Patriots vs. Bills: What's the Game Plan for Buffalo?

The New England Patriots travel to Buffalo on Sunday, taking on the Bills in a matchup of 1-0 teams with legitimate AFC East title hopes. For Buffalo, a squad coming off a 27-14 drubbing of the Indianapolis Colts and aiming to end a 16-year playoff drought, the game offers the chance to send a real message to the rest of the league. 

Buffalo has not shied away from the challenge they face on Sunday. Rex Ryan’s always-boisterous teams are famous for confident trash talk, and the team even began selling souvenir air pumps in Buffalo colors, a dig at the Patriots’ notorious Deflategate scandal this offseason. 

I previewed the game earlier this week. In this piece, I'll break down the specific offensive and defensive strategies critical to a Bills victory, outline one of the game’s key matchups and offer a final prediction. 

Offensive Game Plan

Buffalo starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor was splendid in his Bills debut last week. He did not force throws, demonstrated confidence in the pocket and completed several throws under substantial pressure. He finished 14-of-19 for 195 yards and one touchdown, a 51-yarder to Percy Harvin. 

On the one hand, Taylor is an inexperienced quarterback. His coaching staff wisely limited him last week to short, low-risk throws. And that strategy worked: Buffalo’s offense put up a respectable number of points, and the team rode its elite defense to a convincing victory. 

On the other hand, the New England secondary is its defensive weakness. The Patriots’ defensive line and linebacker corps are among the league’s best, and safety Devin McCourty is at times a lockdown player. But Patrick Chung is getting old, Tarell Brown is a good-to-fair player at best and, if not for his Super Bowl heroics, nobody would know who Malcolm Butler is. 

So, Rex Ryan has a choice: He can take his chances with a young QB and try to exploit his opponent’s weakness, or play it safe and keep Taylor on a leash. Which does he choose?

Ultimately, the answer will reflect LeSean McCoy and the Buffalo running attack. If the Bills offensive line can create gaps, and if McCoy (and Karlos Williams) can break through, Taylor should keep his downfield shots to a minimum. Buffalo, for the time being, should avoid situations in which Taylor’s ability to pick apart a secondary down the field determines the outcome of the game. 

However, if McCoy—who managed just 41 yards on 17 carries last week—struggles to find consistent yardage, or if Williams cannot burst through the seams as he did twice last week, the New England defensive front may force Taylor to take some aggressive chances through the air. If that happens, Taylor should avoid McCourty wherever possible and hope Sammy Watkins recovers from a decidedly poor first performance. 

Luckily for Buffalo fans, McCoy—who battled hamstring issues during the preseason and was listed as questionable for this week’s game—should be ready to go. “I guarantee [McCoy]’s gonna be 100 percent on Sunday. Recuperate a couple days today and tomorrow,” said Williams, as ESPN’s Mike Rodak reported on Twitter:

Defensive Game Plan

You know what’s nice about having an elite defense? The “game plan” becomes pretty simple. And it’s no different for Buffalo this week. 

The key to beating New England, as Ryan well knows, is pressuring Tom Brady. The Patriots offense is devastating when it gets into a rhythm, as it did several times against Pittsburgh: quick, accurate, seven-yard strikes to Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, mixed with the occasional seam route or screen pass and culminating (usually) with a red-zone bullet to Rob Gronkowski’s freakish hands. 

But if that rhythm is messed up, New England becomes far less dangerous. The Patriots running attack is nothing to fear. LeGarrette Blount is tough to tackle, but he was hardly a stellar back last year and hasn’t played in 2015. And Dion Lewis, the latest in a string of unheard-of Patriots to inexplicably become major offensive weapons, has never played a defense like Buffalo’s. 

Buffalo defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, fresh off signing a contract extension, will make his season debut after serving a one-game suspension. The Buffalo D-line was excellent in his absence, forcing Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck into several rushed throws and two picks. That group will be even better with Dareus. 

Frankly, there isn't a ton of analysis to add here, because it’s as simple as that: pressure Brady, and Buffalo wins. Don’t, and it won’t matter how good the Buffalo secondary is. If Brady has time, he will find Gronkowski and Edelman over and over again. 

Key Matchup

Marcell Dareus vs. New England Offensive Line

This matchup bodes well for Buffalo, and it may well determine the outcome of the game. Dareus bolsters an already-solid defensive line in a big way, while the Patriots offensive line has already been struck by health issues. 

New England figures to start some combination of Nate Solder (who, incidentally, struggled with penalties last week), Shaq Mason, Tre’ Jackson and Josh Kline, surrounding David Andrews at center. That group faces Dareus, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes. It should be quite clear the Patriots will have their hands full. 

Dareus is a bona fide star fresh off a major extension and playing in his first game of the season. Both Mario and Kyle Williams, but especially Kyle, were superb last week. Jerry Hughes is solid and so is Corbin Bryant. And that doesn’t even address the Buffalo linebacker corps. Tom Brady better watch out for Nigel Bradham. 

Again, as previously mentioned, this game—like virtually all games involving the Patriots—comes down to pressuring Tom Brady. Dareus will be a big part of that. 

Prediction 

Buffalo 21, New England 10 

Buffalo has some questions to answer in this game. Sammy Watkins cannot be a zero again. McCoy has to be more efficient on the ground. The Bills need to establish a red-zone threat. Williams needs to show that last week, and his excellent preseason, wasn’t a fluke. LeGarrette Blount has been, historically, quite good against Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor has people excited but still has a lot to prove before he can be labeled legitimate.  

And for all the MVP hype surrounding Andrew Luck, the Bills are facing a quarterback whose performance over the last 10 weeks (going back to last season) has been simply spectacular. Beating Luck is a different animal compared to defeating Brady; if nothing else, Brady is more consistent, and his receiving weapons are more in-sync with their quarterback than Luck's are.

But I’m sticking with my prediction from earlier in the week, simply because the Buffalo defensive line is up to the task. They’re going to knock Brady around early and often, throwing a wrench in New England’s offensive machine, and Gronkowski will be drawing contact on virtually every play. 

As with most football games, much comes down to quarterback play. The key to beating New England is knocking down Tom Brady. But no team can win if their QB throws them out of the game. An especially poor performance from Taylor will undermine all the heroics Buffalo’s defense can muster. 

But Taylor only has to be pretty good to win games with this defense. I think he’ll be exactly that and it will be enough.