Grading Every Preseason Top 25 Team's Performance Through 4 Weeks
Preseason college football polls are an inexact science, at best. They’re almost entirely based on assumptions. How will Team X respond to its new coach? Will Team Z’s new offensive line hold up under pressure? Will Team Y’s schedule prove too difficult for contention?
There are a lot of things that we just don’t know. Four weeks into the 2015 season, we’ve found out at least a little about teams across the nation following three to four games (depending on the team) of actual, live action.
The polls have responded accordingly. This week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll looks pretty different from the preseason poll released in August, with eight new entrants in the poll as September draws to a close.
Here’s a look at how each team in the preseason Top 25 has fared. We’ve assigned letter grades to each team based on their performance to date. Note: The teams are listed in order of their standing in the preseason poll, not this week’s poll.
25. Tennessee
1 of 25
Entering 2015, Tennessee hoped to build on 2014’s 7-6 record and the program’s first bowl bid since 2010, a season capped by a 45-28 TaxSlayer Bowl thumping of Iowa. The Volunteers returned 17 starters from a young roster that only figured to improve with the addition of a strong 2015 recruiting class.
Four games in, it hasn’t happened. With equally miserable Arkansas up next, the Vols are 2-2, 0-1 in SEC play. Both defeats have been excruciating. Tennessee blew a 17-point second-half lead and fell to Oklahoma in double overtime, which was bad enough. Saturday was worse. Leading 26-14 with just over 10 minutes left, the Vols looked on the cusp of their first win over Florida since 2004.
But the Gators got off the mat for a pair of late touchdowns, including a 63-yard Antonio Callaway catch-and-run score with 1:26 left. A potential game-winning 55-yard field goal sailed just right of the goalpost as time expired.
This can’t be classified as anything but a bitter disappointment for Butch Jones’ roster.
Grade: D
24. Missouri
2 of 25
In each of the last two seasons, Missouri has established itself as one of the nation’s most underrated teams. The Tigers put together a pair of 11-win seasons with consecutive SEC East crowns but didn’t get a lot of love this preseason, landing at No. 24.
Finally, the pollsters have been proved correct with their caution. Following a 21-13 loss to an improving Kentucky team, the Tigers fell out of the AP Top 25 Sunday morning. It wasn’t necessarily a surprise. Missouri was fortunate to be 3-0 following a 27-20 win at Arkansas State and an ugly 9-6 home win over UConn.
Gary Pinkel’s team has struggled to move the ball on the ground, averaging 117 rushing yards per game, and junior quarterback Maty Mauk has been inconsistent, throwing for 654 yards with six touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 51.8 percent of his passes. He’s also beginning to lose time to backup Drew Lock.
Missouri is still a bowl team, but the Tigers’ SEC East reign will likely come to an end this fall.
Grade: C
23. Boise State
3 of 25
Boise State began this season with serious momentum from 2014’s 12-win season that was capped by a Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona. Although the Broncos had to replace starting quarterback Grant Hedrick and star tailback Jay Ajayi, they did return 17 starters with hopes of earning another "Group of Five" berth in the New Year’s Six bowls.
A month in, that task remains achievable but it won’t be easy. The Broncos improved to 3-1 following a 56-14 romp at Virginia, and also own a season-opening win over Pac-12 foe Washington. But they’re playing with their second quarterback of the season (new starter Brett Rypien) following sophomore Ryan Finley’s season-ending broken ankle.
A 35-24 loss at BYU was disappointing, but the Broncos have responded by scoring 50-plus each of the last two weeks. They’ll need more impressive performances in their Mountain West slate to convince the College Football Playoff selection committee that they’re the best Group of Five program.
Grade: B-
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22. Arizona
4 of 25
Following a breakthrough 2014 season under Rich Rodriguez that featured 10 wins, a Pac-12 South title and a Fiesta Bowl bid, the Wildcats were poised for more in 2015, especially with the return of offensive duo Anu Solomon and Nick Wilson as well as linebacker Scooby Wright, one of the nation’s best defensive players.
