NBA Veterans Most Likely to Lose Starting Gigs in 2015-16
There's more to do at NBA training camps than catching up with familiar faces, welcoming new ones and brushing off the dust accumulated over the past few months.
There are roster spots up for grabs and starting jobs on the line. And winning those battles only starts a season-long war to maintain those positions.
Some veteran starters won't be able to hold onto that status throughout the upcoming 2015-16 campaign. Some might even lose it before opening night's tipoff. Those on winning teams may find that someone else possesses a better-fitting skill set. Those with rebuilding clubs could be demoted in hopes of hastening a prospect's development.
Every starter faces some level of competition, and these 10 players are most likely to be pushed out of their spots.
Thabo Sefolosha, SF, Atlanta Hawks
1 of 10
The Atlanta Hawks need someone to replace two-way swingman DeMarre Carroll in their opening lineup, and 31-year-old veteran Thabo Sefolosha seems to be head coach Mike Budenholzer's preferred option.
"Having Thabo (Sefolosha) having played for a year with us and having him know how we do things defensively and offensively," Budenholzer told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution when asked how to replace Carroll. "...I think we are very hopeful that he gets healthy and ready. That gives you some confidence that there is a start."
But that's the first problem with relying on Sefolosha. He's still working his way back from a broken right fibula and may not be ready for the start of training camp, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley.
At 6'7", Sefolosha has good size for the wing and understands how to utilize his length defensively. But lately he's hit some rough patches at the opposite end. After making 44.6 percent of his field goals and 35.4 percent of his threes over his first seven seasons, he's seen those conversion rates sink to 41.6 and 31.7, respectively, during the past two.
The Hawks lack proven commodities behind him, and provided he's healthy, that could make him a starter on opening night. But if Atlanta can bring its young players along, it may eventually opt for Tim Hardaway Jr.'s scoring prowess or the length-athleticism-energy combinations offered by Kent Bazemore and Justin Holiday.
Evan Turner, SF, Boston Celtics
2 of 10
Evan Turner had his moments during his initial run with the Boston Celtics, but overall, the former No. 2 pick failed to impress once again.
He struggled with his shot from the field (42.9 percent) and the outside (27.7). His per-36-minute scoring average dipped to its lowest level since his rookie year (12.4). He posted a personal-best 12.8 player efficiency rating, but that's still below the league-average mark of 15.0.
Perhaps most damning of all, the Celtics were 4.7 points per 100 possessions better when he didn't play.
ESPN.com still has him plugged in as Boston's starting 3, but that spot feels as sturdy as a house of cards. Based on their makeup around the position, the Celtics could use either a sniper or a stopper at small forward. Turner doesn't scratch either itch.
If head coach Brad Stevens wants defense on the perimeter—he may not have a choice with little rim protection up front—he'd be better off with Jae Crowder. The relentless, versatile defender just inked a five-year, $35 million pact over the offseason, so Boston clearly likes what he brings to the table.
If Stevens craves offense instead, he still has superior candidates to Turner. The Celtics should be set on playmakers with Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and rookie Terry Rozier in the backcourt, so a spot-up marksman such as Jonas Jerebko, James Young or rookie R.J. Hunter could better complement Boston's other starters.
Cody Zeller, PF, Charlotte Hornets
3 of 10
Last season, the top 10 teams in three-point percentage all made the playoffs. All four conference finalists ranked among the top five in perimeter makes.
The Charlotte Hornets didn't come close to relevance in either category. Their 6.1 threes per game tied for the fourth fewest in the league. Their 31.8 percent conversion rate ranked dead last.
To their credit, they recognized this issue (though it was near impossible to miss). Nearly all of their offseason maneuvers were focused on improving their long-range attack: trading for Spencer Hawes, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb, drafting Frank Kaminsky and signing Jeremy Lin.
Even with all that activity, the Hornets still have three non-shooters on their projected first string, according to ESPN.com. Al Jefferson is one, and the 30-year-old isn't about to start straying away from the low block. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another, and he hasn't attempted a triple since January 2014. But the Hornets can't afford to lose Jefferson's scoring or Kidd-Gilchrist's defense.
That could leave 7-footer Cody Zeller with the short straw, unless he can take his coach's advice and find a long-distance stroke. "He doesn't have to shoot 35 percent from three," said Hornets coach Steve Clifford, per Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "But if he shoots 32 percent it opens up his game."
Zeller is 1-of-2 from deep through two NBA seasons. During his two years at Indiana, he missed his only two long-range looks. There might be hope for him as a shooter, but there's very little in the way of evidence.
