Bills at Titans: Full Buffalo Game Preview
The Buffalo Bills, hoping to recover from last week’s disappointing loss against the New York Giants, host Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The game marks a crucial juncture for the Bills (2-2), who entered the season with legitimate playoff aspirations but have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball.
Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 pick in the 2015 NFL draft, has Titans fans drooling after a hot start to his debut season. Mariota ranks among the league’s best quarterbacks in most statistical categories, including yards, touchdowns and passer rating, and has demonstrated much of the poise and leadership that made him such a coveted prospect.
The Titans are coming off a bye in Week 4. The previous week, Tennessee recovered from an early 14-0 deficit against Indianapolis and took a 13-point lead in the second half. But the team surrendered 21 second-half points, missed a critical last-minute two-point conversion attempt and ended up losing, 35-33.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has alternated between inspiringly dominant and discouragingly lackluster.
Impressive victories in Weeks 1 and 3, against the Colts and Dolphins, respectively, have been undermined by disappointing performances against New England and the Giants. And while injuries have decimated the team, the Bills have consistently shot themselves in the foot with penalties and have struggled to provide first-year quarterback Tyrod Taylor with consistent run support and pocket protection.
On Sunday, two young, but talented, quarterbacks will face two of the league’s staunchest defensive units. Fans should anticipate a low-scoring affair.
Game Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
News and Notes
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Buffalo made a series of unheralded-but-important roster decisions this week. Most notably, as ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak reported, the team signed former Indianapolis running back Dan “Boom” Herron. The move is obviously an attempt to shore up what has been an inconsistent and injury-riddled Buffalo backfield, and Herron will offer valuable depth on Sunday.
However, it’s worth noting that at this point in the season, the Bills running backs corps is far from where Buffalo fans hoped it would be. I'll discuss the specific injuries on the next slide, but suffice it to say that a team with LeSean McCoy—and the surprisingly effective rookie Karlos Williams—did not expect to see Boom Herron taking the field in Week 5.
If the Bills’ playoff hopes are to be realized, this backfield needs to get healthy quickly and find some consistency.
Other signees the Bills announced this week include veteran kicker Billy Cundiff and wide receiver Denarius Moore. Cundiff’s presence warrants particular attention, as Buffalo coach Rex Ryan has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the Bills’ kicking performance.
Starting kicker Dan Carpenter has missed three field goals and an extra point so far in 2015, and the Bills released kickoff specialist Jordan Gay to make room for Cundiff. If nothing else, the signing should light a fire under Carpenter, and the Bills need all the offensive juice they can get.
On an entirely unrelated (but interesting) note, the Titans are in the middle of a unique stretch in the NFL season.
Right now, Tennessee is entering the second game of a five-week stretch that includes zero away games; in other words, in a five-week period, the team's schedule includes four home games and a bye, but no away games. The last time that happened to a Titans team was in 1967, according to the team’s official website. Tennessee will look to take advantage over the next few weeks.
Injury Update
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Ever since the preseason began, Buffalo’s roster has constantly been in flux. It seems that every week, a healthy player gets hurt and a hurt player returns to action. This week is no different.
The biggest injury-related story of the week is Williams, a rookie running back who has anchored Buffalo’s running game in place of the laboring McCoy. McCoy has battled hamstring injuries since training camp and, when he’s been on the field, has not resembled his usual dynamic self.
Williams has four touchdowns in four games, but he sustained a concussion in last week’s loss and did not practice on Wednesday, according to the team’s official injury report.
No official announcement has been made as to Williams’ status on Sunday.
Along with Karlos Williams, McCoy, wideouts Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, safety Bacarri Rambo and defensive tackle Kyle Williams also did not practice Wednesday. Again, no official announcements have been made, but Kyle Williams, Harvin and Rambo appear likely to play Sunday, while McCoy’s presence seems improbable.
On a more positive note, safety Aaron Williams—who was carted off the field with a neck injury in Week 2—appears well on his way in rehab. His status remains up in the air, but it’s entirely possible we’ll see him on the field on Sunday.
Key Matchup
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Tennessee QB Mariota vs. Buffalo Defensive Line
Despite his team's losing record, Mariota has been entirely solid in his rookie campaign. He threw four touchdowns and won Player of the Week honors in Week 1. While he struggled to 209 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 2 loss to Cleveland, he recovered to throw 367 yards and two touchdowns in a spirited Week 3 comeback effort.
Mariota is nimble, athletic and poised. But he’s also young, and he has yet to play a truly top-tier NFL defense. The entire Bills defense should represent an upgrade over the talent Mariota has faced so far. And Buffalo’s defensive line will be most critical to a Bills win.
