Revised Expectations for Arsenal After 1st Month of Season

At the outset of the 2015/16 season, there was more than hope that Arsenal might mount a title challenge—there was expectation.

After an impressive finish to 2014/15 and a second consecutive FA Cup win, Arsenal enjoyed a strong pre-season. In the transfer market, there were no major departures, with fringe squad members such as Abou Diaby and Lukas Podolski the only players moved on.

Recruitment was efficient and impressive, with Petr Cech arriving from Chelsea in a high-profile deal that ended Arsenal’s decade-long search for a worthy No. 1.

On the pitch, things were proceeding well, too. Arsenal claimed a hat-trick of preseason silverware, lifting the Asia Trophy, Emirates Cup and Community Shield in succession. The last of those victories seemed particularly significant, with the Gunners defeating champions Chelsea at Wembley.

It was Arsene Wenger’s first-ever victory over Jose Mourinho and seemed like a positive portent ahead of the new campaign.

Understandably, optimism in the camp was high. Speaking after the Community Shield win, Wenger told Arsenal.com:

"

Confidence-wise it’s good, it’s positive, and it allows you to focus on your next game with belief. It shows your players that they’re doing something right and apart from that, now the Premier League starts. We have to turn up with the needed and demanded performance in every single game. We have a tricky start against West Ham United, Crystal Palace - the two derbies - and then Liverpool straight after. We need to keep a high level of urgency to start well because last year we had that problem.

"

However, those high hopes evaporated on the opening weekend of the Premier League season. Despite all the positive momentum, Arsenal’s title bandwagon lurched to a halt with a 2-0 defeat at home to West Ham United. Familiar failings returned and Gunners supporters were left wondering if their title hopes had been little more than a mirage.

Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images

Since then, Arsenal have muddled through the first month of the season to unspectacular effect. They edged past Crystal Palace thanks to an own goal, were arguably lucky to escape from a home tie with Liverpool with a 0-0, then snatched three points at St. James’ Park thanks to another opposition player putting through his own net.

That means Arsenal have taken seven points from the first available 12. It’s not a disastrous start by any means, especially compared with that made by the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United, but it’s not the emphatic opening they hoped for.

Last season, Arsenal shot themselves in the foot by stumbling out of the blocks, winning just two of their opening eight games. It opened up a gap that ultimately proved impossible to close, despite Arsenal’s vast improvement after Christmas.

Speaking ahead of the 2015/16 kick-off, Per Mertesacker emphasised the importance of making a strong start this time around. Speaking to Arsenal Player (h/t Jim van Wijk of the Independent), he said:

"

We need to be at our best. We have shown in the (FA) Cup that we can be consistent for six games. We want to extend that and show that we are real title contenders from the start, not only in the second half of the season.

We want to be ready right from the start and not getting as many injuries as last season would be lovely and good for us.

The belief is still there - we always had a certain belief in ourselves - and to win trophies back to back is something special, but let's add that little extra to be a competitor for the whole season.

"

Arsenal’s form on the road is impressive, but it’s home results that generally form the bedrock of a title charge. To have won neither of the two opening games at the Emirates Stadium is a real concern.

Although it may not look like a particularly poor start now, it’s easy to see how it could quickly become one. Before the middle of October, the Gunners must face Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United. It’s vital for the atmosphere around the club that they come through those ties without suffering a demoralising defeat.

There’s also the form of other teams to consider. Arsenal’s start may be acceptable, but it pales in comparison to the way Manchester City have shot out of the blocks. Big-spending City have won all four of their opening league games—they currently have 12 points from a possible 12.

Moreover, they’re doing it in style. City look like potential champions, whereas Arsenal still seem to be some way away from that form. Simply put, Arsenal are not playing with the swagger of title winners. 

Clive Mason/Getty Images

In the past, Arsenal have been characterised by their attractive playing style. However, thus far this season, their performances have been unusually insipid and uninspired. Be it rustiness or a more fundamental problem, their attacking game is yet to click into gear.

Many fans hoped that situation would be amended in the transfer market. Although the recruitment of Cech was universally regarded as a good move, the hope was it would prove to be the first in a series of several transfers to strengthen Wenger’s hand. A new centre-forward would certainly have enlivened Arsenal’s attacking game. However, deadline day passed without incident, and news of Danny Welbeck’s knee surgery means Arsenal’s forward options are actually worse than many anticipated.

At this stage, anything remains possible. Although Jose Mourinho’s teams tend to rely on a blistering start to win the title, leading from the front from the outset of the campaign, Wenger has shown in the past that he can lead a team to glory from behind. There is still plenty of time for Arsenal to find the form needed to launch a credible title challenge.

Nevertheless, significant improvement is required in order to achieve that. Although the lack of transfer activity is a concern, it needn’t be the end of Arsenal’s title hopes: They still have the quality in their squad to go toe-to-toe with anyone. What they need is to hit a run of form, and fast.

It’s too soon for Arsenal to abandon their hopes of winning the league. It’s still eminently possible. However, it will a require a swift and significant upturn in their performances. If Arsenal haven’t found their rhythm by mid-October, they may find themselves staring down the barrel of another season of underachievement.

The Gunners must improve quickly to avoid being "nearly men" once again.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and is following the club from a London base throughout 2015/16. Follow him on Twitter here.