Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns aren't exactly known for being road warriors, but they are 5-3 against the spread over their last eight games on the road. Can Cleveland come up with a rebound effort when it visits sunny San Diego Sunday afternoon?

Point spread: The Chargers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.2-13.3 Chargers

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland is coming off a 27-20 loss at home to the Oakland Raiders, but it showed some pluck by rallying from a 17-point deficit to within one score with six minutes to go. The Browns then began their final drive at their own 2-yard line and drove into Raiders territory in the final minute, only to turn the ball over on a Josh McCown interception.

Cleveland would have been even closer had it not been forced to settle for a field goal from a 1st-and-goal situation at the Oakland 1-yard line late in the second quarter.

On the day, McCown, back in the lineup after missing a week with a concussion, hit on 28 of 49 throws for 341 yards and two scores against one pick, while tight end Gary Barnidge and wide receiver Brian Hartline combined to catch 11 balls for 201 yards.

The Browns opened this season with a loss at MetLife Stadium against the New York Jets but bounced back in Week 2 to beat the Tennessee Titans, 28-14. Cleveland might be ripe for another bounce-back effort this week.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers are coming off a 31-14 loss in Minnesota against the Vikings last week, and it's tough trying to put lipstick on that pig. San Diego only trailed by a field goal at halftime, and down 24-7 early in the fourth quarter, the Chargers drove into the Vikings' red zone. But a Phillip Rivers interception went 91 yards the other way for Minnesota's final score, ending any hopes of a rally.

The Chargers would rather think about their season-opening 33-28 victory over the Detroit Lions, when they rallied from an early deficit by scoring 30 unanswered points. And in Week 2, they gave the undefeated Bengals a very tough game in Cincinnati.

If San Diego can get off to a quicker start, get the running game going, take some of the pressure off Rivers and avoid the turnovers, it's got a good chance of getting back to .500 Sunday.

Smart pick

Simply put, San Diego probably shouldn't be favored by this much over anybody. It's still the same old Chargers; they can't run the ball, often fall behind and rely on Rivers to do almost everything. Meanwhile, Cleveland, while not exactly a playoff contender at the moment, has the ability to win the ground game in this contest. And that would go a long way toward deciding which team covers this spread.

Betting trends

The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.

The Chargers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.

The Chargers are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games as home favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.