The Bills defensive line had its worst performance of the year last week, managing zero sacks and just one quarterback hit on Giants quarterback Eli Manning. That cannot happen this week. If Mariota keeps plays alive, scrambles for third-down conversions and completes two or three long shots downfield, it will be a long day for the Bills and their fans.
But if Mariota is contained in the pocket and forced to make tough throws into coverage, the Bills secondary will have a field day. And luckily, the Bills have plenty of talent—it just wasn’t on display against Manning and the Giants.
Star tackle Marcell Dareus has labored his way to a slow start in 2015 but remains among the league’s most talented pass-rushers. He’s due for a breakout game (especially given the six-year, $108 million contract extension he signed earlier this year). Kyle Williams has been superb. And sixth-year defensive end Jerry Hughes is a matchup nightmare for second-year Tennessee tackle Taylor Lewan.
The biggest problem for the Bills here is that Mariota is nothing like any of the quarterbacks Buffalo has faced.
Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck thrive on accuracy, quick releases and superb pocket awareness. Miami signal-caller Ryan Tannehill is more mobile than any of those three, but he is still an upright-in-the-pocket-style quarterback. Mariota, on the other hand, loves to move around in the pocket, and routinely uses his agility to extend plays.
Ultimately, this matchup will probably decide the game. Penalties and offensive turnovers notwithstanding, Buffalo must create pressure and disrupt Tennessee’s youthful star.
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X-Factors
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Penalties...and Boobie Dixon
Let’s begin with penalties. I've written several times about Buffalo’s Achilles' heel, and last week was the team’s worst performance yet.
In Week 1, the Bills destroyed Luck and the Colts, 27-14. That victory overshadowed the 113 penalty yards Buffalo gave away. The next week, Brady and the Patriots destroyed Buffalo, 40-32. Perhaps unwisely, most observers appeared more concerned by the 40 points the Bills allowed than by the 140 penalty yards they surrendered.
And while the team gave up just 40 penalty yards in its Week 3 victory over Miami, Buffalo was absolutely atrocious in last week’s loss to the Giants: The Bills were called for 17 penalties, costing the team 135 yards.
There really isn’t a lot to say. Buffalo can’t expect to win when the opposing team gets 100-plus yards for free. The problem has finally caught Coach Ryan’s attention, as the coach evidently made his team do push-ups this week each time a player committed a penalty in practice. Here’s to hoping Buffalo cleans up their play.
On a separate note, Ryan asserted earlier this week that running back Anthony "Boobie" Dixon, who has eight carries and zero yards rushing this year, will bear the brunt of Buffalo’s carries on Sunday.
This is a textbook “X-Factor.” Nobody knows what to expect, but nobody is expecting much. And Dixon’s performance may make or break the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo’s defense is talented enough to win games on its own, but if Mariota manages to keep things close, the Bills’ ability to convert red-zone appearances—and third-and-short situations—will be the difference.
Last year, Dixon ran for 432 yards on 105 carries, good for a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. And perhaps even more importantly, he has an extraordinarily healthy track record: Dixon has appeared in all 16 games for the past five seasons.
If he can stay healthy and average four yards per carry, the Bills can count themselves as incredibly lucky. If he’s ineffective, and injuries to McCoy and Karlos Williams continue to be problematic, Buffalo is going to struggle.
Prediction
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Bills 24, Titans 14
The Titans have averaged 35 points per game in 2015, and that says a lot about their rookie quarterback and his abilities. But he’s facing the best defensive unit he has ever played. The Bills are coming off a hugely dispiriting loss in a season loaded with playoff expectations. They know this is a must-win game.
Mariota is in for a rough weekend.
Buffalo cannot kill itself with penalties. And if McCoy and Karlos Williams do not play, the Bills running game will almost certainly leave a lot to be desired. But Buffalo’s defense should rattle Mariota and Co. My more specific prediction? The Bills will force at least three turnovers on Sunday.
Here’s the more important thing: For the second straight week, the Bills find themselves facing an entirely winnable game with big implications. Buffalo fans should think about the team’s upcoming schedule: games against the Titans, Bengals and Jaguars, followed by consecutive AFC East games against the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots.
The Bengals are undefeated right now. So are the Patriots. The Jets are turning more heads every week. If the Bills want to make the playoffs, they’ll probably need to win at least two of those matchups. But those games won’t matter if Buffalo loses to Tennessee and/or Jacksonville.
Buffalo has enough talent to beat anyone, even with an injury-depleted running back group. Mariota will keep Tennessee alive, but the Bills have this one.
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