Texans vs. Panthers: Full Houston Week 2 Preview
Never say never, but if the Houston Texans lose on Sunday to the Carolina Panthers, their chances of making a surprise playoff run will be close to zero.
From before the start of the 2014 season, since 1990 only 23 of the 198 teams which started 0-2—12 percent—went on to make the playoffs, according to CBS Sports.
During the 2014 season, only the Indianapolis Colts made the playoffs after starting 0-2.
The playoffs were always more of a long shot than a reasonable expectation for this year's team, but getting hit with the realization that the season could be over after just two weeks is rough for any fanbase.
Sadly, fans of the Texans are accustomed to starting NFL draft talk way too early, but let's hope it doesn't get to that point.
Speaking of hope, if there is any to be had, where will it come from?
Take heart in the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars are awful, the Indianapolis Colts lost an early game they were favored to win and that Marcus Mariota won't finish many more games with a perfect quarterback rating when he has to face a team other than Tampa Bay.
Plus, the Texans made an early and loud call for change at quarterback, so there is hope to cling to for fans of the Texans.
Unless they lose their Week 2 game to the Panthers, of course.
Week 1 Results and Recap
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The only thing uglier than the performance of the Houston Texans during the first half last Sunday was the terrible turf at NRG Stadium.
"The Chiefs aren't happy with the condition of the field here in Houston. This is one seam... http://t.co/y9Vr8y0VGr pic.twitter.com/Zh7LWVqAfj
— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) September 13, 2015"
Seriously, this is the 14th year of the franchise, and that's the best they can do?
We're not going to solve that mess right now, so let's move on to the game.
No one needs to be told that nearly everything went poorly against Kansas City, so before we get into the negatives, let's discuss a few of the silver linings from Week 1.
The first positive was obviously the play of J.J. Watt. The defending Defensive Player of the Year was the only player on the Texans roster to record either a sack or a quarterback hit—two and three, respectively—along with six tackles for a loss.
"Swim move and turn that corner by Watt. #Texans https://t.co/XbHV9ZYNyH
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Another positive on the defensive side came from the play of Jadeveon Clowney. The former top-overall pick didn't record a sack but showed great burst off the line, made some nice fundamental plays while setting the edge and should get partial credit for causing Watt's second sack.
"Clowney coming off the snap. Man. #Texans https://t.co/l3FjP0MXG3
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015 "
"Clowney playing fundamental football here. Sits makes sure the ball is handed off then makes the play. #Texans https://t.co/NSLZs5NMhI
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 15, 2015 "
"Alex Smith sees Clowney on the twist. Watt cleans up with the sack. #Texans https://t.co/FVx4yRbWzQ
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
The other encouraging sign worth pointing out was the play of DeAndre Hopkins, who finished the game with nine receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Hopkins looked fully ready to take on the role of a No. 1 receiver and made some of the great high-point grabs that helped make him a first-round pick.
"50/50 ball Hopkins does work. #Texans https://t.co/YUBOQ42Auh
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Unfortunately, it's now time to go over some of the many negatives from the opening game.
We have to start off with the play of left guard Jeff Adams, who started in place of the injured Xavier Su'a-Filo. Adams was just pushed around and dominated like few have been against Kansas City.
"Jeff Adams at LG. Hoyer has zero chance. #Texans https://t.co/eF0YA0VOvR
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Looking at the play above in particular, it seemed like Adams tried to overcompensate for his shortcomings by turning up the aggressiveness, but that idea often backfires on offensive lineman.
When players like Adams try to do too much and get overly aggressive, they tend to put themselves into bad situations by reaching and getting the top part of their bodies out over their feet. At that point they lose their bases of power and can be flung down or pushed around like rag dolls.
After watching Adams get tossed aside or pushed back into the quarterback for a couple of quarters, anger at his poor play transformed into sympathy for him to a small degree, as well as frustration with the coaching staff and front office that put him on the field.
"Jeff Adams right into Hoyer's lap. No chance here. #Texans https://t.co/4r8VXI6HMa
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Surely Adams tried his best, but he's just too big and doesn't have the right skill set to play guard at the pro level. Defenders consistently got underneath his pads, won the leverage battle and pushed him to wherever they wanted to go; it looked like Adams was on skates.
The protection problems up front certainly played into the struggles of quarterback Brian Hoyer, but he also made things worse with his slow or bad-decision making and poor accuracy with his passes.
