The 1 Game Most Likely to Derail Every Top 25 Team's Season
We’re only one week into the 2015 college football season, but the speculation has already begun. Following No. 1 Ohio State’s 42-24 romp over Virginia Tech on Monday night, the Buckeyes’ schedule was scrutinized intensely. Ohio State doesn’t play Wisconsin or Nebraska this season, and the natural question was asked: When would the next real opportunity to topple the Buckeyes occur?
The same question could be asked about any team in the Associated Press Top 25, which saw some shuffling when it was released Tuesday. As we learned in 2014 with the likes of Boise State, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, TCU and others, teams can come out of nowhere for a special season. But one sloppy game can easily derail those great campaigns.
Let’s take a look at the one game most likely to derail each Top 25 team’s season.
25. Mississippi State; Sept. 26 at Auburn
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One year removed from spending four weeks as the nation’s No. 1 team, expectations are a bit lower at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs brought back just seven starters from 2014’s 10-3 team, although Heisman Trophy finalist Dak Prescott is one of those players.
Mississippi State shook off a strong challenge from Southern Miss for a 34-16 win at Hattiesburg in its season opener. Dan Mullen’s team moved back into the Top 25 this week, although it’s hard to consider the Bulldogs a national title contender this early. A reasonable goal would be contending for the SEC West title again.
They face a tough opening month with Saturday’s visit from LSU and Sept. 26’s trip to Auburn. The Bulldogs beat Auburn 45-31 last fall, but a trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium could all but end their division title hopes, depending on how this week unfolds.
24. Utah; Oct. 24 at USC
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Following a 9-4 season, Utah was picked in the middle of a tough Pac-12 South despite returning 11 starters, including dynamic tailback Devontae Booker. Kyle Whittingham’s Utes made the most of their time in the national spotlight, spoiling Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan debut with a 24-17 victory.
That vaulted them into the Top 25, but it’s up to them to extend their stay beyond a brief cameo. With Utah State and a trip to Fresno State up next, it isn’t unreasonable to consider a 3-0 start entering Sept. 26’s trip to Oregon.
However, that’s a tough assignment, and so is the Oct. 24 trip to Southern California. If Utah hopes to compete in the Pac-12 South, the trip to Los Angeles is the most likely to end hopes of a division title.
23. Tennessee; Oct. 10 vs. Georgia
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Butch Jones’ rebuilding project is bearing fruit in Knoxville. Last fall, Jones took a young Tennessee team to its first bowl since 2010, and it’s fair to say expectations are higher in 2015. The Volunteers are talented and picked near the top of the SEC East. They’ll get a measuring-stick game this week when Oklahoma comes to Neyland Stadium, but the real test will begin with the SEC slate in late September.
Florida should be a winnable game, but Tennessee has lost 10 consecutive games in the series. That’s followed by a tough two-game homestand against a physical Arkansas team and East favorite Georgia.
If the Vols hope to win the East, they’ll likely have to take down Georgia to do so. The Bulldogs own a five-game win streak against Tennessee, although the last four defeats have come by eight points or less.
Still, until Jones’ bunch proves it can win big games against the Bulldogs, it’s smarter to pick against them in such situations.
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22. Arizona; Nov. 7 at USC
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Arizona hopes to build on 2014’s impressive run under Rich Rodriguez, which saw it finish 10-4, win the Pac-12 South and make the Fiesta Bowl. A 42-32 season-opening win over Texas-San Antonio came with a big price: Star linebacker Scooby Wright III suffered a torn meniscus and could miss up to four weeks recovering.
Without him, a Wildcats defense that was porous at times last fall could struggle. Arizona’s first real test comes Sept. 26 when UCLA visits. A year ago, the Cats won the South with two losses, claiming the title on the final regular-season Friday with a win over rival Arizona State.
With UCLA and Southern Cal both improved, their margin of error might be slimmer this fall. A Nov. 7 visit to Southern Cal will be crucial. If quarterback Cody Kessler and the Trojans offense are in a groove, that’s the game most likely to trip up the hopes of a division title repeat.
21. Missouri; Oct. 17 at Georgia
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With consecutive SEC East titles in their back pocket, no one should sleep on the Missouri Tigers. And it appears the Tigers are finally getting a little respect. An easy season-opening win over FCS foe Southeast Missouri State allowed the Tigers to move up three spots in this week’s poll, giving them a Top 25 foothold.
Missouri lost only one SEC game last season, a 34-0 home whitewashing at Georgia’s hands, but claimed the East title by winning out while the Bulldogs added a stumble against Florida to an earlier loss against South Carolina.
