Who Has the NBA's Top Interior Tandem?
The NBA's game might be changing, but the importance of size isn't.
There are, of course, new demands placed on those monsters in the middle. Having size alone isn't enough. It has to be coupled with skill, and there would ideally be some speed, mobility, versatility and athleticism added in as well.
But good bigs are still incredibly valuable. They can generate point-blank scoring chances, prevent opponents from finding those same shots, free up perimeter players with bone-rattling screens and help balance the floor with their gravitational pull on opposing defenses.
"Truly elite towers are the ones who incorporate as many devices as possible...into an ever-expanding tool belt," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "And as long as the NBA necessitates that versatility, anyone willing to conform in some way can survive. Even the traditional big man."
Today's behemoths come in all shapes, sizes and play styles. So how does one decide which interior tandems rise above the rest?
By The Numbers
Using the projected depth charts on ESPN.com, we can identify the likely starting frontcourt combos for all 30 teams entering the 2015-16 campaign. From there, those dyads can be broken down by statistical performance, on-court fit and league-wide stature to crown the league's premier post partnership.
Since statistics are part of this equation, the clubs projected to have an opening-night rookie starter on the frontcourt have been excluded. That means there won't be any Minnesota Timberwolves (Karl-Anthony Towns), Philadelphia 76ers (Jahlil Okafor) or Sacramento Kings (Willie Cauley-Stein) sightings beyond this point.
Maybe next year, fellas.
For the 27 duos still in the mix, their performances in three statistical categories—points, rebounds and player efficiency rating—are displayed in the graph below.
Clearly, not all frontcourt combos are created equally.
The gap between the top-scoring tandem (LaMarcus Aldridge and Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs) and the least productive pair (Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi, Indiana Pacers) is a whopping 21.0 points per game. For context, that's what two-time All-Star Damian Lillard poured in on a nightly basis last season.
The 22.6 rebounds per game snared by Los Angeles Clippers' high-fliers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan more than doubled the 9.4 collected by the New York Knicks' new combo of Derrick Williams and Robin Lopez. New Orleans Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis had a higher PER by himself (30.8) than both the Pacers' and Knicks' twosomes (27.0 and 29.0, respectively).
But the separations remain wide even as one moves away from the margins. This means that the first round of cuts is pretty decisive.
Thinning the Herd
To trim this field into a more manageable size, only the 10 teams with the highest average ranking in each category will advance.
| Clippers (Griffin-Jordan) | 33.4 (3) | 22.6 (1) | 43.8 (4) | 2.67 |
| Spurs (Aldridge-Duncan) | 37.3 (1) | 19.3 (4) | 45.4 (3) | 2.67 |
| Pelicans (Davis-Asik) | 31.7 (6) | 20.0 (3) | 46.3 (1) | 3.33 |
| Grizzlies (Randolph-Gasol) | 33.5 (2) | 18.3 (5) | 41.2 (7) | 4.67 |
| Heat (Bosh-Whiteside) | 32.9 (4) | 17.0 (10) | 46.0 (2) | 5.33 |
| Bulls (Gasol-Noah) | 25.7 (13) | 21.4 (2) | 38.0 (10) | 8.33 |
| Hawks (Millsap-Horford) | 31.9 (5) | 15.0 (16) | 41.4 (6) | 9.00 |
| Jazz (Favors-Gobert) | 24.4 (17) | 17.7 (7) | 43.4 (5) | 9.67 |
| Pistons (Ilyasova-Drummond) | 25.3 (16) | 18.3 (5) | 38.2 (9) | 10.00 |
| Rockets (Howard-Jones) | 27.5 (10) | 17.2 (9) | 37.5 (12) | 10.33 |
Despite a few minor surprises, the stat sheet largely tells the same story as the eye test.
Last season's All-Star Game roster included 11 natural power forwards and centers. Only two of them failed to make this cut: DeMarcus Cousins (who was ineligible for having a rookie frontcourt partner) and Dirk Nowitzki (whose Dallas Mavericks scrambled to add Zaza Pachulia after being spurned by Jordan in free agency).
Some may be astonished to see the world champion Golden State Warriors denied one of these 10 spots, especially when considering their frontcourt featured two All-Defensive selections (Draymond Green, First Team, and Andrew Bogut, Second Team). But there were a lot of hands in the Dubs' offensive pot, and it didn't help that the oft-injured Bogut logged just 23.6 minutes per game.