"This window Hoyer tried to fit it in. Defenders everywhere. #Texans https://t.co/c7XDKU9OaH
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
The first and most obvious problem with Hoyer's pass here was that his intended target was well-covered by multiple defenders, but what gets overlooked is that even if his target was open, the pass was so far behind his receiver that it likely would have been incomplete anyway.
"Hoyer sees Grimes but doesn't throw it. Houston gets the sack. #Texans https://t.co/lEiWg7ILpV
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
If Hoyer was able to put a pass on the outside shoulder of Grimes immediately as he came out of his break on the play above, he would have had a completion and a chance of Grimes' turning up the field for more yards with the defender playing off a bit.
Anticipation is a must-have quality for quarterbacks at the NFL level. If a quarterback waits until a receiver comes wide-open to let go of the ball, it's already too late.
Just look at Ryan Mallett's pass from later in the game on a two-point-conversion attempt as a good example of anticipation:
"Then this throw for the two point conversion. #Texans https://t.co/Lrr74gUgt8
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Mallett can see from the position of the defender that throwing a low, back-shoulder fade will allow Hopkins to use his body to shield off the defender and make the catch.
It looks like the play call is for a normal, high-arching fade route, but Mallett adjusted based on how the defender is playing the route and put the ball in the perfect spot.
By throwing the ball before Hopkins even turned around, the defender had no chance to react. Had he waited until Hopkins stopped and turned for the ball, the defender would have at least knocked the pass down but would have had a great chance for an interception.
Hoyer's issues with accuracy also caused one of the two missed pass-interference calls from the refs.
"Non PI call. Ball thrown well behind Shorts. #Texans https://t.co/SSnzSK3CZD
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
If Hoyer were able to lead the pass up the field and put it on the outside shoulder of Cecil Shorts, the defensive back wouldn't have had a chance to even be involved in the play.
Yes, the referees missed what should have been pass interference, but the poor accuracy of Hoyer caused the contact and prevented what should have been an easy completion and a huge play.
The other big issue from Week 1 was poor tackling from the back seven.
"JJo will want this one back. Bad technique all the way around. #Texans https://t.co/jcpqjjVvEr
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015 "
"JJo will want this one back. Bad technique all the way around. #Texans https://t.co/jcpqjjVvEr
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 14, 2015"
Neither veteran played a ton in preseason—Johnathan Joseph in particular—so here's hoping the tackling problems will get fixed as they knock off some of the rust, but those mistakes were costly against the Chiefs.
Some might be thinking, "What about the poor coverage on Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce?"
That issue hasn't been forgotten, but the unfortunate reality is that their only decent linebacker in coverage is injured. Until Mike Mohamed comes back, expect those issues to continue.
News and Notes
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It's Brian Hoyer. No, wait, it's Ryan Mallett...we think?
The game of musical chairs at the quarterback position has officially begun!
"O'Brien says he has a good idea of who the starting quarterback will be on Sunday, just won't announce it. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 14, 2015"
"Brian Hoyer declined comment when asked if he knows his status for Sunday and if he'll remain starter. Many expect him to start this week
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 15, 2015"
Bill O'Brien stated on Monday that he wouldn't name a starting quarterback publicly for the Week 2 game against Carolina, despite having made up his mind already on that decision.
Why?
Two things about this are bothersome. First, what tactical difference does it make to keep the decision secret? It's not like one of them is a scrambler, while the other is a statue in the pocket; the Panthers' coaches shouldn't be up all night over this.
The second thing is that it keeps the quarterback conversation alive in a way that could become a big distraction. Does O'Brien really want the media asking his players all week about the quarterback situation?
Of course, as you all know by now, the question at quarterback was answered on Wednesday afternoon.
"Sources: #Texans are poised to make a quarterback change. They are preparing to play with QB Ryan Mallett as their starter vs. the #Panthers
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 16, 2015"
As soon as the information got out, it was immediately confirmed by multiple local reporters, so the information seems legit, but one wonders about the source of the leak.
"Sources confirm Ryan Mallett will start on Sunday as first reported by @RapSheet
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) September 16, 2015"
Either O'Brien spent the rest of the day pulling out what little hair he has remaining wondering who the leak is, or more likely the information came from a planned leak. The source Rapoport referenced could be a high-ranking official who wanted the information out as a way to announce the decision without O'Brien having to go back on his previous statements and answer a bunch of questions at the earlier press conferences.