Georgia is improved this season and a legit Top 10 program. The trip to Athens on Oct. 17 will be anything but easy. While it’s wrong to count the Tigers out, it’s the most likely way to end Missouri’s hopes of an SEC East three-peat.
20. Boise State; Oct. 16 at Utah State
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Following 2014’s 12-2 season capped by a Fiesta Bowl win, Boise State began 2015 by showing the nation it had no intent of fading quietly into the "Group of Five" background. A hard-fought 16-13 win over Washington and former coach Chris Petersen established the Broncos as the favorite to snag the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff’s access bowls for the second consecutive season.
Boise still has trips to BYU and Virginia remaining this month, but both are winnable games.
A year ago, Boise lost only one Mountain West Conference game, a 28-14 decision to Air Force. But the Falcons return only four starters on defense and won’t be as formidable a foe on Boise’s blue turf.
The biggest trap game? An Oct. 16 trip to Utah State. With veteran starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton leading eight returning offensive starters, the Aggies will be no easy out at home in Logan.
19. Oklahoma; Nov. 14 at Baylor
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Following a disappointing 8-5 2014 season, Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma offensive reboot got off to a solid start Saturday. The Sooners rolled to a 41-3 win, and new starting quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 388 yards, setting an Oklahoma passing record for season openers.
The good vibes will be tested by this week’s trip to an improved Tennessee team, but that doesn’t affect Oklahoma’s hopes of a Big 12 title. The October schedule is largely navigable, given Texas’ struggles; the most difficult test could be West Virginia’s visit on Oct. 3.
But the real fun will come in November. A year ago, Baylor ripped the Sooners 48-14 in Norman. OU must seek revenge in Waco against a high-powered scheme that should be gunning for a College Football Playoff spot. It’s the most likely spot for Stoops’ revamped bunch to fall off the tightrope.
18. Arkansas; Oct. 10 at Alabama
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The good vibes are back in Fayetteville. Following 2014’s 7-6 record that marked Arkansas’ first bowl win since 2011, expectations are higher for Bret Bielema’s third season, especially with eight starters returning on offense. A season-opening rout of UTEP did nothing to dim that enthusiasm, but the stakes are higher this fall.
And the toughest road lies ahead. When the SEC slate begins in late September, there’s hardly an easy out in the bunch, starting with a neutral-site AT&T Stadium tilt against Texas A&M.
A four-game stretch with A&M, at Tennessee, at Alabama and home versus Auburn could make or break the hopes of division contention. Arkansas played Alabama off its feet in a 14-13 loss last year, but a trip to Tuscaloosa is a different animal entirely.
Especially in the middle of such a tough stretch, a showdown with Nick Saban’s physical bunch feels like the game that could take the Razorbacks out of the SEC West race.
17. Ole Miss; Oct. 31 at Auburn
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Following a nine-win season that ended in the Peach Bowl, Ole Miss is aiming even higher this fall. And a season-opening 76-3 rout of UT-Martin with new quarterback Chad Kelly at the helm and a healthy Laquon Treadwell at receiver shows that the Rebels, who returned 16 starters, haven’t missed a beat.
Hugh Freeze’s group is a legit contender for the SEC West. Of course, the SEC slate is unforgiving, starting with a Sept. 19 trip to Alabama, which will have a feel of revenge following last season’s upset loss in Oxford.
However, Alabama won the West last fall despite that defeat, so we’ll chalk it up as a loss and keep the Rebs in the race. While Texas A&M will be a tough test Oct. 24, the knockout blow could come Oct. 31 at Auburn. 2014's narrow defeat will motivate the Rebels, but taking out Gus Malzahn’s high-powered offense is no easy task.
16. Texas A&M; Oct. 17 vs. Alabama
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Texas A&M began 2015 out of the AP Top 25, but voters gave the Aggies plenty of respect this week, and with good reason. In new defensive coordinator John Chavis’ first game on the sidelines, the Aggies D rattled a high-powered Arizona State offense, keying a 38-17 rout.
If Kevin Sumlin can get more consistent play from the offense and sophomore starting quarterback Kyle Allen, A&M will be a force to be reckoned with in the SEC West. Of course, there’s the matter of actually succeeding against SEC offenses first.
The Aggies begin with a neutral-site game against Arkansas and then have a two-game homestand against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide both embarrassed A&M last fall, with State taking a 48-31 win and Alabama blanking the Aggies 59-0.
A&M won’t have much margin for error to chase an SEC West title, and here’s betting the margin will run out against the Crimson Tide. Fifty-nine points is a pretty steep margin to reverse in one season, even with a much-improved defense.
