Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills: Full Buffalo Game Preview
The 2015 NFL regular season is finally upon us, and the Buffalo Bills are set to host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. After a 9-7 campaign in 2014, Buffalo reloaded its offense, revamped its coaching staff and maintained most of what was the league’s No. 4-ranked defense.
But the Bills face Indianapolis, a team that finished No. 2 in the AFC last year and starts Andrew Luck, a now-perennial MVP candidate with a wealth of new targets.
Buffalo finished the preseason with a 17-10 loss in Detroit. New head coach Rex Ryan named Tyrod Taylor the team’s starting quarterback after the team’s preseason victory over Pittsburgh in their third preseason game; Taylor beat out Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel for the job after the three competed feistily with one another throughout the preseason’s first three weeks.
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, New York
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
News and Notes
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First, the Bills’ offseason included several high-profile moves.
They replaced head coach Doug Marrone with Rex Ryan; they traded for star Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy; they signed receiver Percy Harvin and tight end Charles Clay. The goal appears to have been to give Ryan and his young quarterback as many offensive weapons as possible, under the assumption that a historically excellent defensive coach would not need much help with the team’s already-terrific defense.
Second, after Ryan named Taylor the starting quarterback, the Bills released Cassel. But they re-signed him on Tuesday and immediately named him their No. 2 starter—demoting Manuel to the No. 3 spot in a somewhat odd series of moves. Manuel, however, reportedly has no interest in leaving the team, despite his relegation, according to ESPN's Mike Rodak (via NFL.com's Mike Sessler).
Finally, Ryan—with a characteristic blend of passion and provocation—implored Buffalo fans to be loud on Sunday afternoon. In facing a probable Super Bowl contender, the team will need its fans to respond.
Injury Roundup
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If Buffalo’s preseason was dominated by its starting quarterback competition, the second-most important storyline was the team’s health. McCoy, Harvin, Clay and top receiver Sammy Watkins all battled injury throughout the preseason. It appeared as if nobody in Buffalo’s entire running backs corps could stay on the field, and injuries to key offensive players seemed to happen every few days.
However, Coach Ryan is optimistic McCoy will play Sunday, per Rodak. So will Watkins. Harvin sat out of practice on Wednesday, also per Rodak, but it was a scheduled rest day, and he is likely to play.
So, on the positive side, it doesn’t look like Buffalo will be missing any critical pieces on Sunday afternoon. Taylor will have a fair blend of experience and talent among his weapons, and the Bills are fully capable of knocking off the Colts.
However, the injuries do bear watching. Not only is Buffalo fairly thin at running back (particularly after cutting Fred Jackson) and tight end, but losing Watkins or McCoy would leave a first-time starting quarterback on the field without his best help.
Key Matchups
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Colts’ RB Frank Gore vs. Bills’ defensive line
Indianapolis has a star in Andrew Luck. The Colts passed the ball for more yards than any other team last year, and Luck has weapons in T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson. But they ranked just 22nd in rushing, so the Indianapolis front office signed Frank Gore. And Gore will be vital on Sunday.
On the one hand, if the Bills stifle Gore and pressure Luck, they force Indianapolis into a one-dimensional game plan against a pretty good defense. On the other hand, if Gore has even fair success on the ground, things will open up for a preternaturally talented quarterback who already doesn’t need much time in the pocket.
Of course, the Colts’ passing game was successful last year, so stifling the run alone probably won’t be enough. That brings us to the other key matchup.
Ronald Darby vs. Colts receivers
I’ve written about Darby and his up-and-down preseason before, so I won’t get into it now. But Darby is Buffalo’s likely weak spot on defense, and Luck has several talented targets. If Darby plays well, which he did at times in the preseason, it will make an enormous difference in slowing the Colts. But if he falls apart in coverage and draws penalties the way he did at other times, Luck will pick on him all day.
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Buffalo X-Factor
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Tyrod Taylor
Unsurprisingly, the Bills’ X-factor is their newly anointed starting quarterback. Taylor was entirely impressive during the preseason: 24-of-31 passing, 236 yards and zero interceptions. He showed improved pocket presence and arm strength, compiled substantial yards on the ground and extended plays.
Indianapolis was the league’s 19th-best defense last year. Opposing quarterbacks completed over 58 percent of their passes and threw for 27 touchdowns. While the Colts finished No. 2 in the AFC and boast a terrific offense, their defense is far from insurmountable.
Taylor needs to do two things: not turn the ball over and extend plays. The Bills do not need 400 yards and six touchdowns. They need Taylor to manage the game, make smart throws and trust his running backs, particularly McCoy.
Prediction
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Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 17
The Colts are favorites here, and it’s not hard to see why. They lost in the AFC title game, while Buffalo missed the playoffs. They have Andrew Luck; Buffalo has Tyrod Taylor. The odds are good Luck and crew simply score too many points for a novice quarterback to contend with.
But the Bills start the season with games against Indianapolis and New England, the conference’s top teams last year. Buffalo’s defense is very much for real. The Bills' new coach is a defensive whiz with a penchant for unexpectedly winning big games. Their new running back is, when healthy, probably the league’s most dynamic player. And the team hasn’t made the playoffs since 1999.
The stakes are high, and I think Buffalo can pull it off.
They need to bottle up Gore, and Darby needs to play well. But they don’t need to guard everyone. Last year, New England crushed the Colts in Week 11. And the Patriots’ defensive strategy appeared to be “let Coby Fleener get the ball, and guard everyone else.” Fleener, the Colts’ tight end, finished with seven catches and 144 yards—and his team lost by 22. Perhaps the Bills can try something similar and knock off the Colts to start their hyped-up 2015 season.
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