Bold College Football Predictions for Month of October
With the heart of conference play approaching, the only thing we know about the 2015 college football season is that we still don't know anything.
If we did, we wouldn't have dropped our jaws last week at Utah beating Oregon 62-20. We would have expected Toledo and Texas Tech to upset Arkansas. We would have known to not tout Auburn as the rightful SEC favorite (sigh).
With that in mind, let's ingest what we saw in September, look ahead to October and offer some bold predictions. The seven statements that follow aren't things I assure will happen; they're things that sound far-fetched at first, even though they're not.
It wouldn't be insane if they come true.
Michigan Beats Michigan State
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Here are three things that happened. Deduce from them what you will:
- Utah beat Michigan by seven points at Utah.
- Michigan State beat Oregon by three points at Michigan State.
- Utah beat Oregon by 42 points at Oregon.
See what I'm getting at?
It's a strange world where picking Michigan to beat Michigan State is bold, but with Sparty having won six of the past seven meetings, including four wins by an average of 19.5 points since 2010, this would qualify as a major upset.
Only right now, Michigan is playing better. Sparty is the No. 2 team in the rankings, but it has not been the No. 2 team on the field. It's 0-4 against the spread and has been outgained in consecutive weeks by Air Force (down its starting quarterback) and Central Michigan.
Jim Harbaugh's team is ahead of schedule and has a potential top-five defense. The offense is a work in progress, but it's good enough to beat a depleted and shockingly average Michigan State back seven, which has struggled in the secondary since losing coordinator Pat Narduzzi.
Leonard Fournette Outproduces September Numbers
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The scariest part of Leonard Fournette's September performance is who it came against.
LSU hasn't played any cupcakes—it scheduled one, but lightning canceled the Week 1 game against McNeese State. Instead, Fournette has posted 631 yards on 73 carries against Auburn and Mississippi State of the SEC and Syracuse of the ACC.
Are any of those defensive powerhouses? No. Mississippi State is the best of the bunch, grading around an A-minus or B-plus for power-conference schools, while Auburn and Syracuse rate closer to Cs. But they're all still power-conference defenses. They all still have legitimate power-conference players.
And Fournette still made them all look like high schoolers.
So now what? Well, now Fournette gets going. LSU's October slate includes games against Eastern Michigan and Western Kentucky—the cupcakes Fournette was cheated in September. It also includes a road trip to South Carolina, which at this point might as well be a nonconference cupcake.
The only difficult run defense Fournette faces is Florida. Last year against the Gators, Fournette posted his first career 140-yard game. That came when he wasn't even playing that well, and it also took place in Gainesville. This year's meeting comes in Baton Rouge.
Fournette's about to further demolish box scores.
Duke Becomes the Trendy Playoff Sleeper
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Duke's case for making the College Football Playoff should have ended, theoretically, when it lost at home to Northwestern.
Only now Northwestern sits at 4-0 with wins over the Blue Devils and Stanford. It's ranked No. 16 in the country. If the Wildcats keep winning—not necessarily running the table but playing like a team it's OK to have lost to—the Blue Devils can still make a run.
And based on their upcoming schedule, they might.
Duke beat Georgia Tech convincingly last week and has no ranked teams left on the schedule. Here is all that stands between it and 11-1:
- Oct. 3: vs. Boston College
- Oct. 10: at Army
- Oct. 17: Bye
- Oct. 24: at Virginia Tech
- Oct. 31: vs. Miami
- Nov. 7: at North Carolina
- Nov. 14: vs. Pittsburgh
- Nov. 21: at Virginia
- Nov. 28: at Wake Forest
If the Blue Devils sweep their October games, as this bold prediction thinks they will, it won't take long to start piecing their chances together.
Even with a poor strength of schedule, the Dukies have what (hopefully) counts as a quality loss and a chance to play Florida State or Clemson on a neutral field in the ACC title game. If they beat Virginia Tech and Miami, they'll have momentum, too.
