Bengals vs. Raiders: What's the Game Plan for Cincinnati?
The Cincinnati Bengals and Oakland Raiders square off in O.co Coliseum on Sunday in what is one of the NFL's most intriguing opening-week matchups.
At a glance, the two organizations are heading in the same direction, albeit at different stages. Marvin Lewis and the Bengals have four consecutive postseason berths to their name. First-year Oakland coach Jack Del Rio appears to have things headed in the right direction, but his team has had nine head coaches since 2003, when the Bengals hired Lewis.
On the field provides the most intrigue, of course. A new coach means new looks for the Raiders. Simple health means diversity for the Bengals. It's impossible to accurately predict how both teams will game-plan given the lack of prior contests, but let's take a stab using some of the game's most important factors.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
Offensive Game Plan
Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson—who coached the Raiders to an 8-8 record in 2011, tied for the franchise best since 2003—and the Bengals are at their best when the ground game slams away without stopping.
In theory, the team shouldn't have many issues after Jeremy Hill rumbled for 1,124 yards and nine scores as a rookie despite only surpassing double-digit carries once in his first six games.
Then again, Oakland doesn't project to be the slouch that last year allowed backs to average 4.0 yards per carry on the way to 1,911 yards and 17 touchdowns. This offseason, the Raiders added former Arizona Cardinals defensive tackle Dan Williams, who ranked as the 16th tackle in the NFL with Pro Football Focus last year, sporting the eighth-best run defense grade.
So no, things might not be as simple on the ground. Keep in mind Del Rio also kicked elite pass-rusher Khalil Mack down to defensive end and added linebackers Malcolm Smith and Curtis Lofton this offseason in order to run a more traditional 4-3 alignment when not going with a 3-4 hybrid look.
In other words, Andy Dalton and the quick-hitting attack will need to be just that—quick.
Mack, even though he's changing positions, can fluster any offensive tackle in the league. PFF ranked him as the second-best 4-3 outside linebacker last year, when he tallied four sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 40 hurries. He went out at end in the team's third preseason game and notched two sacks.
So while it's great right tackle Andre Smith Jr. is back from injury and left tackle Andrew Whitworth enters after perhaps his best year as a pro, the line has its work cut out. The latter recently spoke about the challenge, per ESPN's Coley Harvey:
"[Mack] is a heck of a football player and it'll be a heck of a challenge. He plays the game the way you want to see it played. He puts his head down and plays extremely hard. He's a guy if you go out there and get behind a bunch, you're going to have a heck of a time trying to block him all day.
"
To make matters worse, the Raiders just used a one-year flier on elite pass-rusher Aldon Smith, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. If he plays, it's a wrinkle the Bengals haven't had time to adjust for—lack of a preseason or not, Smith has 44 career sacks in four seasons.
Timing is everything. This means Dalton needs to hit A.J. Green when it's there. It means working Marvin Jones (712 yards and 10 scores in 2013) into the thick of things. It means attacking the middle of the field with the healthy Tyler Eifert and mixing it up with Rex Burkhead in the slot.
The results of consistent pressure on Dalton could prove catastrophic, as they did last season:
| No pressure | 418 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 88.7 | 15.6 |
| Plays under pressure | 144 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 57.4 | -8.7 |
| When not blitzed | 393 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 79.0 | 6.3 |
| When blitzed | 169 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 88.9 | 0.7 |
On the road, the Bengals will be hard-pressed to keep perfect timing down to a science, which is where the ground game comes into play. Expect to see Hill shoulder the burden to keep the defense honest.
Defensive Game Plan
Defending against the Raiders is much more straightforward.
Folks know what the Cincinnati defense can do when healthy. Geno Atkins looks like his pre-knee tear self and Michael Johnson is probable, meaning the line can pin its ears back and get after Derek Carr.
Thanks to the ruptured Achilles suffered by Menelik Watson, the Raiders need to trot out Austin Howard at right tackle. He played guard last year in New York with the Jets and ranked as the 51st in the league with PFF.