15. Georgia Tech; Oct. 24 vs. Florida State
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Georgia Tech had an impressive 2014 season, finishing 11-3 with an ACC Coastal Division title, wins over rivals Clemson and Georgia and an Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State. The charge now? Do it again, with an even tougher schedule.
The Yellow Jackets trade Georgia Southern for Notre Dame, and N.C. State for Florida State. Sounds fair, right?
While Notre Dame won’t count against the ACC record, adding Florida State reduces the margin of error in the Coastal.
The Yellow Jackets also must travel to Clemson, where they have won just once in their last five trips. Their only win in the last decade? A 21-17 win in 2008 in Dabo Swinney’s first game as Clemson interim head coach. That makes the Florida State game even more important. By late October, Jimbo Fisher’s young team will have had a chance to find itself, particularly offensively, which could be trouble for the Jackets. The Coastal will give Tech some room for error, but its schedule reduces that significantly.
14. LSU; Nov. 7 at Alabama
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Following an 8-5 2014 season, we still don’t know for certain what Les Miles has in Baton Rouge. Why? Persistent thunderstorms washed out LSU’s 2015 season opener against FCS foe McNeese State after just 11 plays, and the game will not be made up. Regardless, LSU stayed at No. 14 in the poll entering this week’s season and SEC opener at Mississippi State.
You can afford a loss in the rough-and-tumble SEC West, but you really can’t afford two if you want to win the division. Even if LSU splits with the Bulldogs and Auburn the following two weeks, the schedule opens up before a Nov. 7 showdown at Alabama that is traditionally one of the most physical games on the college football calendar.
Expect the same this fall, and although LSU should be improved, it’s once again the game that could spell the end of SEC West title hopes.
13. UCLA; Nov. 28 at USC
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With consecutive 10-win seasons, UCLA is back on the national radar under coach Jim Mora. While the Bruins lost star defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes to a torn ACL, true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen was stellar in a 34-16 romp over Virginia, which only raised expectations.
With 16 starters returning, UCLA will be a strong contender in the Pac-12 South. A year ago, the Bruins finished a game behind Arizona with a 6-3 league record. The South should be stronger this fall with less room for error. Trips to Arizona and Stanford in the first three weeks of league play will be tough, but the division could come down to the last week of the regular season, just as it did last fall.
That means a trip to cross-town rival Southern California, which will surely be in contention for the title as well. UCLA ripped the Trojans 38-20 in 2014, but this could be a make-or-break game for hopes of a Pac-12 title and potential College Football Playoff berth.
12. Clemson; Nov. 7 vs. Florida State
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Entering 2015, Clemson has positioned itself as a contender for the ACC championship and a College Football Playoff berth. Dabo Swinney’s bunch has won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons and held its preseason No. 12 ranking following a rout of FCS foe Wofford.
A roster that returned just five starters, however, took another blow when returning 1,000-yard receiver Mike Williams sustained a small neck fracture that could sideline him for the entire season in a goal-post collision. However, the presence of star quarterback Deshaun Watson and a deep offense means the Tigers remain a title factor.
Home games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech help, but Clemson will have to get over the hump against Florida State. The Tigers haven’t beaten FSU since 2011, and the Seminoles embarrassed Clemson 51-14 in their last trip to Memorial Stadium.
Nov. 7’s visit will be crucial to those hopes. In each of the last six seasons, the winner of Clemson-FSU has won the Atlantic, and the game’s winner has won the ACC in four consecutive seasons. Expect both trends to continue this season. Without a win, the season would be empty for the Tigers.
11. Florida State; Nov. 7 at Clemson
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Following a three-year run that included a trio of ACC titles, a BCS National Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance, Florida State is reloading a bit in 2015 following a large exodus of talent via graduation and the NFL draft. In fact, the Seminoles returned only 10 starters, three on offense.
With new starting quarterback Everett Golson, a Notre Dame transfer, in the fold, the Noles were impressive in an opening-night rout of Texas State. But tougher challenges await, starting in October with a three-game run against Miami, Louisville and at Georgia Tech.
But as it has for the last six seasons, the ACC and the ACC Atlantic will come down to the winner of the Clemson-Florida State game on Nov. 7. While FSU ripped the Tigers 51-14 in Memorial Stadium two years ago, Clemson will likely be the favorite this time around. It’s the game that could end the Seminoles’ ACC title reign, if they’re not careful.
