Texans vs. Dolphins: Full Houston Week 7 Preview
The Houston Texans have never lost to the Miami Dolphins during their short time as an NFL franchise.
Since the Texans joined the league in 2002, the Dolphins haven't exactly been a juggernaut, but owning a perfect record over a team for this long does seem like a bit of an anomaly.
Miami finished with a better record than Houston after losing to the Texans in 2002 and 2008, so the losses haven't exclusively come from catching them at the right time, like when starting a rookie quarterback—Ryan Tannehill—on the road in his first career start. Miami has been the favorite in three of the seven games, according to Odds Shark.
If the Texans are able to stretch their record to 8-0 against Miami after this week, that would put them in a great spot to compete for the title of a very weak division.
The Dolphins finally put together some of the potential many believed they had last week under interim head coach Dan Campbell. But if the Texans are able to pull out a win, all that would stand between them and a .500 record heading into their Week 9 bye would be a home game against Tennessee.
Reaching .500 isn't much to get excited about, but it could put some pressure on the current division leaders.
After a comparatively winnable home game this week, the next three games for the Indianapolis Colts—whom the Texans trail by just one game—will be against Carolina, Denver and Atlanta.
Those three teams have a combined record of 16-1 currently. The only blemish on that record came when Atlanta lost to New Orleans; the Saints are the Colts' opponent this week.
Two of those three games will be on the road as well—Carolina and Atlanta—so the Colts could very plausibly end up with an ugly 4-6 record after 10 games.
While the Colts do appear to be vulnerable, it seems doubtful the Texans will be able to take advantage of the situation.
Like the Colts' upcoming gauntlet, the Texans schedule after their Week 9 bye will be very tough. If forced to guess, it wouldn't come as a shock to see the Texans as underdogs in six of their eight games after the bye week.
None of the future scenarios will matter, though, if they don't beat Miami this week.
Week 6 Results and Recap
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For three quarters, it seemed like the Houston Texans might be headed for another disappointing loss, but a great fourth quarter saved the game and maybe even the season.
Besides the play of receiver DeAndre Hopkins, which has been consistently great all season, the other areas of the game where the Texans had struggled to find consistency all came together for their most well-played, complete game overall this year.
It all starts with the quarterback, of course, and Brian Hoyer had the best game any Texans quarterback has had since the six-touchdown performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick last November.
Hoyer posted the second-best quarterback rating of his career along with nearly 300 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions for the game; it was the only time he's ever thrown at least three touchdowns without an interception.
Besides the numbers, it was great to see the chemistry and trust between him and Hopkins during that game.
Hopkins is one of those receivers who is open even when it doesn't look that way with his great skill in "high-pointing" the football, exceptional hand strength, leaping ability and knack for bringing down more than his fair share of "50-50" passes.
"DeAndre Hopkins hauled in 10 catches, including a one-handed gem, to earn AFC OPotW honors. https://t.co/VcvPI42cPJ pic.twitter.com/zTBO5FX1Gs
— SB Nation NFL (@SBNationNFL) October 21, 2015 "
".@Nukdabomb on pace for 138 catches, 1936 yards, 13 TDs. In "best WR" convo. Caught THIS: http://t.co/kj5Eh429Uf pic.twitter.com/Rj5IVrdzef
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 19, 2015"
Hoyer trusted Hopkins enough to lob up jump balls and fire in back-shoulder passes throughout the game, and it paid off to the tune of 10 receptions for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
Arian Foster also had his best game of the season with over 100 yards combined rushing and receiving along with one touchdown. The days of Foster ripping off 150-yard games on the ground while slicing through defenses might be over, but he's still a very valuable receiving threat and a big difference-maker.
J.J. Watt didn't have one of his signature games but was a disruptive force in the second half. Watt was nearly invisible during the first half after dealing with an illness in the days leading up to the game but found some untapped energy and came away with a batted pass and several pressures late in the game.
Thankfully, Whitney Mercilus and Andre Hal picked up some of the slack and made more plays against Jacksonville than they had all season.
Mercilus had two sacks while filling in for Jadeveon Clowney as the Texans' primary edge-rusher from the outside linebacker position, while Hal had two timely interceptions that swung the momentum of the game.
Hal's first interception saved at least three points and possibly seven, as the Jaguars were at the Houston 10-yard line with less than 30 seconds remaining in the first half, while his second was returned for a game-clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter.