But things haven’t been quite right in Tucson. Wright suffered a torn meniscus in a sloppy season-opening win over UT-San Antonio and didn’t return until Saturday night against UCLA. Solomon has been excellent, with 11 touchdowns against no interceptions, but he left Saturday’s game and didn’t return after taking a hard hit.
Even with Wright back in the fold, the Wildcat defense was strafed in a 56-30 loss that proved ominous for their hopes of Pac-12 contention. Arizona won in spite of its defense last fall, and through four games, it’s allowing 30.2 points per game, No. 90 nationally. If Solomon misses any time, an offense that already needs to outscore teams will feel an extra-heavy burden.
Grade: B-
21. Stanford
5 of 25
Stanford entered 2015 hoping to shake off the malaise of an 8-5 season that ended the Cardinal’s two-year reign as the Pac-12 champion. A 16-6 season-opening loss at Northwestern was disconcerting, but a 41-31 win at then-No. 6 Southern California brought significant hope. After a 42-24 win over Oregon State, Stanford is No. 18 in this week’s poll, three spots above its original ranking.
Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan has been solid, throwing for 938 yards with seven touchdowns against two interceptions. And sophomore Christian McCaffrey has emerged as the clear No. 1 back, rushing for 445 yards and averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Despite the ugly start, this looks like a team to be reckoned with in the Pac-12 race. That’s welcome news in Palo Alto.
Grade: B+
20. Wisconsin
6 of 25
As the Big Ten season kicks into gear this week, not much has changed in Wisconsin. Well, head coach Paul Chryst is new, at least to his role, returning home to his hometown and alma mater where he served as an assistant under Barry Alvarez and Bret Bielema. But the Badgers are once again one of the best teams in the Big Ten West.
A season-opening loss to Alabama was disappointing but not entirely unexpected, but Wisconsin hasn’t been challenged in wins over Miami (Ohio), Troy and Hawaii, entering Saturday’s league opener against Iowa 3-1 and ranked No. 19 in the new AP poll.
Senior quarterback Joel Stave has bounced back from a down junior year to throw for 830 yards with seven touchdowns against two interceptions. Junior Corey Clement, the expected successor to Melvin Gordon, has missed three games with a groin injury and has just 16 rushing yards. But Taiwan Deal has picked up the slack with 290 yards and four touchdowns.
The Badgers are about who we thought they were, and that’s fine.
Grade: B
19. Oklahoma
7 of 25
In the wake of an ugly 8-5 season, Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops cleaned house on his offensive staff last winter, bringing in East Carolina offensive coordinator and Air Raid aficionado Lincoln Riley as his new offensive coordinator. In turn, Riley and Stoops benched 2014 starting quarterback Trevor Knight in favor of Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield.
Three games in, the experiment has been a smashing hit. The Sooners are unbeaten while averaging 371 passing yards per game, No. 8 nationally. Mayfield has been excellent, throwing for 1,062 yards with 10 touchdowns against two interceptions. Tailback Samaje Perine’s role has suffered; following a 1,713-yard freshman campaign, he has 263 yards rushing in three games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry (down from 6.5 a year ago).
This looks like a team that, at the very least, will be a big roadblock for Baylor and TCU as they fight for the Big 12 title, and that’s a huge step forward.
Grade: A
18. Arkansas
8 of 25
2014’s 7-6 season, capped with a Texas Bowl win over Texas, gave Arkansas’ passionate fans a reason to get excited about their team again. Bret Bielema’s third season was going to be the year that the Razorbacks challenged for SEC West supremacy, right?
Wrong.
The Hogs limp into October 1-3 and utterly demoralized. A stunning 16-12 home loss to Toledo started the slide. A 35-24 loss to Texas Tech and a 28-21 overtime loss to Texas A&M only exacerbated the ugliness.