While risky, a better option might be tossing the 22-year-old Kaminsky into the lion's den. He hit 37.9 percent from distance over his final two seasons at Wisconsin, and the Hornets need that accuracy to carry over. They reportedly turned down an offer of four first-round picks to draft him, sources told Grantland's Zach Lowe, so they must maximize this investment.
Paul Pierce, SF, Los Angeles Clippers
4 of 10
The Los Angeles Clippers haven't officially slotted Paul Pierce into their starting group, but it's easy to assume that's a mere formality. The Clippers need a starting 3 following this summer's trade of Matt Barnes, and Pierce has opened 1,240 of his 1,250 career games inside the lines.
Of course, assuming can be a dangerous practice. And there are rumblings that this decision isn't as automatic as most might think.
Fellow free-agency addition Wesley Johnson is also in the running for the position, according to Dan Woike of the Orange County Register. Such a setup could be beneficial to both Pierce and Johnson.
The 37-year-old Pierce, who logged a career-low 26.2 minutes per game for the Washington Wizards last season, could use a lighter load to conserve fuel for the playoffs. A second-team gig would also allow him to see time as a floor-spacing power forward, which wouldn't be possible with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan already occupying the starting frontcourt.
As for Johnson, the No. 4 pick in 2010, he could use the assistance offered by L.A.'s elite opening group. He still boasts intriguing physical tools, and his limited offense might work best in a specialist's role. He converted a respectable 39.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples last season and could find even more open looks with the defensive attention demanded by Griffin, Chris Paul and J.J. Redick.
Kevin Martin, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 10
The Minnesota Timberwolves know they're holding a treasure chest of young talent. That's why they're safeguarding their investments from overexertion and surrounding them with veteran leadership.
But there's also an understanding that floor time is critical to the development of their prospects. And with so much polish still required for the perimeter collection of Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Shabazz Muhammad, the starting window for 32-year-old Kevin Martin should be closing.
Despite missing 43 games last season, Martin still ranked second on the team with 33.4 minutes a night. While he managed his floor time well—pacing the club with 20.0 points per game—Minnesota's priorities should focus less on production and more on potential.
The Wolves can deploy both Wiggins and Muhammad at the 3, but LaVine's path isn't as clear. While he's capable of running point, that position is already manned by Ricky Rubio, Andre Miller and rookie Tyus Jones. Minnesota must find a way to get ample minutes for LaVine, because he already showed he can handle them.
"I'm not so impressed by his athleticism as I was by his last month of the season," wrote CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill. "...Putting up 21 points, nearly seven assists and six rebounds in April could be written off as a late-season anomaly, but in 40 games as a starter he averaged 14 points and five assists."
It's possible the Wolves could start Martin early in an attempt to showcase him as a trade chip, but he cannot and should not close the campaign with their opening group.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 10
The New Orleans Pelicans clearly believe in Omer Asik. They parted with a first-round pick to get him from the Houston Rockets last offseason, then signed him to a five-year, $60 million deal during this one.
The 7-footer is an active interior presence defensively, and he's flashed an insatiable appetite for rebounds. His willingness to do the dirty work means franchise face Anthony Davis doesn't always have to, and assisting the Brow should be New Orleans' primary focus.
That being said, Asik is an awkward fit in today's down-sizing NBA. His stone hands and charity-stripe struggles (career 55.3 free-throw percentage) nearly render him useless at the offensive end. The Pelicans averaged 3.5 points per 100 possessions fewer when he played last season, which more than cancelled out the positive impact he made defensively.
The Golden State Warriors exploited him in the postseason with their small-ball attack, which was partially orchestrated by new Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry. If the skipper hopes to run a similar system in the Big Easy, he might tether Asik to the bench.
Spacing is critical in Gentry's offense, and finishers such as Davis, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday all need room to probe the paint. Asik only muddles things up in the middle, so the Pelicans might have to plug a stretch big such as Alexis Ajinca or Ryan Anderson into the starting five.
Jose Calderon, PG, New York Knicks
7 of 10
After limping to the worst record in franchise history last season, the New York Knicks needed the kind of housecleaning that involves sledgehammers and dust masks.
They've been gutting and rebuilding around Carmelo Anthony ever since. Their projected starting five on ESPN.com includes only two returning players from that 65-loss team: Anthony and Jose Calderon. That number should be cut in half, and Anthony—who has at least $73.6 million left on his deal—won't be the odd man out.
The defensive end has never been kind to Calderon, and the 33-year-old felt little relief at the opposite side last season. He shot a career-worst 41.5 percent from the field and nearly set personal lows in per-36-minute points (10.8) and assists (5.6). Altogether, he posted a minus-4.02 real plus/minus, which ranked 78th out of 84 point guards, via ESPN.com.
