Fantasy Football Week 1: Biggest Takeaways from Sunday
With the bulk of Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season now in the books, it’s time to take a look at some of the biggest takeaways from Sunday.
It’s important not to read too much into what happens in Week 1—it’s the ultimate week for overreactions—but it can also be a harbinger of things to come.
So what stood out in Week 1?
One of the biggest stories revolves around one of the biggest names: Peyton Manning. Fantasy owners who were nervous about Manning heading into the season are surely squirming in their seats now. On the flip side, those who gambled on a rookie running back must be feeling pretty good about that pick right about now.
Speaking of rookies, Marcus Mariota dominated in his first game. But what does it mean for his fantasy value?
Additionally, one running back who didn’t even play in Week 1 saw his value jump.
This article will go over all of these takeaways and more, starting with Manning’s 2015 season opener.
Peyton Manning’s Red Flags Show Early
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The risks associated with Peyton Manning were known prior to the 2015 season. The biggest questions were about Manning’s health: Will his body hold up? For how long?
Unfortunately, it appears Manning might not make it quite as long before dwindling as people hoped. He didn’t get off to the best of starts in Week 1. Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit shared this tweet of an ugly pass from Manning early in the Denver vs. Baltimore game:
"Peyton says happy birthday TO THE GROUND https://t.co/LA2ytM8leB
— Rich Hill (@PP_Rich_Hill) September 13, 2015"
Manning followed this play up by overthrowing an open Emmanuel Sanders in the end zone.
This isn’t an easy throw for Manning to make—and it might be one of the last times we see Denver roll him out to this side of the field unless it’s a short screen pass—but it did raise a few red flags. Manning threw a few more ducks like this throughout the game.
According to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, Manning's yards per attempt (YPA) of 4.38 in Week 1 was the fourth-lowest mark of his career:
"Peyton Manning with the 4th-lowest YPA (4.38) of his career (min. 10 passes). That's very very troubling. Passing game looked like Indy loss
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) September 13, 2015"
We should not overreact to Manning’s Week 1 performance; Baltimore didn’t get much going on offense either—perhaps this was just an off day for both teams. However, this was a known concern with Manning. It’s not like it’s coming out of nowhere. That makes the questions more legitimate, even though we really shouldn’t be asking too many questions after just one week of football.
It's not time to jump ship on Manning yet, but it couldn’t hurt to see what kind of value you’d get in return for a trade.
Rookie Running Backs Turn Heads in Week 1
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This year’s group of rookie running backs was expected to impress. In fact, I highlighted the crop prior to the season.
But nobody was expecting the impact to be this immediate. Russell Clay, writer at Pro Football Focus: Fantasy, had this simple reaction when watching the new group in Week 1:
"We aren't even ready for these rookie running backs.
— Russell Clay (@RussellJClay) September 13, 2015"
Clay sent that tweet out immediately after San Diego’s Melvin Gordon flipped over a defender en route to a touchdown. The score was later called back, but Gordon’s athleticism was on full display.
Ameer Abdullah didn’t disappoint in his debut, either. The darling of the preseason took his first carry 24 yards for a touchdown. He also broke a few ankles in the process and had All-Pro safety Eric Weddle tackling air. This GIF of Abdullah's touchdown run is courtesy of SB Nation:
"Ameer Abdullah’s first career carry ended in a touchdown: http://t.co/xfb5yD9yYX pic.twitter.com/rDtippkWDp
— SB Nation (@SBNation) September 13, 2015"
Arizona’s David Johnson was quiet for most of the game, but he showed up big for the Cardinals when it mattered most. The rookie took a screen pass 55 yards to the house to ice the game versus the New Orleans Saints.
"David Johnson! He good. Could be great if Andre Ellington out for a while.
— Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg) September 13, 2015"
CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg is referring to Andre Ellington in the above tweet, as Ellington left the game on a cart prior to Johnson’s catch-and-run. It was a non-contact knee injury for Ellington—an injury that could force Johnson into the spotlight sooner than expected. He looks ready.
Buffalo’s Karlos Williams got in on the action as well, carrying the ball six times for 55 yards and a score against the Indianapolis Colts.
Mariota Outshines Winston in Rookie Debut
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Marcus Mariota’s first drive ended in a 52-yard touchdown pass to Kendall Wright off a beautiful play-action fake:
"Marcus Mariota's got this NFL thing DOWN. 52-yard TD to Kendall Wright? Yes, please. #TENvsTB http://t.co/LztvROd6A6
— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2015"
Jameis Winston’s first drive (and first pass) also ended in a touchdown—for the Titans.
Mariota finished the first half (and the game) with four touchdown passes. By the end of the game, Mariota had more fantasy points than every quarterback other than Tom Brady and Carson Palmer. And he did it without doing anything on the ground (just two rushes for six yards).
This may end up being Mariota’s best game of the season—he won’t be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers every week, after all—but it was the most promising debut imaginable.
According to Elias, as noted on ESPN.com, Mariota became the first player in NFL history to throw for four touchdowns in the first half of his first career game. He also had a perfect NFL quarterback rating of 158.3.
For his part, Winston finished the game with 210 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. The rookie ran the ball six times and gained 18 yards on the ground. Winston was playing without Mike Evans, but it’d be hard to argue that Evans would have made all the difference. This is a work in progress (as it usually is with rookies).