While center Rodney Hudson and left tackle Donald Penn are some of the best in the league at their respective positions, look for the Bengals to overload the right side considering next to Howard is J'Marcus Webb, who has played in just nine games over the course of the past two seasons.
Cincinnati won't have much to worry about on the ground if the Raiders want to run the ball to balance things so long as they wrap up Latavius Murray well.
The problem for the Bengals will be Amari Cooper, the draft's fourth pick this year. The Alabama product had few issues this preseason, catching eight passes for 124 yards in limited action.
Adam Jones figures to take the assignment when possible, but the burden mostly falls on Dre Kirkpatrick, who gets the nod as starter this season with Leon Hall in the slot. Even if he's not on Cooper, who should be doubled most of the time, Kirkpatrick will need to be wary of Michael Crabtree.
Containing the Raiders figures to be very similar to containing Dalton. Carr is a great young talent who showed promise last year but absolutely crumbled under pressure almost as badly as Dalton.
As such, the Bengals won't hold back on the blitzes while the corners get physical to disrupt timing.
Key Players and Matchups
Andre Smith Jr.
Like it or not, Smith figures to see Mack plenty when the Raiders go into a nickel look. He's an unknown commodity at this point after seeing action in just nine games last year, ranking as the 53rd tackle in the league with PFF and battling a foot issue this preseason.
If Smith struggles, it might force the Bengals into running to a predictable side of the field or, even worse, fluster Dalton into making mistakes.
Michael Johnson
Go ahead and flip to the other side of the field. Johnson was an absolute dud in Tampa Bay last year while out of place and battling injuries, but he's back in town just in time to receive a tuneup against Howard and co.
Last time the Bengals had Johnson in the trenches, he ranked as the fifth-best 4-3 end in the league with PFF and ranked second in terms of run defense. He's elite in that regard, which will help the entire unit, but his ability to add pressure while Oakland's line focuses on Atkins in the middle will work wonders on the road.
Marvin Jones
A starting corner trio of DJ Hayden, Travis Carrie and Keith McGill isn't scaring anyone. The weakness means Oakland will need to throw more resources than usual into stopping Green, which opens things up for Jones.
Jones got back to form as the preseason went along, and it's no secret he can win one-on-one matchups all over the field. McGill might be an especially weak point the offense attempts to match with Jones considering he just allowed a 63-yard touchdown pass in Oakland's final preseason game.
Tyler Eifert
Along those same lines, the Raiders don't really have anyone who can run with an athlete such as Eifert.
Eifert went down with a season-ending injury in the opener one year ago but beforehand was a clear focal point of the offense with three catches. It figures to be much of the same here, especially when the Raiders throw resources at Green.
If Eifert can stretch the middle of the field and bring the safeties down, going over the top on the outside will prove much easier. Of course, he's going to play a critical role in the red zone too.
Russell Bodine
The horse is long dead, but Russell Bodine turned in a miserable preseason littered with snap issues after ranking as PFF's 35th center out of 41 as a rookie.
If the glaring weakness on what is otherwise an elite offensive line is this obvious to the naked eye, expect the Raiders to attempt to exploit the issue. Whether it's pre-snap movement meant to confuse or blitzes in his gap, Bodine will be a target on Sunday.
Prediction
Going across the country is never easy, and the Bengals have a miserable history when it comes to encounters with the Raiders.
Alas, some of the points above should equate to a narrow Cincinnati win. Hill won't have it as easy as some think on the ground, but the threat of a healthy passing attack will give him enough room to keep the offense on the field.
On defense, the Bengals will attack a weak line before Cooper can do too much damage. Pressure will force a still-learning Carr into mistakes too.
Oakland won't have an answer for Eifert. Nor will the corners be able to run with Jones opposite Green. The key is Dalton, who can make or break a game with mistakes that seem to cascade. His taking care of the ball is key, which goes back to a quick-hitting game plan to keep the Raiders on the backpedal, not pushing forward.
Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Oakland 24
Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of September 9. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