Regardless of why or how the information got out, choosing to start Mallett was absolutely the correct decision.
Texans Move Ryan Griffin to IR, Call Up Chandler Worthy From the Practice Squad
"Texans signing KR-WR Chandler Worthy to active roster from practice squad, according to sources. At 53 players again with Ryan Griffin to IR
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 16, 2015 "
"TE Ryan Griffin goes on IR with designation to return. He'll miss next 7 games, could return for following game since #Texans bye is week 9.
— Adam Wexler (@awexler) September 15, 2015"
It was a tough break for the former sixth-round pick, who had moved up on the Texans depth chart ahead of players drafted several rounds earlier.
Last week against Kansas City, Ryan Griffin led all Texans tight ends in both snaps, with 36—C.J. Fiedorowicz had 34, Garrett Graham had 18—and receiving targets, with four.
Griffin is certainly a valuable contributor, but since each NFL team is only allowed to use the IR designated-to-return exemption on one player per season, was this the wisest move to make?
Obviously they want Griffin back if he's able to return, but what if J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork, Duane Brown, Brian Cushing, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Jackson or another, more crucial player to the Texans' success suffers a short-term injury later this season?
Since they've already used their exemption on Griffin, that newly injured player would have to either be put on the season-ending version of IR or kept on the active roster for several weeks at the cost of adding a healthy replacement; neither scenario is a good one.
It feels like a shortsighted move.
In the meantime, the Texans added receiver and special teams player Chandler Worthy to the active roster from the practice squad. Expect to see Worthy spend much more time on special teams against Carolina than wide receiver.
Texans Trade Keshawn Martin
With the addition of Chandler Worthy to the main roster, the Texans had one too many wide receivers and traded one to open up a spot for an offensive lineman.
"Texans trade wide receiver Keshawn Martin to New England he was active didn't play in season opener
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 16, 2015"
In his three years—plus one game this season—as a member of the Houston Texans, Keshawn Martin only had 38 receptions for 416 yards and three touchdowns total, so getting anything back in a trade for a player who has produced so little should be considered a positive.
Unfortunately, it just furthers the ongoing trend of the Texans' missing on middle-round picks.
Going back to the players selected between the third and fifth rounds in 2012, 2013 and 2014—it's too early for 2015, obviously—Martin, DeVier Posey, Brennan Williams, Sam Montgomery, Trevardo Williams and Louis Nix are no longer with the team.
That's half—six out of 12—of their middle-round picks who aren't even on the roster after less than four seasons.
That's not even factoring in other middle-round picks like Fiedorowicz, who is on the roster but hasn't produced, or a second-round pick who already flamed out like D.J. Swearinger.
If you ever wonder why the depth on the Texans roster isn't any better, look no further than their misses during the middle rounds of the draft.
Latest Injury News
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| Tom Savage | Shoulder | Injured Reserve |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | Injured Reserve |
| Ryan Griffin | Knee | IR/DFR |
| Mike Mohamed | Foot | Out |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Out |
| Lonnie Ballentine | Knee | Questionable |
| Xavier Su'a-Filo | Calf | Questionable |
| Carlos Thompson | Concussion | Questionable |
| Duane Brown | Thumb | Probable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
The most important injury for the Texans continues to be Arian Foster's, but a couple of others could factor in this week against Carolina.
At this point, the inability of the Texans linebackers to cover running backs or tight ends in space or down the field is hardly surprising, but it could leave them very vulnerable this week against another great receiving tight end.
Without question, Mike Mohamed is their best coverage linebacker, so his absence is a big problem going against Greg Olsen this week.
Foster's backups did a solid job against Kansas City last week with 15 carries for 70 yards—4.7 yards per carry—but weren't used much once the team fell behind big.
Foster obviously provides more than just running ability, so getting him back healthy remains the team's biggest injury priority.
Another player the team needs to return soon is second year guard Xavier Su'a-Filo. The second-round pick out of UCLA struggled in pass protection a bit last year but did some good things in run blocking and certainly will be an improvement compared to the overmatched Jeff Adams.
It's not his fault, but Adams is a natural tackle and is simply too tall to play guard. Su'a-Filo is certainly no threat to make the Pro Bowl roster anytime soon, but the performance of Adams against Kansas City was just pitiful.
The other injury that could play a factor over the coming weeks is the knee injury to tight end Ryan Griffin.