It's a team game, but Hal's ability to read and recognize what was coming quickly, jump two passes and intercept them both provided a 10- to 14-point swing in the Texans' favor. It was a very impressive game from the second-year player, who seems to be adjusting well to the position change from corner to safety.
The Texans as a team also stopped the Jaguars running game well, holding their running backs to just 46 rushing yards on a pitiful 2.7-yards-per-carry average.
Blake Bortles did find some success picking up yards on the ground from scrambling, but the Texans will win a lot of games by holding their opponents to those rushing yards and yards-per-carry numbers.
News and Notes
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Welcome Back, Charles James
With a roster spot opened up by the unfortunate injury to second-year safety Lonnie Ballentine, the Texans welcomed back a fan favorite to the team who was just recently cut by the Baltimore Ravens.
"Ravens cut Charles James this weekend when they promoted Terrence Magee to active roster now he's coming back to Houston
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 19, 2015"
Where the Hard Knocks star will fit into the depth chart at corner is hard to say, but at the very least, he should be able to contribute on special teams immediately.
The Texans have several injuries to players in the secondary, including Kareem Jackson and Quintin Demps, so James could see more playing time this week than he would in most games. But his true value is on special teams, where he made several big plays during the preseason.
Quarterback Position Solidified for Now
After producing the best game a Texans quarterback has had since Ryan Fitzpatrick's six-touchdown performance against Tennessee last November, Bill O'Brien seems ready to lock in who his starter will be at the position.
"Bill O'Brien on Brian Hoyer: 'I would say he's our quarterback. We're going to stick with him.'
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 19, 2015"
With the advantage of hindsight, pulling Brian Hoyer during the fourth quarter of the Week 1 game was a mistake. Hoyer's performance in that game didn't earn him anything, but pulling the starter quickly opened up a can of worms the team is just now starting to get back under control.
Blaming Coach O'Brien for that decision is hard because I was just as guilty of endorsing that knee-jerk reaction, but regardless of what you think of Ryan Mallett, the quarterback who deserves to start is clearly Hoyer.
Mallett has the stronger arm and youth on his side, but nearly every other check on the list of attributes and skills a quarterback needs to be successful goes in favor of Hoyer.
His stats were very good against Jacksonville, but even if you didn't see the box score, it was obvious just from watching the game that he was making more adjustments at the line, identifying coverage quicker, getting rid of the ball sooner and delivering his passes with more accuracy than we'd seen from Mallett.
That's not an endorsement for him to even be on the team next year or a statement of belief in his ability to lead the Texans to the playoffs, but Hoyer is the right guy for right now.
DeAndre Hopkins Is Putting Up Silly Numbers
With stats that look like a box score from a game of Madden 16, DeAndre Hopkins is on pace for a very special statistical season.
Through six games, Hopkins has 52 receptions for 726 yards and five touchdowns; he caught 52 total passes during his entire rookie season in 2013.
Those numbers put him on pace for 139 receptions, 1,936 yards and 13 touchdowns. Just straight-up video game numbers.
We can debate the likelihood of him reaching those numbers, but if he does stay on this pace, Hopkins will come very close to setting a couple of single-season NFL records.
| Player | Season | Receptions |
| Marvin Harrison | 2002 | 143 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2015 (On Pace) | 139 |
| Antonio Brown | 2014 | 129 |
| Player | Season | Receiving Yards |
| Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 1,964 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2015 (On Pace) | 1,936 |
| Jerry Rice | 1995 | 1,848 |
Keeping company with Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson and Jerry Rice in the top three for each of those two records is pretty special for a player only in his third year, not to mention the caliber of quarterback he's playing with.
Latest Injury News
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| Carlos Thompson | Wrist | Injured Reserve |
| Jeff Adams | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Tom Savage | Shoulder | Injured Reserve |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | Injured Reserve |
| Lonnie Ballentine | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Ryan Griffin | Knee | IR/DFR |
| Kareem Jackson | Ankle | Out |
| Cecil Shorts | Hamstring | Out |
| Benardrick McKinney | Concussion | Out |
| Quintin Demps | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Ankle | Questionable |
| Nate Washington | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Oday Aboushi | Toe | Questionable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Talk
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (10/21): pic.twitter.com/ZZS4np75i1
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) October 21, 2015"
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Key Matchups
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Containing Lamar Miller
After a slow start to the season, perennial fantasy football disappointment Lamar Miller had a breakout game against the Tennessee Titans last week.