Quarterback Brandon Allen has been solid, throwing for 1,141 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions. And tailback Alex Collins has 502 rushing yards and four touchdowns, but the offense clearly misses 1,190-yard rusher Jonathan Williams, who’ll miss the season with a foot injury.
And with a two-game road trip to Tennessee and Alabama up next, this is going to get worse before it gets better. It’s tough to see the Razorbacks making a bowl game this season, which would be a huge disappointment.
Grade: F
17. Ole Miss
9 of 25
Last fall, Ole Miss broke away from SEC West mediocrity with a nine-win season and Peach Bowl berth. This fall, Hugh Freeze’s Rebels have taken the next step in a big, big way. The Rebels look like one of the nation’s best teams and a College Football Playoff contender. Saturday’s win over Vanderbilt was sluggish, but the Rebs are 4-0 and one of the SEC’s best.
A 43-37 win at Alabama (the program’s second consecutive win over the Crimson Tide) was one of the best wins by any team in the season’s first month, and quarterback Chad Kelly looks like an upgrade over up-and-down Bo Wallace. He has 1,219 passing yards and 10 touchdowns against three interceptions throwing to a deep receiver corps keyed by Laquon Treadwell (22 receptions, 322 yards, one touchdown).
Ole Miss averages 55 points per game, No. 2 nationally, and the Rebels have a nasty defense led by junior defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, one of the nation’s best overall defenders. This should be a fun season in Oxford.
Grade: A
16. Georgia Tech
10 of 25
2014 was a year to remember in Atlanta, thanks to Georgia Tech’s resurgent 11-2 season that featured an ACC Coastal Division title and Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State. Despite losing four of the top five rushers and the top two receivers from 2014, expectations were high thanks to the return of junior quarterback Justin Thomas, the team’s leading returning rusher and passer.
Tech rolled Alcorn State and Tulane, averaging 65 points per game, but the Yellow Jackets came back to Earth in the past two weeks. A 30-22 loss at Notre Dame wasn’t nearly as close as it looked (Tech scored two cosmetic touchdowns in the final minute) and a 34-20 loss to Duke was also surprising.
Thomas is completing just 41.4 percent of his passes and is only Tech’s No. 4 rusher with 158 yards and three touchdowns, averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. Those numbers won’t cut it if tech hopes to rally for another division title. We’re guessing coach Paul Johnson isn’t a happy man these days.
Grade: D
15. Arizona State
11 of 25
Following consecutive 10-win seasons, Todd Graham and Arizona State hoped to take the next step forward this fall in the competitive Pac-12 South. It hasn’t happened.
A 38-17 season-opening loss to Texas A&M was disappointing, but not season-ending. But the Sun Devils haven’t woken up from their season-long slumber. They were tied in the fourth quarter with FCS foe Cal Poly before pulling out a 35-21 win, and Southern California blew the Devils’ doors off in a 42-14 rout. With a trip to UCLA up next and Utah and Oregon also on the docket in October, another 10-win season appears unlikely at best.
New starting quarterback Mike Bercovici has just been OK, throwing for seven touchdowns against two interceptions while completing 59.2 percent of his passes. But the defense, allowing 27.8 points per game, has been the real issue. And the offense hasn’t been able to bail them out as easily as it did a year ago, which adds up to major problems in Tempe.
Grade: D-
14. LSU
12 of 25
An 8-5 season would be cause for celebration in some locales, but at LSU, it was cause for concern. Last fall, a raft of early NFL draft departures added up and sent Les Miles’ crew back into the SEC West pack. Not for long, it appears.
Following a 34-24 win over a determined Syracuse team, the Tigers are 3-0 and look like a strong contender for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth. Sophomore Leonard Fournette has developed into a leading Heisman Trophy contender with consecutive 200-yard rushing games, rolling up 631 yards and eight touchdowns.