Griffin—or any other tight end for that matter—obviously hasn't played a huge role in the offense but did lead the team in both snaps and targets at tight end against Kansas City, so losing him is meaningful.
The Texans decided to call up receiver Chandler Worthy from the practice squad once Griffin was put on IR, so they're down to just two tight ends for next week.
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Key Matchups
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Greg Olsen vs. Texans Linebackers and Safeties
If you don't learn from history, you're doomed to repeat it.
If the Texans don't solve their issues with covering good receiving tight ends—which has been a problem for many years—then Greg Olsen will torch them.
Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham grab most of the headlines and time on the highlight reels as the marquee tight ends of the NFL, but don't sleep on Olsen, because he's quietly been one of the best at his position over the last several years.
Over the last three seasons, Olsen has averaged 75 receptions for 889 yards and six touchdowns. Just last season, Olsen was one of only two tight ends to top the 1,000-yard mark—Gronkowski led the position—and his 84 receptions ranked third among tight ends.
Blocking Panthers' Defensive End Charles Johnson
The Texans offensive line allowed five sacks during the Week 1 loss against Kansas City. Even when they weren't sacking the quarterback, the Chiefs' defenders were pushing lineman back into the pocket and hurrying up Brian Hoyer.
Over the last five seasons, Charles Johnson has averaged 10 sacks per year and could cause fits for the Texans offensive line, especially if the Panthers line him up across from Derek Newton.
Ryan Mallett isn't very mobile, so it'll be up to him to get rid of the ball on time to avoid pressure from Johnson.
Matchup X-Factors
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Texans X-Factor of the Week: Whitney Mercilus
The Texans' fourth-year linebacker made a few plays last week, like the batted pass early in the game shown in the picture above, but the team needs more from him this week and over the rest of the season.
One area where he and the Texans' other edge defenders struggled was with setting the edge against the Chiefs in run defense.
The Chiefs were able to get the corner on the Texans thanks to quarterback-speed options with Alex Smith, screen passes and sweeps to Jamaal Charles by cutting the legs off the edge defenders like Whitney Mercilus and John Simon.
Jadeveon Clowney actually set the edge really well a couple of times, but overall it was a problem.
If the Panthers are able to get the edge consistently against the Texans this week, it could lead to some big plays for Cam Newton running the ball off the option or just scrambling if the front seven doesn't keep lane integrity.
J.J. Watt seemed to handle the Chiefs' strategy of cut-blocking fairly well, but the rest of the team has to do a better job of keeping their feet to keep themselves alive in the play.
The play of Mercilus will be especially important in that area. Whenever he's on the field with Clowney at the same time, most likely Clowney will be asked to rush up the field from the weak side, while Mercilus will be in coverage or setting the edge on the strong side.
They have the players up front to stop the run if Mercilus is able to force the run back inside when it comes toward him; his play will be the difference between something like a short two-yard gain or a much bigger play.
Since Clowney played mostly on the Texans' sub-packages last week, they'll also need more from Mercilus as a pass-rusher in their base formations as well, if that remains the same this week.
Prediction: Texans 20, Panthers 10
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It would be a lie to express confidence in this prediction, but the Panthers just don't have enough firepower on offense to beat the Houston Texans.
The game should be close, but what the Texans have on both sides of the ball is just a little bit better than what the Panthers will put on the field.
Besides Greg Olsen, the Panthers don't have any skill position players that scare anybody.
Kelvin Benjamin is on IR, DeAngelo Williams is now a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jonathan Stewart didn't participate in practice on Wednesday (and hasn't been as explosive even when he's on the field in recent years) and Cam Newton has been very inconsistent.
Watching Newton play, it still doesn't seem like he's able to or asked to go through full progression reads. He doesn't anticipate well and at times stares down his intended target.
Last season, Newton ranked 29th in completion percentage, 22nd in yards per attempt, 26th in quarterback rating and 21st in interception percentage; he's not an efficient quarterback.
Let's also not forget that the Texans didn't allow a single point to the Chiefs in the second half last week and that 14 of their 27 points came off Hoyer turnovers with the benefit of an extremely short field.
How short, you may ask? Two of the Chiefs' scoring drives only went a combined three plays and 20 yards. Again, that's not each; two touchdown drives for Kansas City went a combined three plays and 20 yards.
This will sound cliche, but if the Texans offense protects the football and doesn't put the defense in impossible situations, they'll have a great chance to win a low-scoring game against Carolina.
Prediction: Texans 20, Panthers 10
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
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