10. Georgia; Nov. 14 at Auburn
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Is this the year Mark Richt and Georgia break through? The Bulldogs haven’t won an SEC title since 2005, and the national title drought sits at 35 years and counting. 2014’s 10-win season didn’t soothe any nerves, given the rivalry losses to Florida, Georgia Tech and South Carolina.
But 2015 could be a different story entirely. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent, led by sophomore tailback and Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Chubb, and they flashed potential in a rain-shortened rout of Louisiana-Monroe.
Oct. 3’s visit from Alabama could be a season-defining game, but regardless of results, this team can afford a loss and still win the SEC and make the College Football Playoff.
The most important game will be a difficult Nov. 14 trip to Auburn. Win that game, and the road to Atlanta is likely set. Lose, and another disappointing winter will set in over Athens.
9. Notre Dame; Oct. 17 vs. USC
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2014 was a disappointing up-and-down season for Notre Dame, which finished 8-5 with a Music City Bowl win over LSU. Last week, the Fighting Irish quickly set about proving that there was little carryover from that campaign, dominating Texas 38-3. It was the first step in showing that Brian Kelly’s team, now led by junior quarterback Malik Zaire, is College Football Playoff-worthy.
A year ago, no team made the playoff with two losses, giving the Irish little room for mistakes against a difficult schedule. A visit from Georgia Tech won’t be easy, and neither will Oct. 3’s much-anticipated trip to Clemson.
But the real make-or-break game could come Oct. 17 when Southern California visits. The rest of the slate beyond the Trojans is manageable. Lose that game, however, and a playoff berth becomes unlikely.
8. Southern California; Nov. 21 at Oregon
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After five years of dealing with the effects of a serious NCAA probation that stripped 30 scholarships over three seasons, Southern California is back on the verge of national prominence. Steve Sarkisian has a loaded roster led by senior quarterback Cody Kessler and do-everything sophomore cornerback/returner Adoree’ Jackson, and the Trojans are a favorite to win the Pac-12.
A Sept. 26 trip to Arizona State (which defeated USC 38-34 on a last-play Hail Mary last year) will be challenging, as will an Oct. 17 trip to Notre Dame, despite USC’s 49-14 rout of the Fighting Irish last fall.
But the game that could decide the Trojans’ fate is a Nov. 21 trip to Oregon. With a regular-season finale against UCLA on tap next, this game could play a huge role in the Trojans’ hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and making the College Football Playoff.
7. Oregon; Nov. 21 vs. USC
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Coming off a national runner-up finish, Oregon remains a force to be reckoned with in college football. The Ducks plugged FCS All-American Vernon Adams into the quarterback role vacated by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota and didn’t miss a beat in a 61-42 victory over Adams’ old Eastern Washington team, although giving up 42 points to an FCS team is something to be concerned about.
They’ll get their first real test this week at No. 5 Michigan State, the best nonconference matchup of the season. The Spartans will be seeking revenge for 2014’s 46-27 loss in Eugene, and East Lansing will be a hostile environment for Adams.
Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has great respect for Adams, comparing him to another talented Pacific Northwest quarterback in Russell Wilson, per Andrew Greif of the Oregonian.
"What I saw Russell Wilson do is improvise very effectively when he played us," Dantonio said. "You see him do that on a weekly basis, really. I think that's what you see Adams do. He can improvise. His stature is more like Russell Wilson's. His quick body is powerful. He looks powerful."
However, Oregon can afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff, as we learned last year following the Ducks’ home upset at Arizona’s hands. They likely can’t afford two, which makes a Nov. 21 visit from Southern California crucial. On paper, this looks like a Pac-12 title game preview. But this time around, Oregon wouldn’t have as much time to recover from a loss before the playoff field is set. It’s crucial that the Ducks take care of business at home, but Cody Kessler and USC’s air attack will test their defense.
6. Auburn; Oct. 24 at Arkansas
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Following a disappointing 8-5 2014 campaign, Auburn made a solid statement in a 31-24 season-opening win over Louisville. New starting quarterback Jeremy Johnson was shaky, throwing three interceptions, but new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp’s unit stepped up huge, contributing a defensive touchdown and setting up another with an interception.
Expectations are high on the Plains in 2015, and Muschamp's presence and an improved pass rush are big reasons why.
Johnson received plenty of preseason accolades, but he still must prove himself as a reliable leader for the offense. He’ll get two big chances in September showdowns with Mississippi State and at LSU. For Auburn to win the SEC West and have a shot at the College Football Playoff, it’ll likely have to get through its league slate 7-1 at worst. That’s a difficult task with a schedule that closes with Georgia and Alabama.