As FoxSports.com's Bruce Feldman explains, Fournette has become all but unstoppable. How has that happened? LSU running backs coach Frank Wilson says he understands defenses far better now.
"He now understands (pre-snap) ‘This is an ‘Under’ defense. Or this is an ‘Over' defense. Or this is an Okie defense. This guy is gonna spill it. This guy is the alley defender. This guy is gonna contain.' So he can set up blocks and read what they’re trying to do. Before, he didn’t lack vision, but really he was just reacting to everything. Now, he’s anticipating because he understands angles and things like that.
"
Sophomore Brandon Harris has been effective as the new starting quarterback, and new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has kept people from pining for John Chavis, who bolted for Texas A&M following 2014. It looks like a vintage LSU team, which is bad news for the SEC West.
Grade: A
13. UCLA
13 of 25
Jim Mora Jr. entered 2015 hoping to prove that his team was the best program in Los Angeles and a College Football Playoff contender, and the Bruins have looked like just that through four weeks. Saturday’s 56-30 demolition of defending Pac-12 South champs Arizona was only the latest sign. UCLA returned 17 starters from a year ago, and freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, the biggest addition, has fit in pretty well.
Rosen has 964 yards passing and has thrown seven touchdowns against four interceptions. Season-ending knee injuries to defensive stalwarts Myles Jack and Eddie Vanderdoes are a concern, but with Rosen and star tailback Paul Perkins, the Bruins can score with anyone. This looks like a strong CFP candidate and the Pac-12’s best team.
Grade: A
12. Clemson
14 of 25
Dabo Swinney has built Clemson into one of the nation’s best teams, thanks to four consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins, but this could be the year that the Tigers take the leap to elite status. With a talented roster led by sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson, Clemson has the horses to hang with anyone on its schedule.
Through three games, Swinney’s group has done nothing to dispel that notion but still has some questions to answer. The Tigers are 3-0 after escaping Louisville 20-17 and face their biggest challenge when Notre Dame comes calling for a prime-time tilt, one of the biggest games in Clemson in recent memory. Watson has thrown for 641 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions while completing 74.4 percent of his passes, and tailback Wayne Gallman has emerged as a lead back, averaging 103.3 yards per game.
The Tigers miss junior wide receiver Mike Williams (who could miss the entire season after suffering a neck fracture in the opener against Wofford) but still have plenty of weapons. And the defense hasn’t taken much of a step back despite losing most of the core of the nation’s top overall unit a year ago. We’ll know more in the next two weeks, but so far, so good.
Grade: B
11. Notre Dame
15 of 25
Notre Dame hoped that returning 17 starters would help turn around 2014’s roller coaster season, which led to an 8-5 finish. It’s done exactly that. Four games in, the Fighting Irish look like a true College Football Playoff contender, even after losing key offensive pieces like quarterback Malik Zaire and tailback Tarean Folston to season-ending leg injuries.
New starting quarterback DeShone Kizer has thrown for 541 yards with five touchdowns against two interceptions, completing 67.7 percent of his passes. And C.J. Prosise has more than picked up the backfield slack, rushing for 600 yards and six touchdowns. Wideout Will Fuller has been one of the nation’s best, catching 22 passes for 454 yards and six scores.
Meanwhile, the defense is improved, too, allowing 19.8 points per game. The Irish hammered Texas, shut down Georgia Tech and survived Virginia. A trip to Clemson will be a huge test, but they’re clearly on the right track.
Grade: A
10. Florida State
16 of 25
With a talented but young roster and only 10 starters returning (three on defense), we knew 2015 would feature some growing pains for Florida State. So the fact that Jimbo Fisher’s group enters October 3-0 is a positive development indeed.
New starting quarterback Everett Golson, a graduate transfer from Notre Dame, has thrown for 584 yards with six touchdowns against no interceptions but has often run for his life behind a struggling offensive line. Sophomore tailback Dalvin Cook has developed into a star, with 476 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.
