survive and advance long enough to make it to the coveted four-team bracket. The remaining four represent the Group of Five conferences, which are battling it out for just one bid into the New Year's Six bowls.
Last month, I went through every undefeated team's schedule—there were 29 remaining at that point—and predicted their first loss of the season. This time around, I've singled out the one opponent that is the biggest threat to a program's perfect record, with some help from the advanced stat projections over at Football Study Hall.
If a currently undefeated team lost just one game by the end of this regular season, to which opponent would it most likely be? Sound off with what you think in the comments below.
Baylor
1 of 12
at TCU (Nov. 27)
Yes, Baylor has had an easy start to the season by bashing FBS opponents with a combined record of 12-19 by an average of 39 points. But, as Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval wrote this week, the Bears are just a couple of weeks away from hitting a treacherous November schedule.
With an offense that is far and away the best in college football in both points and yardage for now a third straight season, Baylor should only have real trouble with teams that can light up scoreboards at nearly the same pace. It just so happens that the nation's No. 2 team in scoring offense right now is undefeated rival TCU.
"Assuming Baylor can navigate through all of that unscathed, it has a short week leading into a road trip to TCU," Kercheval wrote. "If the Horned Frogs keep winning, this could be a top-five opponent for Baylor and easily the toughest game of the season."
While Baylor has had more statistical success this season with quarterback Seth Russell and wide receiver Corey Coleman, the Horned Frogs have their own Heisman-contending combo in Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson. Thanks to its banged-up defense, TCU also has a good amount of experience in dealing with shootouts, and it has home-field advantage over Baylor this time around.
Clemson and Florida State
2 of 12
Each Other (Nov. 7 at Clemson)
The biggest game in the ACC's regular season will once again be the Atlantic Division showdown between Clemson and Florida State. With the way their schedules shake out, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the winner of this game go on and claim a playoff berth.
Barring any major surprises in the next two weekends, Clemson will be the favored team at home in Death Valley. The Tigers defense is playing some of the best football in the country right now, and star quarterback Deshaun Watson is moving the ball quite efficiently through the air.
A less experienced Florida State team is starting to hit its stride on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Everett Golson has benefited greatly from some tweaks to the Seminoles' offensive scheme, and running back Dalvin Cook has the look of a Heisman finalist through the first half of the regular season. Defensively, the Seminoles are incredibly talented and one of the game's best against the run.
If both teams take care of business in the next two weeks, this will be a Top-10 heavyweight bout with huge championship implications. Clemson should be able to waltz through the rest of its schedule after a win over FSU, which also has a huge road game at in-state foe Florida at the end of the season. One thing is for sure—neither team has a tougher test than this one.
Houston
3 of 12
vs. Navy (Nov. 27)
If you're looking for a team to make an undefeated run to the postseason, might I suggest adding Houston to your watch list?
The Cougars have soared under first-year head coach Tom Herman, with outstanding dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. doing his best Braxton Miller impression on plenty of hapless defenses. Since the Cougars' Week 2 win at Louisville, the closest any opponent has come to knocking off Houston has been Tulsa, who lost by 14 at home.
Houston's schedule also sets up well for the second half of the season, with its only road games coming against winless UCF and 3-4 UConn. According to the projections at Football Study Hall, the toughest contest the Cougars have left this season is their regular-season finale against Navy.
While Houston has the nation's No. 11 rush defense this season, it won't have faced a rushing attack quite like the one at Navy. The Cougars will have a shorter week to prepare for their Friday game against the Midshipmen, who can rack up a ton of points and yards on the ground with record-chasing quarterback Keenan Reynolds.
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Iowa
4 of 12
at Nebraska (Nov. 27)
Perhaps the most surprising undefeated team in the Power Five conferences, Iowa has set itself up extremely well for a Big Ten West championship and even a dark-horse playoff push over the last month-and-a-half of the season.
"They’re 7-0 and ranked No. 12 in the Associated Press poll and have, on paper, the easiest path to a 12-0 regular-season record of any remaining unbeaten team in the country," Brian Bennett of ESPN.com wrote. "Knock Iowa’s schedule if you want, but consider this: It has already beaten two teams that were ranked in the Top 20 at the time—Wisconsin and Northwestern—on the road."
The biggest spoiler to what could be an unbelievable party in Iowa this November is none other than rival Nebraska, which hosts the Hawkeyes at the end of the season. Sure, the Huskers are currently 3-4, but all four of their losses have come on the opponent's final offensive play of the game.
