5 Bold Predictions for New York Jets' Week 1 Matchup
The new-look New York Jets are one of several teams that are trying to turn over a new leaf in 2015. A new head coach, new general manager, new coaching staff and new mentality hope to breed new, improved results for the team this season.
The Jets' Week 1 showdown with the Cleveland Browns is their first chance to make a first impression.
Could the Jets have drawn it up any better? They could use this game as an opportunity to put the NFL on notice that these are not your father's Jets or even your older sibling's Jets. With the Browns trying to overcome years of futility, the Jets should be smelling blood in the water.
That could mean a few surprisingly big performances from some of the Jets' most prominent players. Here's a guess as to some of the eye-popping things that could happen on Sunday.
Chris Ivory Will Rush for 150 Yards and 2 Touchdowns
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Browns head coach Mike Pettine has coached two potent defenses over the past two years. The Buffalo Bills defense ranked fourth in passing yards and third in net yards per pass attempt in 2013. In 2014, the Browns defense ranked eighth in passing yards and fifth in net yards per pass attempt.
Where they have not been so great is against the run. The Bills ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in yards per rush attempt in 2013. In 2014, the Browns ranked dead last in rushing yards and 28th in yards per rush attempt.
Chris Ivory has been a battering ram for the Jets offense, bruising his way to a combined 1,654 yards, 4.4 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns on 380 carries over the past two seasons. He is undoubtedly the best thing going in the Jets backfield at the moment. Despite all those numbers, Ivory has only eclipsed more than 100 rushing yards in five games with the Jets and has only rushed for more than multiple touchdowns on one occasion.
Over the past two years, however, Ivory has been splitting carries with Bilal Powell and Chris Johnson, but he is head and shoulders better than the Jets' other backs. If Ivory doesn't get a vast majority of the carries, the Jets have done something terribly wrong.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Will Average Less Than 6 Yards Per Pass Attempt
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Thanks to the recent arrival of some talented skill-position players, the Jets passing offense is expected to be much more effective in 2015 than it ever was under head coach Rex Ryan. Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Quincy Enunwa, Jeremy Kerley and the rest of the Jets pass-catchers are a much more capable group than any the Jets have had in recent years.
Don't be surprised, though, if the Jets offense is a little slow coming out of the gate.
The Browns were one of the league's best pass defenses in 2014, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt and 5.8 net yards per attempt. Most of last year's group returns in 2015, with the exception of slot cornerback Buster Skrine (who now suits up for the Jets).
Likewise, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been known to put up low averages in yards per attempt because of his lack of downfield accuracy. From 2012 to 2014, he averaged less than seven yards per pass attempt in 20 of a possible 39 games and less than six yards per pass attempt in eight games.
Don't be surprised if Fitzpatrick doesn't look like the second coming of Joe Namath in his first regular-season game with the Jets.
Antonio Cromartie Will Intercept 2 Passes
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Antonio Cromartie has intercepted a pass in two of the past five Week 1 games he's participated in. Against the Browns, he may have an opportunity to match that production in one game.
Not only will the Browns most likely be throwing away from Darrelle Revis, but they'll also be throwing to the likes of Andrew Hawkins (5'7"), Travis Benjamin (5'10") and Brian Hartline (6'2"). There's also Terrelle Pryor, the 6'4" 223-pound former quarterback who could be a factor in Wildcat packages.
But no matter which receivers are on the field and no matter who is throwing the ball, Cromartie will probably be on the field every time a Browns quarterback drops back to throw on Sunday.
Cromartie struggled in the preseason, giving up six completions on seven throws into his coverage, and although he gave up a touchdown, he also nabbed an interception. His overall skills may be fading, but his ball skills are still a prevalent part of his game. So is his physicality at the line of scrimmage. Those traits, along with some anticipated struggles from the Browns offense, should help him have a solid game in Week 1.
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The Jets Defense Will Allow Fewer Than 200 Passing Yards
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Josh McCown. Johnny Manziel. Austin Davis.
No matter which of the three ends up starting against the Jets, none of them have what it takes to beat this defense.
McCown is the most likely starter. He had exactly one hot streak in his entire career as quarterback of the Chicago Bears— an eight-game set in which he threw 13 touchdowns against one interception. One problem: In his other 61 career games, he's thrown 48 touchdowns against 58 interceptions.
Manziel has proved nothing as an NFL quarterback. He's also dealing with a sore throwing elbow, and according to Pat McManamon of ESPN.com, he threw on Monday for the first time since August 23. The Jets could feast on some off-target throws if he's not yet back to 100 percent.
The Browns signed Davis on Monday as an insurance plan in the event that McCown is injured and Manziel can't play, but he is only marginally less formidable than McCown. Davis was impressive in 2014, completing 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions in eight games as the St. Louis Rams' starter.
But with a marginal group of skill-position players and with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie roaming the secondary, the Browns offense may have a difficult time getting off the ground.
The Jets Will Win by Double Digits
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OK, so this prediction isn't off-the-charts bold, but it is bolder than you'd think.
Per Odds Shark, the Vegas line on this game is a three-point Jets win, so anything more than that is a vote of confidence in the New York's ability to be better than just its home-field advantage.
Likewise, over the past two years, the Jets have only won four games by more than one score. Two of those games were against the Miami Dolphins in season finales, one of them was against the Oakland Raiders, and the last was against—you guessed it—the Browns.
The Jets don't need to get an explosive performance from their offense; if their defense does its job and stifles the Browns offense, the Jets could win by double digits simply with a 10-0 final score.
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com.
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