Arguably the two biggest surprises to make the cut are the Utah Jazz (Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors) and the Detroit Pistons (Ersan Ilyasova and Andre Drummond). But these numbers don't lie—their spots were well-earned.
Drummond did the heavy lifting for Detroit with his astronomical rebounding (13.5, second overall) and efficiency (21.4 PER, tied for 21st) numbers. Gobert and Favors punched their ticket with terrific glass work and uber-efficient shooting (combined 55.0 field-goal percentage).
But there's more to playing in the post than scoring and rebounding. For a lot of these players, their best work comes at the defensive end of the floor.
Unfortunately, that isn't the easiest area to objectively measure. But the analytics movement has yielded some useful defensive metrics.
The two used to help compile these rankings are PER against (via 82games.com) and defensive real plus-minus (via ESPN.com). The chart below shows the combined stats in those categories for the 10 teams still standing. Remember, this PER metric works like a golf score—the lower the better.
By lumping all of these stats together, we find that the margin at the top is razor-thin.
Separating the Best from the Rest
The top-five teams had an average ranking between 3.4 (New Orleans, Davis and Omer Asik) and 5.2 (Miami Heat, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside). The Spurs (3.8), Memphis Grizzlies (3.8, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) and Clippers (4.4) filled out our quintet.
Thinning this group actually starts with removing the highest-ranking club.
The Pelicans don't have a great tandem, they have a great (single-browed) player. Davis, whom new Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry called "the best player in the NBA not named LeBron James," via John Reid of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, single-handedly carried New Orleans this far. But Asik's crippling offensive limitations are too much to overcome here.
The Heat are the next ones to hit the chopping block. On paper, there's so much to like about the Bosh-Whiteside pairing. The former offers tremendous versatility on both sides of the ball. The latter is a dynamic interior weapon, who shot 62.8 percent from the field and averaged an absurd 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes last season.
But Bosh is 31 years old and returning from a devastating medical issue. Whiteside has a total of 67 NBA games and 32 starts under his belt. It's reasonable—if not imperative—to question how well they'll work together over the course of a full season.
Outside of Davis, the Clippers might have the most talented player in this discussion in Griffin. And Jordan continues to push his ceiling higher by posting personal bests in points, rebounds and field-goal percentage during each of the past two seasons.
But L.A. deployed only an average defense when the pair played together (102.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, which would have ranked 15th overall). Jordan's woeful 41.7 career free-throw percentage can make him hard to play at critical times. And that pair, plus All-Star floor general Chris Paul, has been unable to carry the Clippers past the second round of the postseason.
In Randolph and Gasol, the Grizzlies have a couple of tonesetters. Between their high-low post precision and suffocating defense, they "force teams to adjust their rotations and matchup with the Grizzlies," as explained by ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan. Most teams don't match up well. Memphis outscored opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions with Randolph and Gasol on the floor.
But neither player would qualify as a go-to scorer. Randolph hasn't posted a 20-plus-points-per-game scoring average since 2010-11, and Gasol just set a career-high with 17.4 last season. Each player is also on the wrong side of 30, so it's possible the best days for these Bash Brothers are behind them.
The Coronation
Our winning frontcourt actually features the oldest player in these rankings. At least, it would if Tim Duncan actually aged like the rest of us.
The 39-year-old dazzled last season, his 18th in the NBA. He was an All-Star, All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team selection. ESPN.com's real plus-minus slotted him at 13th overall. Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus pegged him at No. 9.
He's a supremely gifted player, and he's preparing to share the floor with a four-time All-Star in Aldridge, the NBA's only player to average at least 21 points and eight rebounds during each of the past five seasons.
The talent level on the Spurs' revamped frontcourt is staggering. The on-paper fit looks even better.
"Duncan and Aldridge can play together extremely well," wrote CBS Sports' Matt Moore. "There's no redundancy in how they play their respective positions. Each is able to stretch the floor to 18 feet, both can rebound, both can post up and score."
The Duncan-Aldridge pairing has everything: experience, star power, scoring from all over, passing out of the post, rim protection, rebounding. Their collective basketball IQ should help them quickly forge the chemistry that can sometimes take years to create.
"I see myself fitting in well," Aldridge said, via Jim Lefko of the San Antonio Express-News. "My transition into the offense is going to be easy."
Easy enough to lift this newly formed tandem ahead of all other interior challengers.
Even in a downsizing league, there's still an abundance of fantastic frontcourt pairings. And the best for the 2015-16 campaign resides in the Alamo City.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