After battling through so much heartbreak this year, Nebraska would love nothing more than to end Iowa's dreams of an undefeated campaign on the final weekend of the regular season. The Huskers average more than 450 yards per game this season and would be a tough test away from home for a strong Iowa defense.
LSU
5 of 12
at Alabama (Nov. 7)
Barring a massive upset by Western Kentucky—or a slightly smaller one for Tennessee over Alabama—LSU will enter Tuscaloosa in two weeks for its annual slugfest against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.
"That’ll lead to two weeks of mind-numbing hype: Leonard Fournette vs. [Derrick] Henry; Saban again facing his former team, the 2011 national championship chase all over again," Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh wrote. "So go ahead and circle the date on the calendar because it might determine the SEC West champion, and it could be viewed as a quasi play-in game for what’s now called the playoffs."
Since its surprising home loss to what has been a disappointing Ole Miss team in recent weeks, Alabama has taken hold of its playoff hopes yet again with big road wins at Georgia and Texas A&M. Alabama has won its last four matchups against LSU, with the Tigers' last win coming in the aforementioned 2011 season.
LSU's back-loaded schedule also includes dangerous matchups against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but none come bigger than Alabama, which will be a Game of the Year candidate once again.
Memphis
6 of 12
at Houston (Nov. 14)
Memphis pulled off the incredible upset of Ole Miss at home last weekend, and now the Tigers are sitting firmly in the Top 25 with an undefeated record and the goal of grabbing the Group of Five's berth in the New Year's Six bowls.
But after back-to-back matchups against AAC strugglers Tulsa and Tulane, Memphis must navigate through a rough trio of conference games that will ultimately decide the conference's race toward its first-ever championship game. Right now, the middle game at Houston appears to be the toughest test for Justin Fuente's program.
Houston has been an offensive juggernaut this season with Herman and Ward Jr., ranking fifth nationally in total yards per game. And the Tigers' biggest woe—although it didn't cost them against Ole Miss—has been defense. Bowling Green, Cincinnati and Ole Miss all put up at least 440 passing yards on Memphis this season.
The Cougars look like the ideal team to make the ultimate breakthrough against the Memphis defense, and they'll have home-field advantage for what should be a high-scoring affair in Texas. Memphis has several tough games left on the schedule, but Houston is a Texas-sized threat.
Michigan State and Ohio State
7 of 12
Each Other (Nov. 21 at Ohio State)
Just like Clemson and Florida State, Michigan State and Ohio State will most likely enter their matchup for control of Big Ten's East division and No. 1 playoff contender status with undefeated records.
The way Michigan State has played so far this season, a number of teams could jump up and knock the Spartans off from the ranks of the unbeaten. But after their now-legendary victory over Michigan, the Spartans will still be favored most of the way thanks to an elite defensive front and a talented, yet inconsistent, offense.
Ohio State has found its groove after a lackluster start to the year, and the move to J.T. Barrett as starting quarterback could take the Buckeyes to the next level on the offensive side of the ball. If they perform like they're plenty capable, the Buckeyes will cruise into the Horseshoe in mid-November for this massive showdown.
OSU will still have a road matchup against better-than-expected Michigan to end the season, but Michigan State still serves as the top challenger to its throne. This is still one of the biggest games left on the college football calendar.
Oklahoma State
8 of 12
vs. Baylor (Nov. 21)
Oklahoma State is probably the least impressive undefeated team of the Power Five conferences at this point in the season. The Cowboys are still behind four one-loss programs in the AP Top 25 after close wins over Texas, Kansas State and West Virginia.
One thing working in Oklahoma State's favor, though, is that it faces the "Big Three" in the Big 12—Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU—all at home. And while Baylor hasn't won in Stillwater since 1939, the Bears are still the biggest threats to ruin a surprise run for the Cowboys in 2015.
Oklahoma State has the No. 2 defense in the Big 12 thanks to some relentless pressure on opposing backfields—the Cowboys are first nationally in sacks per game and second in tackles for loss per game this season. But Baylor's strong offensive line, which has allowed just five sacks in five games, will help neutralize one of Oklahoma State's biggest strengths.
While the Cowboys offense can play extremely fast football, they've hovered in the 30-point zone in their first three Big 12 wins of the season. They'll need more offensive firepower to knock off a tough title contender like Baylor, even at home.
