Patriots vs. Bills: Full Buffalo Game Preview
Last week’s 27-14 victory over Indianapolis was everything the Buffalo Bills hoped for. Buffalo starting QB Tyrod Taylor was excellent in his first game, the Bills’ magnificent defense kept Andrew Luck and the Colts offense under wraps and head coach Rex Ryan began his Buffalo career with a victory.
It will be harder this week.
On Sunday, Buffalo hosts the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. It will be an illuminating test for the Bills, as they not only take on the perennial AFC East champion but also face a Patriots team that thoroughly dominated Pittsburgh last weekend.
And while Indy was the AFC’s second-best team last year, there are important differences between the Colts and Patriots. New England star Rob Gronkowski is an obvious one, as no team in the league starts a better tight end. But the Patriots’ defensive line is also markedly better than that of the Colts, and Julian Edelman (New England’s No. 1 receiver) poses a far different challenge than Indy star wideout T.Y. Hilton.
This is a statement game for Buffalo. If the Bills win on Sunday, they will have knocked off last year’s two best AFC teams and solidified their standing as both division and conference contenders. A loss, however, will further cement what many outsiders already believe: No matter how good Buffalo’s defense may be, it’s not enough to topple New England as the AFC East kingpin.
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
News and Notes
1 of 5
When it comes to football teams Rex Ryan coached, off-field smack talk appears to be mandatory. The generally well-liked but blustery head coach is famous for his dramatic, brash, confident enthusiasm and it appears to have spread throughout the Buffalo locker room.
“I hate New England...it’s definitely personal for me,” Bills safety Aaron Williams told Buffalo radio host Sal Capaccio on Tuesday. Williams was just one of several Buffalo players to acknowledge their disdain for New England, a team whose combination of off-field cheating allegations and on-field dominance has irked fans all over the country.
Buffalo defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, who returns this week after serving a one-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy, was even blunter. “Don’t nobody likes the Patriots. Let’s just be honest about it now. Put it out there,” he said to ESPN’s Mike Rodak.
New England coach Bill Belichick offered an uncharacteristically feisty response to Rex Ryan’s squad. “I think our record against him has been OK. I’ll take it,” said Belichick, speaking to reporters after practice on Wednesday.
Latest Injury Notes
2 of 5
Buffalo safety Corey Graham, who suffered a concussion at the beginning of last week’s game against Indianapolis, went through limited practice on Wednesday, per the team's official website. While the Buffalo secondary managed to keep Luck in check, even after Graham left the game, he’s a starting safety, and his presence will be critical to victory against a Tom Brady-led team.
Bills wideout Percy Harvin, who hauled in a 51-yard touchdown pass from Taylor last week, did not participate in practice on Wednesday. Harvin appears likely to play Sunday, but he has a long injury history and has battled health issues since the beginning of training camp. His status bears watching, not only this week but also throughout the season.
On a somewhat-related note, Dareus will make his first start for Buffalo after earning a six-year, $108 million extension. Running back Bryce Brown was released by the team on Tuesday.
Key Matchups
3 of 5
Patriots Offensive Line vs. Bills Defensive Line
Buffalo’s defensive line was terrific last week. It pressured Andrew Luck all game, forcing him to make tough throws that yielded two interceptions. And it kept the Indy running game quiet for the entire afternoon.
It should be even better this week.
Dareus is a star, a legitimate difference-maker, even when he’s not surrounded by fellow defensive studs. And this Buffalo D is probably the league's best.
The Patriots have lost two Super Bowls in the past decade, both of them to the New York Giants. And the key for New York in both games was pressuring the quarterback.
When Tom Brady has time in the pocket, the Patriots win. It really is that simple. Julian Edelman is a pristine route-runner, and Gronkowski is a monster. If Brady is pressured, the New England offense becomes a lot less toothy. If he has time, all of Buffalo’s defensive talent may not be enough.
Percy Harvin vs. New England secondary
Harvin caught a 51-yard touchdown and finished with 79 yards. When Harvin is healthy, he’s among the league’s most dynamic wideouts. He has the speed to beat a secondary downfield; he has the quickness to hurt teams on slant routes and in the flat. He’s in his seventh year as a pro, and while injuries have plagued him, he is better at absorbing contact than people give him credit for.
And New England’s secondary is absolutely its weakness.
The Patriots' defensive line is terrific, and their offense—if its key pieces remain healthy—is good enough to compete with anyone. Teams hoping to take down the Pats must pressure Brady, but they also must exploit New England’s secondary, especially the cornerbacks.
Right now, the Patriots figure to start Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler and seventh-year pro Bradley Fletcher at cornerback. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo’s presumed No. 1 receiver, was basically nonexistent last week; that will change on Sunday. But the Patriots will expect a rebound performance from Watkins, and they may be less likely to anticipate another terrific day from Harvin.
Summary
Long story short, the Bills need Taylor to build on last week’s performance, and they need Watkins to step up. But if Harvin can consistently create space on the outside, the Buffalo running game will open up, and things will only get easier for Taylor and Watkins.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor
4 of 5
RB LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy was the biggest prize in Buffalo’s busy offseason. And last week, McCoy was pretty good, finishing with 41 rushing yards and 46 yards on three receptions. After battling injury in the preseason, McCoy appeared confident in both taking hits and making cuts.
But Buffalo needs a lot more.
For one thing, McCoy’s 41 yards came on 17 carries. That is not very good, particularly for a runner of McCoy’s ability. For another, the Bills need McCoy to be more threatening in the red zone. Taylor will not throw many 51-yard touchdowns, and Anthony "Boobie" Dixon—despite his touchdown—was utterly anemic last week.
However, McCoy may have been limited in his action last weekend. As ESPN’s Mike Rodak reported, McCoy said he played “quite a bit,” but not as much as he could have. So it may be that Ryan—perhaps presciently—chooses to limit McCoy’s touches, particularly when the Bills aren’t in a tight game.
McCoy will face a daunting Patriots front seven. But if he can break loose, especially early on in the game, it will set the tone for the entire Buffalo offense.
Prediction
5 of 5
Buffalo 21, New England 10
It’s time for New England’s AFC dominance to end. Brady and Co. will almost certainly make the playoffs in some fashion, but this Buffalo squad could go the entire season without surrendering 30 points in a game, and Ralph Wilson Stadium will be as loud as it’s ever been this weekend. The road to Buffalo’s first playoff appearance since 1999 starts on Sunday.
There are two particular things working in Buffalo’s favor here.
First, New England’s top two offensive options—Edelman and Gronkowski—are splendid, top-tier players. But there really isn’t much depth. Brandon LaFell is out with injury, Danny Amendola has never really crystallized into the weapon Belichick hoped he would be and it’s unclear that little-known running back Dion Lewis can maintain the sort of production he enjoyed last week.
Facing what I believe to be the league’s best defense, New England’s lack of depth will hurt it.
And second, the Buffalo defensive line ought to be amped up. Not only does the group get a premier player back in Dareus, but it's also playing New England, a team nobody in Buffalo likes and a team the Bills must beat to make the playoffs.
Energy is high in Buffalo. I think Brady gets shelled.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