There have been some ugly moments, like a 14-0 win at Boston College, and upcoming trips to Georgia Tech and Clemson will be telling. But the Seminoles have taken some lumps and come through fine, a true victory thus far.
Grade: B
9. Georgia
17 of 25
2014 was a disappointing year in Athens despite a 10-3 record. An ill-timed loss to Florida kept Georgia from an SEC East title that ultimately went to Missouri, and living with a loss to rival Georgia Tech is never easy. But following the first month of the season, that looks like a distant memory.
The Bulldogs are 4-0 and look like the clear class of the SEC East and a College Football Playoff contender entering this week’s huge visit from Alabama. Tailback Nick Chubb looks like a Heisman Trophy contender with 599 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and new starting quarterback Greyson Lambert has been very effective.
Lambert has thrown seven touchdowns against no interceptions, completing 76.5 percent of his passes and setting an NCAA single-game completion percentage record against South Carolina. In addition, the defense has progressed in Jeremy Pruitt’s second season, allowing 13.5 points per game. There’s no reason for angst right now in Sanford Stadium.
Grade: A
8. Southern California
18 of 25
This was supposed to be the year that Southern California escaped the malaise surrounding 2010’s NCAA probation and returned to the nation’s elite. The Trojans returned 14 starters and added a great recruiting class to a roster led by senior quarterback Cody Kessler and do-everything athlete Adoree’ Jackson.
But Stanford threw a wrench in those plans with a surprising 41-31 home defeat. USC bounced back with a 42-14 rout of Arizona State, but the Trojans have little to no margin for error to make the College Football Playoff.
Kessler has been outstanding, throwing for 1,297 yards with 15 touchdowns against one interception while completing 73 percent of his passes. And wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster has developed into a star, catching 27 passes for 537 yards and six touchdowns.
Is this a playoff team? That’s questionable. Is it improved from 2014? You bet.
Grade: B-
7. Oregon
19 of 25
So, did Marcus Mariota really make that big of a difference for Oregon? It certainly appears so. After leading the Ducks to a national runner-up finish, the Heisman Trophy winner took his talents to the NFL, but Oregon wasn’t expected to slip much.
That has not been the case. Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams won the job, and while a 31-28 loss at Michigan State was disappointing, it wasn’t season-ending. However, it could be tough for the Ducks to come back from Saturday’s 62-20 home demolition at Utah’s hands. The Utes scored more points than any foe in Autzen Stadium history, knocking Oregon completely out of the Top 25.
At 2-2, Oregon has already matched its loss total from all of last season and is out of College Football Playoff contention. The Ducks can still make a run for the Pac-12 title but will need much better play from their quarterback (be it Adams or Jeff Lockie) and a leaky defense.
Grade: D-
6. Auburn
20 of 25
One month ago, Auburn was a College Football Playoff contender, Will Muschamp was the best new coordinator in the game and Jeremy Johnson was a Heisman Trophy candidate. Folks, that’s why they play the games.
Auburn has been the biggest bust in the game through the first month of 2015. Johnson lost his job to Sean White after throwing for 473 yards with five touchdowns against six interceptions, and the Tigers have been outscored 62-30 in losses to LSU and Mississippi State. White wasn’t the answer, leading Auburn to a trio of field goals against the Bulldogs.
While Auburn’s defense is improved, the Tigers need better personnel to truly hang in the SEC and miss defensive end Carl Lawson (sidelined with a hip injury). The amazing thing? Auburn needed a late touchdown just to force overtime against FCS foe Jacksonville State before a 27-20 win. This could have been even worse, somehow.
Grade: F
5. Michigan State
21 of 25
Michigan State hoped to take the next step toward becoming a College Football Playoff contender this fall following a 24-3 record with Cotton and Rose Bowl wins over the past two seasons, and nothing Mark Dantonio’s group has done over the past month has dissuaded that talk.