TCU
9 of 12
at Oklahoma (Nov. 21)
TCU has battled through a stunning outbreak of injuries on its first-choice defense and a few tight games away from home to remain undefeated so far this season.
"[TCU] made it to the bye week with an unblemished record. It won't make it to its next break without a loss," Jose Rodriguez of the Dallas Morning News wrote. "TCU will lose either its game against the Sooners in Norman, Okla., on Nov. 21, or fall short in the Black Friday showdown with Baylor."
While Rodriguez picked Baylor to knock off TCU at home, I'm going the opposite direction by picking Oklahoma as the Frogs' toughest test remaining in the season. On top of the home-field advantage in Norman, Oklahoma also has defensive success and star power Baylor can't quite match—the Sooners have allowed more than 370 yards only once this season.
After struggling in a bad loss to Texas, Oklahoma's offense caught fire again at Kansas State—a team that came close to beating TCU—by hanging 55 points in a shutout win over the Wildcats. Add the possible look-ahead to Baylor danger for TCU, and the Frogs have an incredible test on their hands with balanced OU before they even get to the Bears in Fort Worth.
Temple
10 of 12
vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 31)
Temple flirted with supreme disaster last weekend by trailing winless UCF heading into the fourth quarter of a home matchup. But the Owls rallied for the victory, and they're still in the hunt for the lucrative Group of Five's major bowl berth.
After playing ECU on short rest Thursday night, Temple will host Notre Dame in what will be a sellout, prime-time, nationally televised showdown in Philadelphia, according to Keith Arnold of NBCSports.com. Temple has already knocked off a big-time program at home this season—Penn State in Week 1—but the Irish will be a much tougher challenge.
Temple has won its games this season on excellent defense, led by tackle machine Tyler Matakevich, but it'll face a Notre Dame offense that is seventh nationally in yards per play this season. The last high-powered attack Temple faced, Cincinnati, put up 557 yards on the Owls.
Notre Dame will have an extra advantage of having a bye this weekend, while Temple has to face ECU on the road. A loss won't completely crush their dreams of a New Year's Six berth, but the Owls will have quite a challenge on their hands when the Irish come to visit next Saturday.
Toledo
11 of 12
at Bowling Green (Nov. 17)
After some lower-scoring wins earlier this season—including two against Power Five opponents Arkansas and Iowa State—Toledo showed it can put a massive dent in the scoresheets last weekend by throttling Eastern Michigan by a score of 63-20.
The Rockets will need more great offensive outputs like that to survive a stretch of #MACtion Tuesday night games in November, the greatest of which coming on the road against Bowling Green.
Bowling Green has one of the nation's most prolific offenses, averaging more than 40 points and almost 600 yards per game this season. The eye-popping combination of quarterback Matt Johnson, the nation's No. 1 passer, and wide receiver Roger Lewis will put a lot of strain on the Toledo defense, which allowed 412 passing yards to slower-moving Arkansas in Week 1.
Football Study Hall projects Toledo to win all of its remaining regular-season games, but there's no doubt the rivalry contest at Bowling Green will be the toughest one for the Rockets. Toledo has won five straight Battles of I-75, and the Falcons will be geared up for a big upset in front of their home fans.
Utah
12 of 12
at USC (Oct. 24)
Utah is the No. 3 team in the country right now and received the second-most first-place votes in the latest AP poll. USC has an interim head coach and a disappointing 3-3 record. But, according to Odds Shark, the Trojans are the favored team in this week's matchup—not the higher-ranked Utes.
"Two months into the year, and the Utes—with a manageable schedule laid out before them—are suddenly eyeing the playoff," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote. "And yet, this game, like a few other high-profile matchups this week, feels like anything but a given. USC has absolutely nothing to lose and a wealth of individual talent."
If Utah knocks off USC on the road this weekend and gets its first back-to-back wins over the Trojans in almost 100 years, then the Utes' road gets a lot brighter. A home game against UCLA appears to be the toughest test after USC, and there's no telling what the sliding Bruins will look like by that point.
The oddsmakers and the advanced metrics both agree Utah's biggest chance at stumbling will come this weekend against a desperate and quite talented USC team that just gave Notre Dame a tough contest away from home. Now is the time for Kyle Whittingham's team to prove all the doubters wrong.
Unless otherwise noted, other statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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