Falcons vs. Saints: What's the Game Plan for New Orleans?
The New Orleans Saints will host the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South divisional clash on Thursday night, and head coach Sean Payton’s Saints will look to hand the visiting Falcons their first loss of the season.
New Orleans (1-4) is coming off a drubbing at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, while the 5-0 Falcons are just a few days removed from an overtime victory over the Washington Redskins.
Atlanta is perhaps the most complete team New Orleans has faced yet, and the Saints will have to perform well in all phases in order to pull out a win.
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Let’s take a look at some of the things they might do come Thursday night.
Offense
First-year Falcons head coach Dan Quinn made quite the mark on the NFL during his successful stint as the defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks.
In an era filled with complex offenses and equally complicated defenses, Quinn went against the grain and implemented a simplistic defensive scheme. The results speak for themselves, as the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl in two consecutive seasons behind stellar defensive play.
More dependent on acquiring the right personnel for particular positions than complexity of scheme, Quinn’s defenses don’t require many pre-snap calls and don’t call for much disguising. There’s no confusion from his players regarding their responsibilities, and they’re able to play an intense, physical brand of football.
Through five games in 2015, the Falcons defense has displayed noticeable improvement from last season, when Atlanta fielded the league’s No. 32-ranked defense.
Establishing the run and then using play action to hit the big play is the ideal way to beat this aggressive defense, but it’s also important for quarterback Drew Brees to not be careless with the football.
Getting the ground game going won’t be easy, however, since the Falcons have a solid front four in nose tackle Paul Soliai, 3-technique Ra’Shede Hageman, defensive end Tyson Jackson and "LEO" Vic Beasley.
Look for Saints fullback Austin Johnson, who was inactive last week, to return to the lineup and lead the way for Mark Ingram out of the I-formation.
When New Orleans takes to the air, it will be facing a variety of coverages, but the one that Quinn prefers most is the Cover 3. This zone coverage requires two outside corners and a free safety to each be responsible for one deep third of the field.
There are several ways to attack the Cover 3, but the most proven way is a play the Saints have historically used quite often, and that’s four verticals. This calls for four receivers to run deep vertical routes down the field.
Atlanta’s two outside corners will take the two outside receivers. This leaves the two middle receivers—one of which would ideally be Brandin Cooks—to fly down the middle of the field and attack the seams of the zone, thus putting the free safety in the difficult position of having to account for two receivers.
In Seattle, Quinn enjoyed having the supremely talented Earl Thomas as his free safety. Now, he has Ricardo Allen, a second-year pro who’s still learning the position.
It would make a lot of sense for the Saints to put pressure on Allen and force him to make plays.
In order to be successful with the vertical game, Brees needs to deliver a crisp, accurate ball, and he must receive adequate protection.
The Saints have struggled in pass protection for the majority of the season, and their offensive line is still banged up. According to the team's official injury report on NewOrleansSaints.com, left tackle Terron Armstead is doubtful for the game, although guard Jahri Evans is probable.
Like all zone coverages, there are holes in the Cover 3.
Another way New Orleans can attack it is through the use of intermediate crossing routes in the middle of the field. The Saints receivers must be sure to extend their routes deep enough down the field to get behind the Atlanta linebackers while staying in front of the three deep cover men.
The Saints will have a number of options against the Falcons' simplified defense, but their offensive success on Thursday night will be more based on execution than play-calling.
In order to come out on top, New Orleans must execute well, keep careless mistakes to a minimum and eliminate turnovers.
Defense
Under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons' passing game has excelled thus far in 2015.
The Matt Ryan-Julio Jones combination has proven to be devastating to opposing defenses. Jones racked up 440 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his first three games, as opposing secondaries seemingly had no answer for him.
The star receiver has battled injuries throughout the past week, but he’s been upgraded to probable, according to the Falcons official injury report on AtlantaFalcons.com.
If Jones indeed plays, it's almost a given that the Falcons will test the Saints secondary in the early going in hopes of silencing the Mercedes-Benz Superdome crowd with a big play.
Jones isn’t the only weapon the New Orleans defense will have to deal with, however, as running back Devonta Freeman is flourishing in Shanahan’s zone run-blocking schemes. Freeman has rushed for 362 yards in the past three games at an average of just over five yards per carry.
Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan could opt to bring up strong safety Kenny Vaccaro into the box to help slow down Freeman, but with Jones on the outside, that would put New Orleans at a big disadvantage in the secondary.
Instead, the Saints will likely have to rely on their linebackers, namely rookie Stephone Anthony, to hold Freeman in check.
On passing downs, New Orleans absolutely must pressure the quarterback. This has been easier said than done this season for Ryan’s group, as the Saints’ lack of a consistent pass rush is one of the big reasons for their 1-4 start.
As is Ryan’s preference, look for the Saints to vary their defensive alignments in this one, since they can’t allow Matt Ryan to get comfortable with just one or two defensive looks.
Prediction
Rob Ryan’s No. 32-ranked defense will likely come out and play inspired football in this one, and it’s not out of bounds to think the unit could come up with a turnover at an opportune moment.
The trio of Matt Ryan, Jones and Freeman is a potent one, however, and it will be extremely difficult for the Saints’ young group to have consistent success on Thursday night.
On offense, the Saints may well be able to attack the seams and connect on a few downfield throws against the Falcons’ No. 29-ranked pass defense.
New Orleans’ chief concern, however, is its ability to protect Brees. It’s doubtful the Saints can provide him with the consistent protection he’ll need to be able to keep pace with Ryan and Co.
New Orleans will reach the end zone a couple of times, but Atlanta will get there more often.
Falcons 28, Saints 20
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