While a 31-28 home win over Oregon lost some of its shine following the Ducks’ ugly loss to Utah, it was still a huge confidence-builder and the highlight of a 4-0 month.
Senior quarterback Connor Cook (838 yards, nine touchdowns, one interception) is a steady offensive leader, and Madre London and Aaron Burbridge have emerged in the ground and passing games, respectively.
While challenges remain against Michigan and Ohio State, this is a team that will be in the College Football Playoff chase until the very end.
Grade: A-
4. Baylor
22 of 25
With SMU, Lamar and Rice on the September docket, it was all but assured that Baylor would start the season 3-0. So beginning the Big 12 slate undefeated is no surprise for the Bears. The biggest question: How would new starting quarterback Seth Russell fill Bryce Petty’s shoes running the BU offense?
The answer? Just fine. Baylor averages 64 points per game, best in the nation. Russell has been very good, throwing for 995 yards with 15 touchdowns against four interceptions, completing 62.5 percent of his passes.
Wideout Corey Coleman has been one of the nation’s best, catching 17 passes for 460 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging an amazing 27.1 yards per catch. The defense will have big tests in Big 12 play, starting with this week’s matchup against Texas Tech, but if the offense keeps scoring at this pace, will it really matter?
Grade: A-
3. Alabama
23 of 25
Looking back, there was reason to be concerned about Alabama. The Crimson Tide has recruited well but were counting on several recent classes to fill the holes left by the departure of 13 starters from 2014’s SEC champion and College Football Playoff qualifier.
Now, the Tide are in a similar spot to a year ago, when they were 4-1 following a loss to Ole Miss. Alabama is 3-1 but must find more consistency at quarterback, where senior Jake Coker hasn’t distinguished himself. Coker has thrown for 786 yards with eight touchdowns against four interceptions, completing only 55.3 percent of his passes.
Leading receiver ArDarius Stewart has 21 catches but for only 177 yards and two touchdowns. The Tide needs a deep threat to help standout tailback Derrick Henry (422 yards, eight touchdowns) roam more freely. This team can still make the CFP, but it has no margin for error, starting with this week’s tough test at Georgia.
Grade: B-
2. TCU
24 of 25
Even before Aaron Green’s miraculous catch of a deflected pass to stun Texas Tech Saturday, TCU looked mighty vulnerable. The Horned Frogs snuck up on everyone last fall en route to a 12-1 record and Peach Bowl win but are on everyone’s radar this time around.
Minnesota provided a tougher-than-expected test in the season opener before falling 23-17, and the Red Raiders and quarterback Patrick Mahomes gave the Frogs everything they wanted and then some. The Frogs defense has been ravaged by graduation, injuries and suspensions, and with Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor’s offenses ahead, it’s hard to imagine TCU surviving the Big 12 gauntlet unscathed. Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin and the offense better get warmed up. They’ll be needed. Repeatedly.
Grade: B-
1. Ohio State
25 of 25
One month ago, Ohio State was college football’s clear No. 1 team and clearly its most talented team. As we turn to October, the Buckeyes remain the nation’s top team, but they look slightly more beatable than they did in August, even after a 42-24 season-opening rout at Virginia Tech.
The Buckeyes were pushed by Northern Illinois before escaping 20-13, and it’s easy to forget they actually trailed at the half in Blacksburg. Cardale Jones is still the starting quarterback but has been inconsistent, throwing for 622 yards with four touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 57 percent of his passes.
The receiving corps needs someone to step up as a consistent deep threat, but tailback Ezekiel Elliott is as talented as ever, rushing for 455 yards with five touchdowns, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
Ohio State’s defense, led by standout defensive end Joey Bosa, is still fearsome, and save challenges from Michigan and Michigan State, the Buckeyes have an excellent chance to finish the regular season unbeaten. They just need a little more polish than we might’ve thought.
Grade: B+
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