I don't think Duke will make the playoff, but I do think we might start talking about it. And I think that conversation starts in October.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Every Pac-12 Team Has a Loss
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There are three undefeated teams left in the Pac-12: UCLA, Utah and Cal.
The Bruins and Utes don't meet until November, and if they're both undefeated when they get there, that game will be one of the biggest of the season.
But they won't both be undefeated when they get there.
Utah, in addition to hosting Cal, has a road trip to USC at the end of October. UCLA, also in addition to hosting Cal, has a road trip to Stanford in October. The Trojans can beat any team in the conference when they're playing well, and the Cardinal have beaten UCLA seven straight times.
Cal, meanwhile, has those road trips to Utah and UCLA, along with a home game against USC. It won't emerge from this month undefeated either.
The Pac-12's depth might cost it a playoff spot.
Al Golden Doesn't Survive the Month
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Miami head coach (for now) Al Golden got off to an inauspicious start in October, losing Thursday night at Cincinnati, 34-23.
The "Fire Al Golden" banner that's been trailing the Hurricanes all season made the trip up to the Midwest, and that was before Golden lost his first game of the year to an AAC team.
Things might get worse before they get better. In fact, they almost definitely will. Cincinnati is a strong non-power-five opponent, but it's still the weakest team on Miami's October slate. The Hurricanes also play at Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Clemson and at Duke.
They'll probably be favored over Virginia Tech, but even that game is a tossup. In the other games, they're likely to be underdogs. If Miami leaves the month with 4-4 record or worse, it's hard to see how Golden keeps his job.
He entered the year on the hottest seat in college football, per Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports, and it's already gotten hotter in October.
West Virginia's Defense Stays Hot
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It's easy to look at West Virginia's defensive numbers, divert attention to its schedule and decide it's overrated. Decide that once the the Mountaineers face Big 12 opponents, those numbers will inflate.
Here's saying they won't.
Dana Holgorsen's team has, perversely, built one of the best defenses in college football, and it doesn't look like a fluke. It ranks No. 2 against the run and No. 1 against the pass through four weeks, per Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted S&P+ ratings, and just held Maryland, a Big Ten opponent that won seven games last year, to six points.
Will the numbers look as good after October? Probably not. The Mountaineers play Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU during the next month. Even if they stay hot (which this prediction says they will), they will cede yards and points. Against those offenses, anybody would.
But I do think the Mountaineers will acquit themselves well against those opponents and give their offense a chance to steal the win. They returned 10 starters and run a distinct 3-3-5 defense that's built to maximize speed and create plays.
"We used to have a unique (offensive) system at Texas Tech," Holgorsen, a Mike Leach disciple, told George Schroeder of USA Today. "If you look at what we’re doing offensively compared to everybody else, we’re pretty similar, so being able to be a little different on defense may give us some kind of advantage."
Safety Karl Joseph and linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski are the stars, but the supporting cast is deep, experienced, talented and tailored for the system. Start to learn names such as KJ Dillon, Kyle Rose, Daryl Worley and Al-Rasheed Benton. It's your obligation as a college football fan.
They make up what might be the best defense in America.
Memphis Beats Ole Miss
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First six picks not bold enough? Fine. Let's get bold.
Memphis hung with Ole Miss last season, trailing by just four points in the fourth quarter. That game was in Oxford, while this game is in Memphis.
Last year's Tigers defense was better, but they're offense was worse. Quarterback Paxton Lynch, a 6'7" specimen with a rocket arm and impressive mobility, has come into his own as a junior and ranks No. 5 in the country with a 188.24 QB rating. He's thrown for 1,230 yards on 113 passes (10.9 YPA) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
If Memphis wins this game, he'll become a Heisman candidate.
For real.
Ole Miss is a better all-around team and would win this game nine times out of 10. But if you want a bold prediction—something most people think can't happen, when in truth it's possible but just unlikely—look no further than this nonconference matchup.
Memphis head coach Justin Fuente will land a power-five job next year regardless. Win here and he might receive an offer by the following Monday.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
