Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without running back Jamaal Charles for the first time this season when they visit the Minnesota Vikings off their bye week. Charles suffered a torn ACL in last week’s 18-17 loss to the Chicago Bears, but Kansas City has enjoyed some success against the Vikings, with wins in four of the past five meetings.

Point spread: Vikings opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.6-18.8 Vikings

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are underrated in this spot at Minnesota and will simply need to contain Vikings running back Adrian Peterson to have a shot to win here. While that is certainly not an easy task, they have the defensive personnel to stack the line and also pressure second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who remains unproven at this point.

Offensively, it will be very hard to replace Charles, but head coach Andy Reid has done a masterful job of plugging in new players when starters get injured. Knile Davis has filled in admirably in the past, but Charcandrick West is expected to play a key role as well. Reid will be able make the most of both players' strengths in Charles’ absence.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota has seen how opposing defenses have pressured Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith, sacking him 21 times, which ranks second in the league. Smith will now have even more pressure on him to make plays without Charles, who was his safety valve in the passing game as well as a breakaway threat every time he touched the ball.

The Vikings are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games under second-year head coach Mike Zimmer, as he has instilled a competitive attitude and changed the culture in Minnesota. Since the season-opening 20-3 loss on the road to the San Francisco 49ers, the team has covered three in a row following a 23-20 setback against the Denver Broncos away from home before the bye as seven-point underdogs.

Smart pick

The Chiefs have yet to show they are the same team that had an easy time in their season-opening win over the Houston Texans, failing to cover the spread each time in losing four straight. That will not change here against the Vikings, who will be refreshed off their bye and still believe they have a solid shot to make the playoffs this year.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs in October.

The Chiefs are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games.

The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.