Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

Stop me if you've heard this before: The Houston Texans have to run the ball to win the game.

I know saying a team has to run the ball to win a game is like saying a starting pitcher has to pitch well for a baseball team to win, but hear me out.

Regardless of which coach was on the sidelines, the Texans have always been a team that relied heavily upon the run as the main focus of their offensive scheme; that won't be any different in 2015.

In a conversation such as this, the discussion would normally be about running the ball well, meaning the yards-per-carry stat is used to quantify how efficient and effective the run game is. But more important than YPC in this game will be the actual number of rushing attempts.

The drop off in efficiency between Arian Foster and his backups last season was bigger than the state of Texas. Foster averaged 4.8 YPC while his top backup, Alfred Blue, averaged a lousy 3.1 per carry.

After looking at that stat, it should come as no surprise that the Texans' record without Foster in the lineup is awful. Since 2010, the Texans are 33-20 with him but just 2-13 without him on the field, highlighted by Warren Sharp.

So why is it so important for the Texans to run the ball often if they're not able to run the ball effectively?

With an offensive line that looked shaky during the preseason and an average, at best, quarterback in Brian Hoyer behind center, the last thing the Texans can afford to do is abandon the run and let the Chiefs' pass-rushers get up field without fear of a run going past them.

If the Texans abandon the run and become one-dimensional, the Chiefs will crush them. Simply put, the Chiefs defense is just way better than the Texans passing offense.

Running the ball will help shorten the game, give time for the Texans defense to rest, lower the chance of a costly turnover and set up a possible big play with the play-action fake.

When the Texans do run the ball against the Chiefs, the scheme should lean heavily toward the power concepts instead of the zone concepts.

Since 2010, Foster has been one of the best backs in the league behind the zone scheme with his excellent vision for the cutback lanes; Blue doesn't possess that same skill set.

While Foster is often able to turn nothing into something with his ability to patiently trot down the line before finding a hole and hitting it quickly, Blue took those same runs last year and ran the ball up the back of one of his blockers for, at best, a minimum gain far too often.

Blue doesn't have the vision, patience or acceleration to run the zone scheme like the Texans are able to do with Foster on the field.

So instead of inside and outside zone runs with Foster in a singleback formation, the Texans should use the power scheme more with a fullback on the field or a pulling guard acting as a lead blocker for Blue.

The Texans should also target their runs to the outside of the guards and away from Chiefs nose tackle Dontari Poe.

Last year, C.J. Anderson of the Denver Broncos ran for 168 yards against the Chiefs in Week 13, per Pro Football Reference.

Of Anderson's 32 rush attempts, his runs at or outside the tackles picked up 111 yards on 13 carries—8.5 YPC—while runs at or between the guards picked up 57 yards on 19 carries—3.0 YPC—against the Chiefs.

Texans center Ben Jones isn't big enough or strong enough to handle Poe inside, so running at Poe will be almost impossible unless they're willing to put a double-team block on him.

Defensive Game Plan

The Texans must stop Jamaal Charles to defeat the Chiefs.

Again, I know that is obvious analysis.

The Chiefs went 8-7 last season during the 15 games played by Charles. During those 15 games, Charles rushed for 86.9 YPC with eight touchdowns in their wins, rushing for just 48.3 YPC and only one touchdown during their losses.

Alex Smith is a solid quarterback but isn't capable of carrying a team on his back if the run game isn't working, and he has to throw the ball 30 to 40 times.

Like Charles, Smith played in 15 games for the Chiefs last year. Smith attempted 26.8 passes per game in their wins and 35.7 passes per game in their losses.

During the Chiefs' nine wins last season, they rushed for 145.44 yards per game; in their seven losses, they rushed for just 87 YPG; notice a pattern yet?

Kill the head and the body will die.

The Chiefs have some talented receiving targets on their roster with Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin, but the Texans must focus on stopping the run first.

With those talented targets in mind, the Texans shouldn't drop a safety into the box as an eighth defender as teams often do to stop a good running game. Instead, they should keep in their base defense more than they did last year.

The Texans frequently used sub-packages that took a linebacker off the field in favor of a defensive back last year, but considering the talent of the quarterback and running back they'll be facing in Week 1, that usage should be brought back a bit.

Led by excellent run defenders such as J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork and Brian Cushing, the Texans will have a good chance of at least slowing down the Charles-led rushing attack of the Chiefs.

Key Players and Matchups

Ben Jones vs. Dontari Poe

As mentioned earlier, Jones just isn't big enough or strong enough to block Poe one-on-one. Jones was a center in college but spent the first several years of his NFL career at guard.

The size and strength deficiency of Jones was magnified at guard, and the hope was he'd be a better fit at center.

While he's looked better at center, he's also been pushed around in short-yardage situations during this preseason, specifically when the Texans ran the ball seven times from inside the 3-yard line against San Francisco but failed to score.

Poe is a lot better than anyone Jones faced in that San Francisco game, so he's got a huge challenge in front of him.

Justin Houston vs. Duane Brown

Duane Brown is an excellent left tackle, but Justin Houston led the league in sacks last season.

Yes, he even had more than Watt.

From what we saw in the preseason, the play-calling on offense will likely try to help out the protection and the quarterback with shorter and quicker throws. That needs to be case in Week 1 because Houston can wreck a game plan in heartbeat.

Not every sack is on the offensive line, however. Brian Hoyer has to go into the game with the mindset he's facing a defense that ranked fifth in sacks last season, so it's on him to get rid of the ball on time.

J.J. Watt vs. Eric Fisher

One-time first overall pick of the draft Eric Fisher has struggled at left tackle and is being moved to right tackle this season. Unfortunately for Fisher, that means he'll face off against Watt during Week 1.

Watt beats even great offensive lineman, so if Fisher isn't able to step up his level of play, Alex Smith will be running for his life all game long.

Texans' Corners vs. Jeremy Maclin

The Chiefs didn't have a single wide receiver catch a touchdown pass last season. Their new addition at the position had 10 for the Philadelphia Eagles all by himself in 2014.

Maclin is a playmaker for sure, but he'll be facing the best group of cornerbacks the Texans have ever had during their brief history. With the defense having to focus on the run first, those corners will be put into a lot of one-on-one coverage situations.

Lose those one-on-one battles and give up several big plays and it won't matter how well the run defense plays against Kansas City.

Travis Kelce vs. Texans' Safeties

The Texans have struggled throughout their entire history to cover good receiving tight ends, which is exactly what they'll face on Sunday.

Last season, Travis Kelce ranked sixth in receiving yards among tight ends and finished with a better yards-per-catch number than Jimmy Graham; he's a legit threat.

Former Texans safety D.J. Swearinger struggled during his time in Houston in man coverage—which had to be part of why he was released this offseason—so how well their two new starters at the position perform in coverage on Kelce will be a big key to watch.

Prediction: Texans 17, Chiefs 13

I'm picking this game based on which defense will be better able to exploit the other team's weak spots along the offensive line and which defense is more likely to stop the other team's running game.

With J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork on the field, I'll take the Texans to do both of those things just a little bit better than the Chiefs.