Winston looks like tail-end QB2 material this season and isn't worth a roster spot at this time. Mariota, on the other hand, appears to be a solid backup quarterback option with obvious upside.
With that said, let’s wait more than one game before crowning or drowning either player.
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Spiller Owners Rejoice: Saints RBs Tallied 15 Receptions, 154 Yards
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If you are a C.J. Spiller owner, odds are you were pretty happy in Week 1 even though he wasn’t playing.
That’s because the New Orleans backfield of Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Austin Johnson combined for 15 receptions for 154 yards.
New Orleans pass-catchers—including Brandin Cooks, Brandon Coleman, Marques Colston, Ben Watson and Willie Snead—combined for 15 receptions for 201 yards.
In other words, New Orleans’ running backs were nearly as productive as the team’s receivers and tight ends through the air. Drew Brees seems content with dumping it off, and it’s no secret that once Spiller returns to action, he’ll be the team’s primary pass-catching back.
Spiller could be putting up tail-end RB1 numbers in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
Rough Day for the Indianapolis Colts Offense
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It was a tough first game of the 2015 NFL season for Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. By the time it was all said and done, Luck had somewhat salvaged his day with two touchdowns, but a poor connection with Andre Johnson and an injury to T.Y. Hilton are reasons for concern.
Johnson caught only four passes on 10 targets for 24 yards. He also dropped a two-point conversion attempt. The chemistry between Johnson and Luck should improve as the season progresses, but it wasn’t nearly as smooth of a debut as fantasy owners would have liked.
Perhaps more importantly, Luck’s top option—Hilton—left the game with a knee injury and didn’t return. He had seven receptions for 88 yards on 14 targets before leaving the game.
Hilton's injury doesn't appear to be major, but it also doesn't appear to be a simple nick, either. According to Zak Keefer, Indianapolis Colts reporter for the Indianapolis Star, Hilton will likely miss a few weeks.
"Irsay: X-ray on TY Hilton's knee was negative, just a bad bruise. Likely still out a few weeks.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 13, 2015"
Indianapolis’ offense has too many weapons to stay in a slump, but with an injury to Hilton and a work-in-progress relationship between Luck and Johnson, we may need to rein in our expectations just a bit.
James Jones Fills the Nelson-Sized Hole in Green Bay
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James Jones went from being unwanted by several NFL teams just a few weeks ago to starring for the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears.
Jones caught four passes for 51 yards and two scores for the Packers. He nearly hauled in a third touchdown late in the game, but he drew a defense pass-interference call near the goal line instead. (The pass interference led to an Eddie Lacy touchdown run.)
In short, Jones proved immensely valuable to the Packers—a team that has no shortage of weapons but was undoubtedly looking to fill the hole left by Jordy Nelson.
Jones is not going to catch two touchdowns every week—and he’s not going to put up Nelson-like numbers this season—but he gains immediate fantasy appeal as an Aaron Rodgers-approved wideout nonetheless. It’s clear Rodgers still trusts Jones, which is no surprise considering Jones caught 14 touchdowns for the Packers in 2012.
It’s always dangerous to overreact to Week 1 breakouts, but in the case of Jones, at least some of the hype is warranted. Considering his history with the Packers (and, as a result, the rapport he shares with Rodgers), his track record of catching touchdowns and the need he fills in Green Bay’s offense, Jones could be one of the rare unexpected Week 1 breakouts who turns into a viable fantasy option all season long.
Tyler Eifert Breakout Talk Gets Validated
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Cincinnati’s offense dominated the Oakland Raiders in Week 1, and one of the key players in the rout was tight end Tyler Eifert. He was a popular breakout pick heading into the 2015 season, and he certainly looked like he belonged in Week 1.
Eifert caught nine passes for 104 yards and two scores against the Raiders. Only Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Rob Gronkowski scored more fantasy points at the tight end position than Eifert (and Travis Kelce scored the same amount).
It was an impressive outing for Eifert, who missed virtually all of last season with an elbow injury.
Week 1 could end up being Eifert’s best game of the season, but he is now squarely in the TE1 conversation and is a threat to break into the top five in points scored by season’s end.
Jimmy Graham’s Solid Debut for the Seahawks
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Jimmy Graham’s first game with the Seattle Seahawks showed us that he should be right at home with his new team. He found the end zone—another place he could call home, given the number of touchdowns (52) he has scored in his career—in Week 1.
Graham’s touchdown is obviously a positive, but even more encouraging is the fact that Russell Wilson looked his way often in the red zone. Wilson had a terrible fade pass attempt to Graham, so the targets weren’t all top-notch, but in this case, it’s the thought that counts.
That sounds hollow, but it’s true.
It appears as though the Seahawks will keep going back to Graham in the red zone, which is huge for his fantasy value. This shouldn’t come as a surprise—why else would Seattle have traded for him if it didn’t plan to use him where he’s best?—but it was still good to see Graham in action.
The hulking tight end caught six of eight targets for 51 yards and a score.
Graham won’t compete with Gronkowski for the top spot among tight ends this season—Seattle will continue to rely on Marshawn Lynch—but he hasn’t fallen off the face of the fantasy world, either. Week 1 confirmed that Graham will indeed remain an elite TE1 option.
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