5 Key Matchups for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6

The week of the annual Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots meeting is generally met with anticipation. 

For Colts fans in 2015, not so much. 

A disappointing start to the season combined with the Patriots' triumphant victory in Deflategate appeals and subsequent dominance to start the year has resulted in more apprehension for Week 6 than hopeful excitement. It's certainly understandable, given the cloud of uncertainty around Indianapolis. 

Will quarterback Andrew Luck return to the field after missing the last two weeks with an unspecified shoulder injury? Will the Colts offense make much-needed adjustments to reach the levels of offseason hype? Can head coach Chuck Pagano avoid getting thoroughly outcoached by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick once again? 

Will any of it even matter, as the Colts have been manhandled by the Patriots in four consecutive matchups? 

The cliche of "any given Sunday" exists for a reason, however. The Colts defeating the Patriots would certainly be one of the biggest upsets of the season, but stranger things have happened. 

In order for Indianapolis to come anywhere near that goal, though, there are several key matchups that they must win, or at least make things difficult for New England. 

Andrew Luck and Pep Hamilton vs. Themselves

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The Colts offense sputtered out of the gates and then skidded to a halt to start the season, which somehow coincided with an 0-2 start. The team managed to get some offense going late in Week 3, enough to come back and defeat the Tennessee Titans in what may have amounted to a season-saving fourth quarter. 

With Matt Hasselbeck at the helm over the last two weeks, the Colts have found some offensive consistency, particularly against the Houston Texans. The Colts did so with a much quicker offense that also included more balance on the ground, which was aided by Hasselbeck's limited nature and a more favorable game script. 

But that success was greatly influenced by the opposing defenses. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Texans have been awful this season, both ranking in the bottom five in Football Outsider's DVOA against the pass, and bottom 10 overall. 

Still, there were elements to the team's adjusted offense that worked better, especially given the Colts' talent deficiencies on the offensive line. 

As Luck (hopefully) returns, the Colts must figure out their offensive identity. Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton have almost been their own worst enemy over the first few weeks, each trying to do too much at times. 

Against the Patriots, the Colts will need their offense to be firing on all cylinders to have a chance at keeping up with New England.

Darius Butler vs. Julian Edelman

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While Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are getting headlines, Julian Edelman continues to be a devastating weapon for the New England Patriots. 

One of the more unlikely stories in the NFL, Edelman is a perfect fit for what New England wants to do in this offense, particularly with Brady at this stage of his career. Edelman has 34 catches in just four games, with 19 of those going for first downs. 

While you would assume that the shifty slot receiver is a third-down target monster, he has given the Patriots more value early in the down sequence, picking up 15 of his first downs on first or second down, helping the Patriots move the ball down the field consistently without getting in dangerous situations. 

The Colts' only hope against Edelman is slot cornerback Darius Butler. Attempting to put the Colts linebackers or safeties on Edelman is suicide, and letting Tom Brady pick zone apart doesn't seem very pleasant. 

But Butler has struggled lately. He doesn't need to be dominant, just good enough to pick up a few pass breakups to steal a drive or two from the Patriots, much like he did against Wes Welker and the Denver Broncos during the Colts' win back in 2013. Welker had seven catches for 96 yards that day, but Butler got a few PBUs early on as the Colts got out to an early lead. 

Colts Linebackers vs. Patriots Running Backs

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The Colts defensive line was blasted by fans and media after the team's most recent loss in New England, as the Patriots ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns, the latest in a long line of rushing embarrassments for Indianapolis. 

But the linebackers were the bigger problem for the Colts defense, as the team's second-level defenders struggled with missed tackles and poor positioning all night, just as they had in the team's regular-season battle. 

The Patriots bring back LeGarrette Blount for this matchup in Indianapolis, who ran for 146 yards back in January to go along with three touchdowns, but the bigger nightmare for Indianapolis is Dion Lewis. 

Lewis stepped into the starting role when Blount was suspended to start the season and has been incredibly impressive since, continuing to hold off Blount as the RB1 in New England even after his return. 

With just 36 rushing attempts on the season, Lewis hasn't played the "closer" role for New England like Blount has, but if it gets to a blowout in the second half where Blount is getting major carries, the Colts will have already lost the game.

Lewis will likely be the main issue early in the game, as he's been incredibly elusive to start the season, leading the league Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating with 25 missed tackles forced. Lewis also ranks second in the league with an average of 3.36 yards after contact. 

Because of his ability to contribute in the passing game as well, the Colts linebackers (which have historically struggled against running backs and tight ends in the passing tame) will have their hands full. 

Everybody vs. Rob Gronkowski

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It may take a village to raise a child, but it takes a few villages to even slow down Rob Gronkowski. 

Gronkowski might be the most devastating offensive weapon in all of football, so it should be no surprise that the Colts have had little success in stopping the former University of Arizona product. 

The Colts have allowed Gronkowski to score a touchdown in all three of the matchups in which he's played, and he's totaled 236 yards in those three games. Gronkowski has been devastating to start this season, averaging 94 yards and a touchdown through four games. 

Still, Gronk looked a bit more human in last week's win over Dallas, catching just four passes for 67 yards. Can the Colts copy Dallas' strategy in Week 6? 

Well, that might be tough. Dallas allowed cornerback Byron Jones to shadow Gronkowski one-on-one for most of the game, and Gronkowski struggled to get separation. While he did get his patented contested catches, he wasn't finding huge gaps in the secondary. 

The problem for Indianapolis is that they don't have a Byron Jones, one of the most athletic defensive backs to ever go through the combine. They have Vontae Davis, who is relatively athletic, but doesn't do as well when he's asked to move around the middle of the field. They have rookie safety Clayton Geathers, who is well-sized but doesn't have near the agility of a guy like Jones. 

In reality, the Colts will have to use a multilayered attack against Gronkowski, using both man and zone coverage. They'll have to get physical with him at the line of scrimmage and not allow him to get free releases to build up a head of steam. 

But in the end, they won't be able to stop him. If they can slow Gronkowski down a bit, that'll be a win. 

Chuck Pagano vs. Bill Belichick

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This might be the most important matchup for Indianapolis, even in a game filled with what seems to be crucial matchups. 

Unfortunately, it might also be the most lopsided one. 

Belichick is the most genius coach of his generation, in both pregame preparation and in-game adjustments. There is a reason the Patriots have been at the top of the league for 15 season despite having poor drafting position in the vast majority of those years. 

Meanwhile, Chuck Pagano is not well-known for his in-game coaching prowess. He's done a lot of good things in Indianapolis and is exceptional at getting his players motivated and getting them to buy into the team's goals and methods. 

But the Colts have often looked unprepared to start this season, a theme that can be seen in past years' big matchups as well, and a midgame battle between Pagano and Belichick doesn't bode well for Indianapolis. 

The Colts have been thoroughly outcoached in the last few matchups with New England, and nobody expects Pagano to get the best of the future Hall of Famer this time. Still, if Pagano and his staff can at least come up with a few unexpected wrinkles that actually work, it will be a huge improvement from prior games, and they may have a shot in this one.