5 Bold Predictions for Green Bay Packers' Week 1 Matchup
The Green Bay Packers will travel to Soldier Field on Sunday to take on division rival Chicago in what could prove to be one of the most lopsided matchups in the two teams' recent history.
Aside from the loss of wideout Jordy Nelson for the year with a torn ACL, the Packers, who finished 12-4 in 2014, return the majority of their starters on offense and defense from 2014, and the team enters Week 1 generally healthy.
Meanwhile, the Bears could be in worse shape to start the 2015 season than their 5-11 squad last season. In addition to losing defensive contributors defensive end Stephen Pea and cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings in the offseason, Chicago is also missing its 2015 first-round pick in wide receiver Kevin White.
The Bears will be starting rookie Eddie Goldman as the anchor in their new 3-4 defense, and the subsequent adjustment to the new scheme could take a season or more to produce the desired results.
Let's break down five bold predictions for the Packers' clash with the Bears on Sunday, a matchup in which the Packers are currently seven-point favorites, per Odds Shark.
Bears Will Score Fewer Than 20 Points Against Packers
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In the last 10 meetings between the Packers and the Bears, Green Bay held Chicago to 19 or fewer points seven times, per Pro Football Reference. In fact, in five of those meetings, Chicago only managed to score 15 or fewer points.
Green Bay may not have one of the most potent defenses in the league, but Sunday's matchup is poised to be a low-scoring affair for Chicago once again, partially because of the challenges Chicago is currently facing with its offense.
The first and biggest question mark is how Jay Cutler will perform under new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase. While Cutler threw for 20 or more touchdowns in each of his first four seasons as a starting NFL quarterback (two of which were with the Denver Broncos), he did so only once in his last four seasons with the Bears.
Chicago's receiving corps also looks to be in poor shape heading into Sunday's clash. Top wideout Alshon Jeffery (calf) was still limited on Thursday in only his second practice since Aug. 12, per ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson.
As of Thursday, Eddie Royal (hip) and Marquess Wilson (hamstring) are both limited, per the Bears' injury report.
Sure, Chicago can still try to get into the end zone with running back Matt Forte and tight end Martellus Bennett, but if those players are the Bears' only options on Sunday, they'll be easy for the Packers to blanket. Expect the Bears to walk away from this one with 19 or fewer points.
Matt Forte Will Gash Packers Defense for 100-Plus Yards
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Matt Forte had 1,000 or more yards in each of his last three seasons, and he'll likely get off to a fast start en route to his fourth against the Packers on Sunday.
Forte only had 100 or more yards in two games in 2014, but one of them came against the Packers in Week 4, when he ran for 122 yards. That was before Green Bay started using linebacker Clay Matthews inside on rushing downs. Even so, the Packers run defense remains suspect heading into 2015. The preseason wasn't a good indicator of the unit's true progress since last season, but Week 1 will be a better barometer.
Chicago's game plan is likely to factor Forte in heavily in Week 1, considering the fact that wideouts Jeffery, Royal and Wilson are all dealing with injuries in practice this week. On one hand, a one-dimensional game plan could allow the Packers to take away the run and force Jay Cutler to pass.
But Cutler still has a healthy Bennett at his disposal, and if it does turn out that Jeffery is cleared to play Sunday, the Packers won't be able to focus all their efforts on Forte.
Though Forte had a career-high 102 receptions in Marc Trestman's offense in 2014, his carries dipped to 266 attempts. That won't be the case under Fox and Gase.
"The run game is looking nice," Forte said in August about the new offensive system and his role in it, per Adam Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times.
What's nice for Forte could be a headache for the Packers on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers Will Throw for More Than 350 Yards
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Aaron Rodgers is considered one of the league's most proficient passers, but it might surprise you to realize that in 2014, he only threw for 350 or more yards twice: once in the Week 8 blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, in which he threw for a mind-boggling 418 yards, and again in Week 13, when he had 368 yards against a rather stout New England secondary.
And, in fact, in 14 games against the Bears, Rodgers has never thrown for 350 or more yards.
"Stout" is not the first word that comes to mind for Chicago's pass defense heading into 2015. The Bears lost cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings in the offseason.
While Kyle Fuller is coming off an impressive rookie season that saw him post four interceptions and 10 passes defensed, it's unclear how helpful Alan Ball will be on the other side replacing Jennings.
Though the Packers lost Nelson for the season, veteran James Jones rejoined an impressive group including Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and rookie Ty Montgomery, which won't be an easy corps for the Bears secondary to slow down.
There's also the question of how much Rodgers can trust and therefore go to second-year tight end Richard Rodgers this year. The tight end's development kept on an upward trajectory in his rookie season, and the quarterback Rodgers has been complimentary of his sure hands, as Robert Zizzo of Press-Gazette Media noted.
With all those weapons, it seems likely the signal-caller can light up Chicago's secondary in Week 1.
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Packers Secondary Will Limit Jay Cutler to 200 or Fewer Yards
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On five occasions in the 2014 season, Cutler passed for fewer than 200 yards in a game.
The first came in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, in which Cutler threw for 176 yards. Then, in Week 7, it was 190 yards against the Miami Dolphins. The next time was in Week 12: 130 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Finally, to finish the season, he threw for 194 yards in Week 15 against the New Orleans Saints and 172 yards in Week 17 against division rival Minnesota.
The mitigating factor here is Gase. In 2014, Trestman moved to a system that didn't rely on the long ball as much and asked Cutler to work down the field in a more horizontal than vertical fashion.
It's a shame, because Cutler has one of the biggest arms in the NFL, but he also has a propensity to throw picks: 18 of them in 2014, his highest since 2009, which was his first season in Chicago.
Gase and Fox have to slow the game down for Cutler and create a game plan that keeps the ball in Chicago's possession. That, theoretically, would lead to fewer attempts downfield and therefore fewer yards.
Plus, given the questionable status of most of Cutler's pass-catching targets for Sunday's game, the Bears will likely run it on the Packers with Forte. Thus, Cutler's final yards total could begin with a "1."
The Packers Will Outscore the Bears by Twice as Many Points
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On the Packers' side of the ball, offensively, you have players who finished near the top of their respective positions last season: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (No. 7), wide receiver Randall Cobb (No. 11) and running back Eddie Lacy (No. 7).
For the Bears, Forte came the closest, at No. 12, with Cutler and Jeffery falling further outside that top echelon.
The Bears don't have one of the league's worst offenses, by far. Jeffery, Forte and Bennett are solid weapons. But Cutler is inconsistent, at best, and the receiving corps is looking depleted, with rookie Kevin White on the PUP list, and Jeffery, Royal and Wilson all on the injury report for Week 1.
The Bears could get some points on the board with Bennett and Forte. But the Packers offense—even without Nelson—is loaded with weapons. This game could finish to the tune of something in the 34-17 range in the Packers' favor.
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