However, even October, which closes with a trip to Arkansas and a home date against Ole Miss, is difficult. The Oct. 24 visit to Arkansas could be particularly perilous and a game that does serious damage to hopes of a West title, if Gus Malzahn’s group isn’t careful.
5. Michigan State; Nov. 21 at Ohio State
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Michigan State is 25-3 with a Big Ten title, a Cotton Bowl win and a Rose Bowl win over the past two-plus seasons, but the Spartans want more. They’re focused on making the College Football Playoff, and Saturday’s visit from No. 7 Oregon will be a huge benchmark in that quest. However, even with a loss to the Ducks, Mark Dantonio’s team won’t be eliminated from CFP contention.
One game truly matters: Nov. 21’s visit to Ohio State, which will likely decide the Big Ten East title and, ultimately, the Big Ten championship. The Spartans couldn’t keep up with the Buckeyes last year in a 49-37 loss, and with Braxton Miller’s return to health and move to wide receiver, Ohio State’s offense is even tougher to stop this fall. If Michigan State falls short of its goals, that game will be the reason why.
4. Baylor; Nov. 27 at TCU
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One year ago, Baylor came oh-so-close to the College Football Playoff. The Bears finished 11-1, with their only blemish a 41-27 defeat at West Virginia. That wasn’t enough for the playoff committee, which left Baylor and fellow Big 12 champ TCU out in favor of Ohio State.
Quarterback Bryce Petty is gone, but Seth Russell will fit in perfectly with the nation’s highest-scoring offense from 2014, as a 56-21 season-opening rout of SMU showed. The Bears get the Mountaineers at home as well as Oklahoma, so the biggest hurdle will be a Black Friday showdown with the Horned Frogs.
If both teams take care of business as expected, this could be a de facto Big 12 title game and a CFP play-in game. It’ll be a big deal, and only one team will walk away from Fort Worth satisfied.
3. TCU; Nov. 27 vs. Baylor
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TCU had college football’s best turnaround last fall, going from 4-8 to 11-1 in the regular season and narrowly missing the College Football Playoff. The only thing that kept them out? A 61-58 defeat to Baylor that saw the Bears score 24 points in the game’s final 11 minutes for a stunning comeback win.
One year later, Baylor and TCU are the clear class of the Big 12 again, but only one team, at most, will likely make the CFP. A Nov. 21 visit to Oklahoma is potentially treacherous, but the real test will be when Baylor visits Nov. 27 for a Black Friday battle.
With the nation’s top two scoring offenses from a year ago on hand, this will likely be another shootout. And it’s the only thing that can realistically keep the Horned Frogs from finishing their quest for a playoff bid in 2015.
2. Alabama; Nov. 28 at Auburn
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Despite a raft of NFL draft departures, Alabama once again has one of the nation’s most talented rosters. That’s what recruiting at the level Nick Saban and Co. have done does for you. The Crimson Tide showed that against Wisconsin, riding physical, fast tailback Derrick Henry to a 35-17 season-opening victory at AT&T Stadium in north Texas.
Alabama has one of the nation’s toughest schedules, too, but as it proved last fall following a loss at Ole Miss, it can afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff from the SEC West. Two losses? Unlikely.
So perhaps the Tide slip up in a hostile road environment like Georgia or Texas A&M. The season-ending Iron Bowl showdown at Auburn will loom as a crucial game regardless. Saban’s bunch will return to the scene of the infamous “Kick Six” with plenty on the line, like an SEC title and CFP berth. Will weird things happen again? This is the Iron Bowl, after all. It could be a game Tide fans once again remember for all the right (or wrong) reasons.
1. Ohio State; Nov. 21 vs. Michigan State
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Ohio State’s 2015 season opener against Virginia Tech was highly anticipated, not only because it would bring clarity to the defending national champion's quarterback situation, but also because the showdown with the Hokies was one of the most challenging games on the Buckeyes’ 2015 schedule.
And after Ohio State turned a 17-14 halftime deficit into a 42-24 win, the question remains: Can anyone beat Urban Meyer’s bunch? After all, the Buckeyes were without a quartet of suspended players led by All-American defensive end Joey Bosa, who’ll be back for this week’s game against Hawaii.
A quick look at the schedule offers one potential slip-up: Nov. 21’s Big Ten East showdown with Michigan State. The Spartans are clearly the second-best team in the Big Ten, and the best team remaining on the 2015 schedule. Of course, a year ago, Ohio State rolled past the Spartans 49-37, and with Braxton Miller at receiver, the offense is even better. But we had to pick a game, and that’s the only logical candidate.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
