Texans vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

The Houston Texans will obviously need to run the ball to win, but I'd like to see them come out early with a focus on the quick passing game.

Part of what made Ryan Mallett so effective last season during his great game at Cleveland was how quickly he was able to make a decision and get rid of the football.

According to Pro Football Focus—via the Battle Red Blog—Mallett took an average of 2.06 seconds per pass attempt, which was easily the quickest time in the league that week.

During that game Mallett had a 123.1 QB rating when he released the pass in less than 2.5 seconds, but his rating plummeted to a lousy 31.3 when he took longer than 2.5 seconds.

Mallett, like any other young quarterback without much experience, struggles when forced to hold the ball and pass off schedule. Giving him quick throws to his first or second read is always important, but even more so this week since the injury status of Duane Brown is up in the air.

That doesn't mean Mallett should have to turn into Captain Checkdown the entire game, but any seven-step drop this week would be a mistake.

The passing game against Carolina should feature mostly three-stop drops and quick developing routes such as slants, drag routes and short hitch patterns.

If Mallett and the Texans are able to find some success with the quick passing, that could open up chances to take shots down the field if the Panthers secondary creeps up a bit to take away the short completions.

Throw the quick passes early to help Mallett find a rhythm, get the Panthers defenders focused on taking away the underneath routes and then hit them with a double move over the top for a big play.

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Mallett has a big arm and can make throws that no other quarterback in franchise history was capable of making, but this game will only be the third start of his NFL career, so forcing the action early wouldn't be wise.

With Arian Foster still out, passing early could also help set up things for the running game.

If the Texans can force Carolina to use sub-packages with an extra defensive back in place of a linebacker to stop the pass, that could give them a numbers advantage up front and make running the ball much easier. 

Defensive Game Plan

The Texans struggled during their Week 1 loss to Kansas City in coverage against the Chiefs tight ends and running backs. Lots of teams struggle to cover Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles, but the Texans' issues in that area was not an isolated, one-game problem.

With Mike Mohamed still out, the Texans could continue to struggle in that area this week because none of their other linebackers are good enough in man coverage to cover Panthers tight end Greg Olsen one-on-one.

Since the Panthers are likely to lean on the running game heavily, the Texans might need to drop a safety down into the box. If so, using one of their safeties to shadow Olsen all over the field won't be an option.

So how should they go about slowing him down?

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Instead of using a safety to cover Olsen in man coverage, the Texans should use their linebackers, safeties and nickel or dime corners in zone coverage while keeping the two outside boundary corners in man coverage.

Not on every play of course, but using zone coverage more frequently is a good strategy for this week.

Only two things are concerning about the Panthers offense: Olsen getting open downfield and Cam Newton picking up yards and key first downs with his scrambling ability. Playing more zone could help limit both threats.

Playing more zone should tighten up the passing windows around Olsen with multiple defenders bracketing him and also keep the eyes of Texans defenders toward the backfield in case Newton decides to scramble.

Olsen will find holes to sit down in against the zone from time to time, but using a linebacker underneath and a safety over the top of him will muddy up the looks for Newton and should prevent the big play like the Texans allowed to Kelce last week.

In man coverage not only are the Texans defenders more likely to lose Olsen down the field, but they'll also have their backs turned to chase their guy and therefore be slower to react to Newton running.

What about Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers running game? I'm not that worried about the Houston run defense.

Last week the Texans held Charles to 57 yards on 16 carries—3.5 yards per carry—while the Chiefs as a team averaged just a fraction over three yards per carry.

Stewart is a quality back, but he's no Charles.

With Vince Wilfork, J.J. Watt and Jared Crick up front, I'm confident the Texans will be able to limit the production of Stewart and the Panthers running game.

Key Players and Matchups

Greg Olsen vs. Texans Back Seven

Kelce torched the Texans last week for over 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and Olsen will do the same if the defense doesn't make an adjustment. Last season Olsen was one of only two tight ends to go over the 1,000-yard mark, and he also finished third in receptions.

Mario Addison and Charles Johnson vs. Texans Offensive Tackles

Pro Bowl tackle Duane Brown might miss this game with an injury, and the Texans' other tackle Derek Newton had the worst Pro Football Focus grade among their offensive linemen last week at minus-3.6.

Of the 65 offensive tackles graded in Week 1, Newton ranked 58th in pass protection.

That could be a bit of a problem.

Addison had two sacks last week against Jacksonville, while Johnson has been one of the more consistent pass-rushers in the league over the last five seasons, so whoever starts at tackle for Houston will have his hands full.

Josh Norman vs. DeAndre Hopkins

George Bridges/Associated Press

Norman earned the highest grade of his career from Pro Football Focus and led all cornerbacks in Week 1 with his plus-4.3 rating. Hopkins also earned a plus grade from the website with his nine receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City.

The Texans' No. 2 receiver Nate Washington had more than 100 yards last week, so if Norman is able to neutralize Hopkins, Washington's production will be a key for the team.

Prediction: Texans 20, Panthers 13

The Panthers offense just doesn't scare me enough to pick against the Texans this week.

That feels odd to say considering how much of a dumpster fire the Texans offense was a week ago, but with Mallett under center, we'll see some improvement from that side of the ball.

Neither team will light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, so picking this game really comes down to which defense you have more faith in to make key stops.

The 27 points allowed to Kansas City last week looks bad on the surface, but two of the Chiefs' three touchdown drives came off turnovers. On those two touchdown drives, the Chiefs only had to "march" a combined 20 yards to score 14 points.

I can't blame the defense for giving up points when the opponent only has to drive a combined 20 yards to score twice. The blame for those two touchdowns belongs to Brian Hoyer for turning the ball over deep inside Houston's own territory.

Plus, the Texans didn't allow a single point to the Chiefs in the second half last week, so their performance was better than the stats may indicate.

Newton is an inefficient quarterback. The Texans stopped the running game of a team with a better back than Stewart last week, and with the injury to Kelvin Benjamin the Panthers don't have anything on the outside that's worth worrying about.

Expect it to be a low-scoring, one-possession type of game with the Texans defense making the extra plays to earn the victory.