Yet it sounds as if the Knicks plan to roll him out in their starting lineup again. President of basketball operations Phil Jackson told Charley Rosen that he envisions rookie Jerian Grant battling sophomore Langston Galloway for floor time, per ESPN.com. But New York should be thinking bigger with Grant, a four-year starter at Notre Dame and the No. 19 pick in June's draft.
"I know Jackson has to be diplomatic toward the veterans, but the guy Grant should be 'competing' with is Jose Calderon," wrote Posting and Toasting's Joe Flynn. "And when I say 'competing' I mean Grant should probably supplant him as the starting point guard by November."
Even with Anthony around, the Knicks should be planning for their future. Starting Grant would be a move in that direction, plus he presently brings more two-way talent than Calderon.
Channing Frye, PF, Orlando Magic
8 of 10
The Orlando Magic have tried to speed up their post-Dwight Howard recovery plan, and Channing Frye was supposed to be one of their primary accelerators. But if the first season of his four-year, $32 million contract was any indication, he might be an impediment to their progress.
Over 75 games and 51 starts, Frye saw his field-goal percentage plummet to a career-worst 39.2 percent. He was a non-factor on the glass (3.9 rebounds per game) and a turnstile defensively. The Magic fared 3.7 points per 100 possessions better without him.
Those numbers alone could banish him to the second team, though ESPN.com still projects him as an opening-night starter. But the biggest threat to his spot isn't his sagging statistics; it's the drool-worthy prospects bearing down behind him.
Sophomore Aaron Gordon is far from a finished product, but he's an obvious candidate for major minutes. His offense showed signs of growth at the Orlando Summer League, and his defense is already starting-caliber.
"Gordon has unique versatility and a Rodmanesque ability to guard bigs, smalls and just about any other size," wrote Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. "I'd leave Aaron to watch all my valuables."
Pairing Gordon with Tobias Harris at the forward positions would give Orlando two-way balance and the athleticism needed to survive any small-ball matchup. Frye can still have value as a quick-strike gunner off the bench, but his defensive deficiencies should cost him his first-string spot.
P.J. Tucker, SF, Phoenix Suns
9 of 10
The Phoenix Suns can get a certain dependability from three-year starter P.J. Tucker.
He's posted nearly identical stat lines over the past two seasons. He hustles, aggressively hits the glass and competes hard at the defensive end.
There isn't much mystery with the 30-year-old. But the Suns may need some unpredictability to pull themselves off the treadmill of mediocrity. Tyson Chandler should plug some of their defensive leaks, but there's only so much impact a 32-year-old, defensive-minded center can make.
For Phoenix to find its footing in the crowded Western Conference, it has to rely on substantial internal improvement. Searching for that headway could mean moving away from a comfortable option like Tucker and trying to catch lightning in a bottle with sophomore T.J. Warren. After a promising finish to his rookie year (7.9 points on 55.2 percent shooting in final 20 games), the NC State product thinks he can compete for a starting job.
"I feel like it's right there for me to get," Warren told Joe Giglio of the Charlotte Observer. "I just need to be patient and keep working."
Moving from Tucker to Warren would cost the Suns some outside shooting, but the trio of Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and (assuming he isn't traded) Markieff Morris may provide enough. Warren would also bring a better knack for scoring, savvy off-ball movement and an improving effort on defense.
Nene, PF, Washington Wizards
10 of 10
Counting on Nene has always been a tricky proposition, because the burly big man has been a magnet for injuries. During his 13-year career, he's missed at least 15 games in seven different seasons—including each of the last four.
But the 33-year-old has more than health to worry about. His bigger hazard is the league's move toward jump-shooting big men, which the Washington Wizards embraced late last season.
After seeing the space created by stretch shooters such as Paul Pierce and Drew Gooden—along with what John Wall and Bradley Beal were able to do with that extra room—Wizards coach Randy Wittman said he wanted more of it.
"I'd like to maybe get a little bit better at the stretch 4, the shooting 4," Wittman told 106.7 The Fan's Chad Dukes in June (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post). "We have to be able to play with those teams like Golden State. ... Our league's changing a little bit."
When Wittman made that comment, Pierce hadn't left. In fact, the coach said in the same interview he thought the veteran would stay in the District. In other words, Wittman has a sizable craving for stretch bigs.
And that's something Nene has never been. He's 4-of-36 from deep for his career, and more than 73 percent of his field-goal attempts have come within 10 feet of the basket. The Wizards need more range than that, and at some point they'll ask guys like Gooden, Jared Dudley and Alan Anderson to provide it.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