Miller torched the Titans with 113 rushing yards on nearly six yards per carry and scored one touchdown during the blowout victory.
Over the Dolphins' first four games of the season, Miller only had a combined total of 131 rushing yards on a lousy average of 3.54 yards per carry. It seems like the coaching change helped out his production.
Slowing Down Rishard Matthews
In news that could be described as a bit of a surprise, fourth-year player Rishard Matthews has become the Dolphins' go-to receiving threat following the departure of Mike Wallace rather than guys drafted much higher like DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry or Kenny Stills, the latter of whom Miami acquired from New Orleans.
The Dolphins used first-, second- and third-round picks, respectively, to acquire those three players, but it's been the 2012 seventh-round pick who currently leads the team in receiving yards, yards per catch and receiving touchdowns.
The Texans' depth in the secondary will be a little thin Sunday with the injuries to Kareem Jackson, Lonnie Ballentine and Quintin Demps, so the players behind them will have a tough assignment this week.
Blocking Cameron Wake
The four-time Pro Bowl defensive end had an extremely slow start to the season, with zero sacks through the Dolphins' first five games, but he unleashed hell last week against Tennessee with four sacks against the Titans.
Wake didn't score a single positive grade from Pro Football Focus over those five games without a sack but posted the highest score in the league for 4-3 defensive ends in Week 6. His score of 9.8 nearly doubled the second-highest grade of 5.1 from Cameron Jordan of New Orleans.
Despite all the injuries to their offensive line, the Texans rank in the top half of the league in sacks allowed with 10 through six games. They only gave up one last week to Jacksonville, but the battle between Wake and the offensive tackle matched up with him will be a key matchup.
Texans X-Factor of the Week
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Texans X-Factor of the Week: Ben Jones
Ben Jones has quietly had a very good season with the sixth-best pass block rating among centers from Pro Football Focus, but he will face a stiff challenge this week from four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.
With a personal slow start that coincided with the Dolphins losing three of their first four games, Suh still doesn't have a sack on the season but does rank fourth in pass rush rating among 4-3 defensive tackles and is tied for fifth with Aaron Donald in quarterback hurries, according to Pro Football Focus.
Suh won't line up directly over Jones on every play, but the Texans' fourth-year center out of Georgia has struggled against powerful bull-rushers in the past. Their listed size on Pro-Football-Reference.com is nearly identical, but Suh clearly seems like the stronger player.
Jones is smart with his positioning, footwork and hands most of the time but lacks the raw strength to push defenders off the ball in one-on-one situations.
He wasn't the only player to get beat on this play, but Jones struggles in short-yardage situations with allowing defenders to cross his face and penetrate the backfield, like when the Texans went for it on 4th-and-1 midway through the third quarter against Jacksonville.
The play lost three yards, as Arian Foster had no chance with several Jaguars, including linebacker Paul Posluszny, in the backfield to make the easy stop.
This problem isn't isolated to just this last game, as we saw similar plays happen earlier this season and during an infamous stretch of seven goal-line plays during the preseason game against San Francisco.
In relation to that problem, Jones ranks considerably lower in the run block rating from Pro Football Focus at 25th with a minus-3.9 grade.
Jones has made steady improvement year by year and looks much more comfortable at center than he did guard, but any flaws that still remain could be exposed by a beast like Suh.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Texans 20
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Timing is everything in sports, and unfortunately for the Houston Texans this week, the timing of this game isn't on their side.
Yes, they did win a lopsided game on the road in Florida last week, but don't forget they actually trailed Jacksonville going into the fourth quarter. The Texans played great in the fourth, but after the coaching change, Miami isn't a team they'll be able to beat on the road with a one-quarter performance.
If this game had been scheduled earlier in the year before Joe Philbin was fired, the Texans would have likely won, but the Dolphins have found a spark under Dan Campbell.
Yes, it's only been one game, and it was against a lousy Tennessee team, but the momentum of the change at head coach and the confidence gained from their win last week should carry them through at least this first home game since the switch was made.
The Texans certainly have a chance if they can force Ryan Tannehill into a few mistakes and Brian Hoyer avoids making a few of his own, but the Dolphins are rightfully favored to win.
A Houston win wouldn't be a surprise or an upset, but I'll take Miami to win a close game.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Texans 20
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
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